Sunday night college football returns with this C-USA East Division encounter. Marshall (5-3, 5-2 ATS) is still the conversation for division crown and can’t afford any missteps.  With a win, they stay tied with East Carolina at 4-1, whom they lost to earlier in the season.

The Thundering Herd has been hovering around 95th in total offense most of the season and has to generate more points if they want to win the division. They will need to be more productive in the passing game, averaging just 183 yards per game against teams that have allowed 235 yards. Central Florida (4-3, 5-1 ATS) is allowing almost 65 completion percentage and 243 yards per game. Marshall is just 5-12 ATS as conference dogs.

Thank goodness for Central Florida defense, which is among the best in the C-USA. Teams average just 319 yards per game against them and they hold opponents to 2.7 yards per carry on the ground. Marshall’s offense is built around running back Darius Marshall (ironic last name) and if the Knights can stop him, the Herd’s offense suffers. Defensive end Albert McClellan and LB Mario Harvey are certainly capable of doing just that.

No fast starts for the Central Florida this season, having failed to lead at halftime in first six games, until facing a rotten Rice squad in 49-7 rout last week. In that contest UCF totaled 465 yards and they are 5-0 ATS in next outing after gaining 450 or more yards.

Sportsbook.com has Central Florida as seven-point favorite (up from opening 4.5) with total of 42.5. The Knights have won and covered four in a row over the Thundering Herd and are on 5-0 ATS run in this matchup. In the last six of the meetings between these teams, the UNDER is 4-2 and UCF is 10-0 UNDER in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.

This looks like a close low scoring game on ESPN at 8:15 Eastern, however five of the seven get-togethers have been decided by 14 or more points.

StatFox Power Line – Central Florida by 7
StatFox Out Play Factor – UCF covers