2009-10 Outlook
After losing in the first round of the West playoffs for five straight seasons, George Karl & the Nuggets finally turned the corner in '08-09, reaching the conference finals before falling to the Lakers in six games. Only some late game meltdowns in that series kept the Nuggets from the NBA Finals. Their 54 regular season wins teild their most since the old ABA days over 30 years ago and the sudden resrugence can be traced back to one singular moment...the trade that brought Chauncey Billups in from Detroit. With him, the Nuggets were better on both ends and now they figure to be a contender from wire-to-wire.

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +1200
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 52.5
StatFox Steve's Take: The Nuggets won 12 straight games agianst the spread during the playoffs last year. Only elite teams can do that. Look for at least 56 wins this year.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Head Coach: Kurt Rambis
Conference: Western
Division: Northwest (2008-09: 4th)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 24-58 SU (-12.9 ML Units), 37-44 ATS

StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -5 (#25 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 90 (#26 of 30)

2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 97.8 (21), 102.7 (22)
Scoring Margin: -4.9 (25)
Points Per Possession: 1.262 (24), 1.338 (27)
Field Goal Pct.: 44.1% (29), 47.4% (26)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 35.3% (24), 37.7% (22)
Free Throw Pct.: 76.9% (15), 77.8% (22)
Rebound Differential: +1.88 (7)
Assists/Game: 20.4 (17), 21.5 (20)
Turnovers/Game: 13.5 (13), 12.1 (27)

2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 37-44 (46%)
at Home ATS: 11-29 (28%)
on Road ATS: 26-15 (63%)
vs. West ATS: 26-26 (50%)
vs. East ATS: 11-18 (38%)
vs. Division ATS: 8-8 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-8 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 32-35 (48%)
in Playoffs ATS: 0-0 (0%)
Over-Under: 38-44 (46%)

Offseason Player Movement
Additions: PG Antonio Daniels, PG Jonny Flynn, C Ryan Hollins, SG Sasha Pavlovic, PG Ramon Sessions, SF Damien Wilkins
Subtractions: C Jason Collins, G Randy Foye, F Mark Madsen, G Mike Miller, PG Kevin Ollie, PG Sebastian Telfair
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Al Jefferson • F Ryan Gomes • C Kevin Love • G Corey Brewer • G Ramon Sessions 

Top StatFox Team Power Trends

2009-10 Outlook
Minnesota won just 24 games a year ago and at one point was 4-23. While expected to be another season-long step in the rebuilding process, things got even uglier than envisioned, so much so that GM Kevin McHale fired Coach Randy Wittman and took over on the bench himself. Now, after what could be described as nothing other than an insane offseason, the Timberwolves head into '09-10 with talent but question marks all over the place. Kurt Rambis takes over as Head Coach, and his first task will be to build some chemistry from an almost entirely new roster. Strangely, Minnesota was 11-29 ATS at home and 26-15 ATS on the road.

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +10000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 25.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Way too many young unproven players on this Western Conference team to think there will be an improvement. Sub-20 wins for me & UNDER.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Head Coach: Scott Brooks
Conference: Western
Division: Northwest (2008-09: 5th)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 23-59 SU (-14.9 ML Units), 44-36 ATS

StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -6.3 (#27 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 91 (#24 of 30)

2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 97.0 (24), 103.1 (23)
Scoring Margin: -6.1 (27)
Points Per Possession: 1.229 (29), 1.311 (20)
Field Goal Pct.: 44.7% (26), 47.5% (27)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 34.7% (28), 36.4% (13)
Free Throw Pct.: 78.6% (9), 76.1% (9)
Rebound Differential: +1.35 (11)
Assists/Game: 20.3 (20), 21.6 (21)
Turnovers/Game: 15.5 (30), 13.5 (14)

2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 44-36 (55%)
at Home ATS: 20-19 (51%)
on Road ATS: 24-17 (59%)
vs. West ATS: 29-23 (56%)
vs. East ATS: 15-13 (54%)
vs. Division ATS: 9-7 (56%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-6 (40%)
as Underdog ATS: 40-28 (59%)
in Playoffs ATS: 0-0 (0%)
Over-Under: 41-40 (51%)

Offseason Player Movement
Additions: SG James Harden, PG Kevin Ollie, C Etan Thomas
Subtractions: PG Chucky Atkins, SG Damien Wilkins
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Kevin Durant • F Jeff Green • C Nenad Krstic • G James Harden • G Russell Westbrook 

Top StatFox Team Power Trends

2009-10 Outlook
After P.J. Carlesimo guided the Thunder to a 1-12 start in their first 13 games as representatives of Oklahoma City, the team moved on with Scott Brooks, who led them to a 22-47 "improvement". The Thunder were competitive to a degree, finishing the season with a respectable 44-36 ATS mark. Like a lot of young teams, hustle and determination in areas like rebounding and forcing turnovers on defense paid off. For '09-10, the Thunder adds another young stud to the starting five in SG James Harden of Arizona State. Between he, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Russell Westbrook, coach Brooks boasts a group of some of the top players in recent college hoops.

