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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

Upon further review in college football
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 10/25/2009  at  2:42:00 PM
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If you live in the Midwest or are a big fan of Big Ten football, Saturday night’s Iowa at Michigan State game was classic. It was like a ESPN Classic boxing match from the heavyweight division. Two teams trading punches and squelching any chance for either team to score touchdowns once they picked up a scent of the goal line. Give normally conservative Mark Dantonio a slap on the back for having the guts to run hook-and-ladder that set the wheels in motion for Spartans go ahead score at 13-9.

It would be very difficult to make an argument that Iowa has enough talent to be in the top 10, let alone in BCS title contention with first ever 8-0 start. Yet this team never quits, never wilts and stares down adversity like George Clooney in “The Men who stare at Goats” commercials. Iowa quarterback Ricki Stanzi had 78 yards passing for over 58 minutes of football in East Lansing, but he threw for 59 yards in the last 97 seconds when it counted the most for 15-13 victory. Three of the last four remaining Iowa games are in Iowa City, with a mid-Nov. trip to Ohio State. If you had the Hawkeyes plus the points, congratulations, it was probably the night to hit on 16 playing blackjack with the dealer showing a face card. One last thought, how good can Iowa defensive end Adrian Clayborn be, what a huge game.

Wasn’t it just two weeks ago, all of us in the media were falling over ourselves to say how much we loved Alabama? Everybody knew what Nick Saban had brought back talent-wise and the only question mark was quarterback Greg McElroy, who had erased any doubts about his play in the first half of season, right? Well, 11 field goals and one offensive touchdown later, the question mark used to describe McElroy was written in pencil (thankfully) and now is in font size 32 on home computer. Maybe McElroy had seen too much game tape on Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, but his confidence level looks almost as bad as Cleveland’s Derrick Anderson.

Fortunately, McElroy’s misfortune might be kicker Leigh Tiffin’s good fortune; since he’s had more face time lately than if he was on Dancing with the Stars and is Lou Groza contender for best kicker.

Coach Lane Kiffin might have something going in Knoxville quickly, as he’s proving Tennessee can play with the SEC big boys, with a team loaded with restrictions. One negative checkmark on Kiffin is something you see among all coaches, settling for 40ish yard field goals. Maybe Terrence Cody would have blocked a closer kick anyways, yet if coaches have charts telling them what to do in score situations concerning two-point conversions, maybe they should have one to remind them that a kicker makes a much higher percentage of kicks at 30 yards compared 40 yards.

If the Crimson Tide offense doesn’t start crossing the goal line soon, the remaining SEC conflicts against LSU, at Miss. State and at Auburn will be far greater tests than what they considered two weeks ago.

An indication of how bad Notre Dame’s pass defense (117th out of 120) is each week a new opponent brings out a new star receiver you’ve never heard of. This past week it was senior Rich Gunnell, who caught 10 balls for 179 yards. As bad as Washington State is (1-6, 3-4 ATS) do you really want to lay 29-points with Notre Dame?

Bettors smelled a potential upset in Seattle, taking Oregon from -10 to -9 early Saturday morning, with late money taking it back to -9.5. With the Ducks on the road and having monster USC matchup next week and Washington playing competitive football week after week, Oregon drew play against action. The Ducks proved to be vastly superior in 43-19 rout of Washington, their fifth straight win and cover. The outcome might have been the same; however the love-fest for Steve Sarkisian took a hit as he passed up a certain field goal down 8-3 for fourth down kill shot inside Oregon’s five yard line in the second quarter. Like any coach, you have enough faith in your defense that could stop the opposing team and would never have guessed Oregon would drive 96-yards to build 15-3 lead and never look back.

Nonetheless, as an underdog, scoring points helps build momentum and confidence. Would the Ducks likely have won anyways, it would appear so; however a two point lead for Oregon might have made them feel more uncomfortable, with the Huskies crowd and team more in the game. Lost opportunity for Washington bettors.

Things sure do change quickly in college football. It was just five quarters ago, the USC defense was being hailed for assembling a special group after losing a Trojan horse full of talent. Pete Carroll’s suddenly pliable defense has surrendered 49 points in the last 75 minutes of action. After not allowing a touchdown pass for five and half games, that total now stands at five after seven tilts. Sean Canfield, (yes that Sean Canfield) looked as cool and collected like he was playing catch on the Oregon State campus with pals, riddling the USC defense for 328 yards passing. The Beavers gained 482 yards with an outstanding game plan and even totaled 4.5 yards per rush against vaunted USC front and were never in doubt of covering three-touchdown underdog role. With five contests to play, is Oregon State revving up for another late season push and covering a number of spreads?

The announcers at the Clemson at Miami encounter talked frequently about Miami deserving BCS consideration if they win out based on schedule. Evidently Clemson could have cared less and pulled the overtime upset with QB Kyle Parker and C.J. Spiller leading the way. The Tigers raised record to 7-3 and 8-2 ATS as road underdog catching 2.5 or more points since 2004.

When was the last time (if ever) an underdog was getting +16.5 points, scored 45 points and still failed to cover. Ironically, it was Idaho who was 7-0 ATS before last Saturday, losing at Nevada 70-45.

Another coaching blunder was made by Dan Mullen of Mississippi State against top-ranked Florida. Trailing just 16-13, Mullen called a fake punt on his own 30 and it failed. The Gators scored 22 yards later to open a 10-point lead. Why not punt with still over 10 minutes to go and hope your defense forces a Florida turnover, setting up better field position. Even if they had made the first down, chances are the Bulldogs would still have had to go 50-60 yards for touchdown, which they never threaten to do the entire contest. At least MSU backers saw 22.5-point spread covered easily.

Talked about questionable coaching, props to Mack Brown of Texas for how he has the Longhorns ready with the right mindset. Texas scored on first drive, stopped Missouri and got the ball back. Brown knew the Tigers were hurting, knew he had the superior team and was convinced his defense would stop Missouri. Texas went on a fourth and one just inside Missouri territory and made it, which led to 14-0 lead and eventual 41-7 lassoing of Tigers.

Though it cannot be proven since I can’t ask coach Brown myself, the difference looked to be premeditated. Texas wanted to jump on Missouri and be the aggressor; some of the other decisions had the feel of playing in the moment. I’m not saying a coach shouldn’t try and capture a potential game-changing situation, just have a better understanding of risk/reward.

 


 

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