2009-10 Outlook
"First-year coach Rick Carlisle helped create a turnaround in Big D, as the spunky and spirited Mavs fought their way to a 50-win season and a deeply satisfying first-round playoff series win over bitter rival San Antonio. With role players such as Juan Barea and Brandon Bass providing energy and production, the likes of Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki didn't have to shoulder the load themselves. The scoring load will be lightened even further for those two with the addition of high-flying Shawn Marion. After looking like a team on the downswing, things are suddenly looking rosier for Marc Cuban's bunch.
"

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +4000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 49
StatFox Steve's Take: If Josh Howard can return to the form he dispalyed in 2008, this team is fully capable of climbing back up into the mid-50's for wins. Take OVER.

HOUSTON ROCKETS
Head Coach: Rick Adelman
Conference: Western
Division: Southwest (2008-09: 2nd)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 53-29 SU (+13.1 ML Units), 40-41 ATS

StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +3.7 (#7 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 102 (#6 of 30)

2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 98.4 (17), 94.4 (7)
Scoring Margin: +4.0 (6)
Points Per Possession: 1.297 (14), 1.244 (4)
Field Goal Pct.: 45.3% (22), 44.4% (5)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 37.5% (10), 35.7% (11)
Free Throw Pct.: 80.5% (5), 74.9% (1)
Rebound Differential: +2.87 (3)
Assists/Game: 20.3 (22), 19.8 (8)
Turnovers/Game: 13.3 (12), 11.9 (28)

2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 46-48 (49%)
at Home ATS: 23-23 (50%)
on Road ATS: 23-25 (48%)
vs. West ATS: 30-35 (46%)
vs. East ATS: 16-13 (55%)
vs. Division ATS: 7-9 (44%)
as Favorite ATS: 29-31 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 16-15 (52%)
in Playoffs ATS: 6-7 (46%)
Over-Under: 43-51 (46%)

Offseason Player Movement
Additions: C David Andersen, SF Trevor Ariza
Subtractions: SF Ron Artest, C Dikembe Mutombo, SG Von Wafer
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Luis Scola • F Trevor Ariza • C David Andersen • G Shane Battier • G Aaron Brooks 

Top StatFox Team Power Trends

2009-10 Outlook
If the Houston Rockets had no luck at all, they would be in better position than they are now. What other franchise has more snake bitten than this one? Injuries continue to devastate an otherwise solid club, and now the Rockets face the 2009-10 season with C Yao Ming and the departed Ron Artest. The replacements? Try David Andersen and Trevor Ariza. Even Rick Adelman, a coach known for getting the most out of his players, will have a tough time turning this mess into anything positive. Having won 53 games a year ago and their first playoff series since '97, its quite a shame what happened to Houston.

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +4000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 36
StatFox Steve's Take: Houston's short-handed playoff effort vs. the Lakers in the second round was commendable, but they won't be able to do it for 82 games. UNDER.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Head Coach: Marc Iavaroni
Conference: Western
Division: Southwest (2008-09: 5th)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 24-58 SU (-27.2 ML Units), 38-42 ATS

StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -5.5 (#26 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 96 (#12 of 30)

2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 93.9 (29), 99.3 (14)
Scoring Margin: -5.5 (26)
Points Per Possession: 1.246 (28), 1.313 (21)
Field Goal Pct.: 45.4% (21), 47.3% (25)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 36.0% (21), 35.5% (10)
Free Throw Pct.: 75.6% (22), 77.0% (16)
Rebound Differential: -0.54 (17)
Assists/Game: 17.4 (30), 21.2 (17)
Turnovers/Game: 14.2 (22), 13.9 (9)

2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 38-42 (48%)
at Home ATS: 19-20 (49%)
on Road ATS: 19-22 (46%)
vs. West ATS: 23-28 (45%)
vs. East ATS: 15-14 (52%)
vs. Division ATS: 8-7 (53%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-10 (33%)
as Underdog ATS: 33-32 (51%)
in Playoffs ATS: 0-0 (0%)
Over-Under: 38-43 (47%)

Offseason Player Movement
Additions: SG Allen Iverson, PF Zach Randolph, C Hasheem Thabeet
Subtractions: G Greg Buckner, C Darko Milicic, SF Quinton Ross, PF Hakim Warrick
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Zach Randolph • F Rudy Gay • C Marc Gasol • G Mike Conley • G O.J. Mayo 

Top StatFox Team Power Trends

2009-10 Outlook
At one point last season, Memphis lost 20 of 22 games, eventually finishing with a 24-58 record. While that was a two-game improvement over the two seasons prior, a continued climb seems unlikely. Key younger players like Hakim Warrick and Darko Milicic have been replaced by roster-degrading personalities like Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson. Hopefully those two don't have too much influence on new draftee Hasheem Thabeet & 2nd year pro O.J. Mayo, who struggled shooting the ball in his rookie year. The Grizzlies finished 26 games behind New Orleans for 4th place in the Southwest Division. That gap will narrow but not by much.