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +10000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 34.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Oddsmakers are awfully exuberant in creating this prop. A team as young as this one and outscored by 6.1 PPG last season is not winning 35 games. UNDER.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Head Coach: Nate McMillan
Conference: Western
Division: Northwest (2008-09: 2nd)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 54-28 SU (+15.9 ML Units), 45-36 ATS

StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.3 (#6 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 105 (#2 of 30)

2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 99.4 (14), 94.1 (4)
Scoring Margin: +5.3 (5)
Points Per Possession: 1.364 (1), 1.284 (10)
Field Goal Pct.: 46.5% (8), 46.0% (17)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 38.3% (4), 37.5% (20)
Free Throw Pct.: 76.5% (17), 80.3% (30)
Rebound Differential: +5.72 (1)
Assists/Game: 20.3 (19), 19.4 (5)
Turnovers/Game: 12.1 (6), 12.7 (23)

2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 48-39 (55%)
at Home ATS: 27-16 (63%)
on Road ATS: 21-23 (48%)
vs. West ATS: 31-26 (54%)
vs. East ATS: 17-13 (57%)
vs. Division ATS: 9-7 (56%)
as Favorite ATS: 34-23 (60%)
as Underdog ATS: 13-16 (45%)
in Playoffs ATS: 3-3 (50%)
Over-Under: 41-46 (47%)

Offseason Player Movement
Additions: PF Juwan Howard, PG Andre Miller
Subtractions: PF Channing Frye, PG Sergio Rodriguez
Projected Starting Lineup: • F LaMarcus Aldridge • F Nicolas Batum • C Greg Oden • G Brandon Roy • G Andre Miller 

Top StatFox Team Power Trends

2009-10 Outlook
Portland's 54 wins were its most since the '99-00 season, but unfortunately, in the NBA, a team is judged by its postseason success, and the Blazers were knocked out by Houston in six games in the first round. In that series, Portland eclipsed the 90-point mark just once, suggesting the need to upgrade at certain spots. The team did just that, adding PG Andre Miller to a lineup that is abundant in young maturing talent. That should take some of the pressure off of Brandon Roy in creating and let him concentrate more on simply scoring. This is clearly a team to be contended with for the next few years assuming it stays healthy.

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +1500
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 53.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Portland is one of the best young teams in the NBA, and its home court advantage is becoming among the league's best as well. I'm envisioning high 50's wins. OVER.

UTAH JAZZ
Head Coach: Jerry Sloan
Conference: Western
Division: Northwest (2008-09: 3rd)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 48-34 SU (-9.1 ML Units), 39-43 ATS

StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.9 (#9 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 96 (#12 of 30)

2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 103.6 (7), 100.9 (19)
Scoring Margin: +2.6 (9)
Points Per Possession: 1.315 (8), 1.284 (11)
Field Goal Pct.: 47.5% (3), 46.4% (20)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 34.9% (27), 36.1% (12)
Free Throw Pct.: 77.1% (13), 76.3% (11)
Rebound Differential: +1.09 (12)
Assists/Game: 24.7 (1), 20.0 (9)
Turnovers/Game: 14.3 (24), 15.7 (2)

2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 42-45 (48%)
at Home ATS: 23-20 (53%)
on Road ATS: 19-25 (43%)
vs. West ATS: 29-28 (51%)
vs. East ATS: 13-17 (43%)
vs. Division ATS: 5-11 (31%)
as Favorite ATS: 30-26 (54%)
as Underdog ATS: 11-18 (38%)
in Playoffs ATS: 3-2 (60%)
Over-Under: 45-41 (52%)

Offseason Player Movement
Additions: PG Eric Maynor
Subtractions: None
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Carlos Boozer • F Andrei Kirilenko • C Mehmet Okur • G Ronnie Brewer • G Deron Williams  

Top StatFox Team Power Trends

2009-10 Outlook
After a couple of deeper playoff runs in the two seasons prior, Utah was bounced in Round 1 of the '09 postseason after landing a less-than-favorable matchup with the Lakers as the #8 seed. The Jazz took backwards steps in a variety of different aspects. First, they couldn't defend like usual, as opponents were able to shoot over 46% from the floor, putting Utah as the league's 20th best defensive team. They also lost eight regular season games at home after dropping four in '07-08. Finally, the Jazz were 3-18 SU & 5-16 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games, an obvious problem. Utah will give it another run with a nearly identical roster this season.

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +2500
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 49.5
StatFox Steve's Take: I like Deron Williams and the style of play with which the Jazz win, but I'm going to pass on this prop. I think this one could come down to the season's final games.