The Chase for the Sprint Cup 10-race extravaganza makes its only restrictor plate stop this weekend in Alabama. The AMP Energy 500 has been called the “wild card” in this year’s Chase, and for good reason, as anything can and usually does happen at Talladega Superspeedway. Frankly, NASCAR needs a wild card or two at this point, as Jimmie Johnson has turned the Chase into his own personal highlight reel again. In search of his 4th straight series title, Johnson has an average finish of 3.0 in the last six races, with three wins and five Top 5’s. For the first time in awhile though, he is not the favorite for Sunday’s race. That honor goes to Tony Stewart, who, at 7-1, leads only four drivers listed with single-digit prices. Here are the current Chase standings heading into race #4:
Place Driver Pts PtsBehind
1. Jimmie Johnson 6098 Leader
2. Mark Martin 5980 -118
3. Jeff Gordon 5948 -150
4. Tony Stewart 5906 -192
5. Juan Montoya 5898 -200
6. Kurt Busch 5858 -240
7. Ryan Newman 5786 -312
8. Greg Biffle 5748 -350
9. Denny Hamlin 5746 -352
10. Carl Edwards 5685 -413
11. Kasey Kahne 5659 -439
12. Brian Vickers 5568 -530
The AMP Energy 500 showcases NASCAR’s biggest track, Talladega Superspeedway. At 2.66 miles around and banking of 33 degrees, this venue is unparalleled in the racing world. The typically breathtaking action has led for Talladega to be branded the series’ “most competitive track”. However, where fans and media embrace the annual stops at Talladega, drivers, particularly those in contention, fear what the potential ‘Big One” can do to their title chances. Considering that the active drivers for Sunday have combined for DNF’s in 30% of their prior starts in the COT here, the apprehensiveness is understandable. If you recall the spring race at Talladega, twelve drivers ended the race with their status as “Accident”, and Brad Keselowski was declared the winner almost by default, as Carl Edwards’ car tumbled across the finish line on the frontstretch.
Denny Hamlin won last week at Martinsville, a genuine upset considering how heavily Jimmie Johnson was favored. Still, it was Johnson that was the ultimate beneficiary, as he was able to increase his lead over Mark Martin to 118 points. Neither of those drivers has been particularly strong at Talladega, with average finishes of 16.0 for Martin and 17.7 for Johnson. Martin has been particularly outspoken about his disdain for the track, ``There's always a big wreck here, and I just know I'm going to be in it,'' said Martin, ``I've wrecked here a lot, and it hurts really bad every time.''. He finished 43rd in the spring. Of the remaining drivers still in realistic contention for the 2009 title, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart are the only one’s who figure to have much confidence headed into Sunday’s race. Talladega threatens to upset the standings, and it might be the only chance for NASACR to see any drama injected into its Chase.
Tony Stewart is the defending champion of this race and has led the most Talladega laps in the COT, with 123. He has an average finish of 13.8 in 21 career starts here, second to only Kurt Busch (12.1) among active drivers. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (116) and Denny Hamlin (114) have also led 100+ laps. Jeff Gordon’s six career wins top the field, with Earnhardt, Jr.’s five running a close second. Gordon owns one of the other COT wins since ’07, along with Kyle Busch. Only three drivers have managed to score more than one Top 5 finish in the four previous COT races at Talladega, those being Ryan Newman, David Ragan, and Denny Hamlin and a couple of relatively unknown drivers, Casey Mears (10.8) and Dave Blaney (12.5) lead the average finish category since October ‘07.
The drivers who have struggled badly in the COT at Talladega are David Reutimann, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, and Martin Truex, all averaging worse than a 26.0 finish in their last four starts. Each of those guys has at least one DNF, with Truex having actually failed to finish ALL FOUR times!
With all this talk of past stats, keep in mind that in handicapping this race, the restrictor plates tend to take away any statistical advantage you might have at other tracks. Practice, happy hour, and qualifying speeds mean very little when compared to the ability to draft well and hence run in the lead pack. This not only leads to a better finish at the end, but also the hope of avoiding the wreck. There are several drivers who are well known for their ability to stay out front at plate tracks. Among the Chasers in that list, you’ll find Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch and even Juan Montoya of late in the theoretical upper half. Among the non-Chasers, Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and David Ragan are the guys to watch out for.
Oddsmakers have at least acknowledged the fact that virtually anyone can win this race, installing four different drivers, Tony Stewart (7-1), Jeff Gordon (15-2), Kyle Busch (8-1), and Juan Montoya (9-1) as favorites in single-digits. Jimmie Johnson at 10-1 would be considered an upset winner this week. Denny Hamlin, at 14-1, is one of the drivers worth backing, as is Clint Bowyer, at 20-1. In any case, though, it’s tough to make any specific recommendations for drivers to back in matchups or props since so much can happen on any given lap. In other words, bet at your own peril, but consider that Talladega is a good place to take an underdog. Also, don’t plan on projecting the results of your matchup wagers till the cars cross the line on lap 188.
The action this weekend starts up with qualifying at 12:10 PM ET on Saturday. Starting position at Talladega typically isn’t nearly as important as at other tracks as drivers can go from 5th to 30th and vice-versa within a single lap. Brad Keselowski started 9th here in spring and defending fall race champion Tony Stewart started 34th. The average starting spot of a Top 5 finisher here since ’07 is just 16.8, and the average Happy Hour rank is 28.1. The race is scheduled for Sunday at 1:19 PM ET on ABC. If you tune into any race the rest of the way, this should be it. Nothing beats the intensity of restrictor plate racing at Talladega, and ANYTHING can happen! As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to help you get prepared for all of the action…
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