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +10000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 27.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Player-for-player, Memphis boasts a lot of talent. The problem is NBA basketball is a team game and the mix is too radical to expect much. UNDER.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Head Coach: Byron Scott
Conference: Western
Division: Southwest (2008-09: 4th)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 49-33 SU (-8.5 ML Units), 36-45 ATS

StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.0 (#14 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 89 (#27 of 30)

2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 95.8 (26), 94.3 (5)
Scoring Margin: +1.5 (13)
Points Per Possession: 1.309 (11), 1.282 (9)
Field Goal Pct.: 45.7% (14), 45.0% (7)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 36.4% (17), 35.4% (8)
Free Throw Pct.: 80.7% (4), 77.3% (19)
Rebound Differential: -1.28 (22)
Assists/Game: 19.6 (28), 20.1 (11)
Turnovers/Game: 11.7 (3), 12.5 (24)

2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 36-50 (42%)
at Home ATS: 20-23 (47%)
on Road ATS: 16-27 (37%)
vs. West ATS: 23-33 (41%)
vs. East ATS: 13-17 (43%)
vs. Division ATS: 9-6 (60%)
as Favorite ATS: 28-33 (46%)
as Underdog ATS: 7-17 (29%)
in Playoffs ATS: 0-5 (0%)
Over-Under: 36-48 (43%)

Offseason Player Movement
Additions: PG Darren Collison, C Emeka Okafor, PF Darius Songaila
Subtractions: SG Rasual Butler, C Tyson Chandler, PG Antonio Daniels
Projected Starting Lineup: • F David West • F Peja Stojakovic • C Emeka Okafor • G James Posey • G Chris Paul  

Top StatFox Team Power Trends

2009-10 Outlook
It wouldn't be an understatement to say that the Hornets quit when down in the playoffs last year to Denver. How else do you explain the fact that they were beaten by 58 points on their home floor in a postseason game? The truth is that there were signs all year long that New Orleans didn't have the magic it had in the prior season when they were playing cohesively and emerging as a legitimate contender. The '08-09 team was just 36-50 ATS, a sure fire underachieving, or perhaps overrated group. With Emeka Okafor changing spots with Tyson Chandler, HC Byron Scott will again try to find that glue that bound his club together two seasons ago.

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +4000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 45
StatFox Steve's Take: I'm going to lean OVER on this Hornets' win prop not because I believe they will be improved, but because Houston's fall will be the rest of the Southwest's gain.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Head Coach: Gregg Popovich
Conference: Western
Division: Southwest (2008-09: 1st)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 54-28 SU (+5.9 ML Units), 40-40 ATS

StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.7 (#8 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 97 (#10 of 30)

2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 97.0 (23), 93.3 (2)
Scoring Margin: +3.8 (7)
Points Per Possession: 1.305 (13), 1.251 (5)
Field Goal Pct.: 46.5% (7), 45.3% (9)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 38.6% (3), 37.9% (24)
Free Throw Pct.: 76.1% (19), 76.9% (13)
Rebound Differential: +0.55 (16)
Assists/Game: 21.2 (12), 18.1 (1)
Turnovers/Game: 11.1 (1), 11.3 (29)

2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 41-44 (48%)
at Home ATS: 18-25 (42%)
on Road ATS: 23-19 (55%)
vs. West ATS: 28-28 (50%)
vs. East ATS: 13-16 (45%)
vs. Division ATS: 9-12 (43%)
as Favorite ATS: 29-31 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 11-12 (48%)
in Playoffs ATS: 1-4 (20%)
Over-Under: 44-43 (51%)

Offseason Player Movement
Additions: PF DeJuan Blair, SF Richard Jefferson, PF Antonio McDyess, C Theo Ratliff
Subtractions: F Bruce Bowen, F Drew Gooden, F Kurt Thomas
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Antonio McDyess • F Richard Jefferson • C Tim Duncan • G Manu Ginobili • G Tony Parker 

Top StatFox Team Power Trends

2009-10 Outlook
It was business as usual for San Antonio last year, that is up until the postseason, when the Spurs were bounced from the first round for the first time since '99-00. The 54 regular season wins went for not. As it was though, there were signs that something was amiss besides the numerous injuries the team was facing. Unusually, they were just 17-23 ATS at home, and 8-8 ATS vs. divisional opponents in the regular season, two characteristically strong performance areas for HC Gregg Popovich's club. For this season, immediate help is on the way in the form of Richard Jefferson, who has been a durable & consistent all-star performer his entire career.

Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +800
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 55
StatFox Steve's Take: I love the move to get Jefferson from Milwaukee as it fills the need for more durability. However, lack of depth is a concern and 55 wins is a lot. Slight lean UNDER.