The Lone Star State hosts this weekend’s NASCAR events and with just three races remaining in the season, Jimmie Johnson is getting closer and closer to a fourth straight series title. His lead is currently 184-points over Mark Martin heading into the Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, and he needs to only finish 9th in each of the final three weeks to clinch. Well, his career average finish at Texas is 9.1, best on the circuit, so he is at least on target to meet his series clinching goal this week. However, surely Johnson has his sights set on Victory Lane, and he is a 13-4 favorite to win Sunday’s race. Here are the current Chase standings, heading into the weekend:
RANK, DRIVER, POINTS, BEHIND
1. Jimmie Johnson 6248 Leader
2. Mark Martin 6064 -184
3. Jeff Gordon 6056 -192
4. Juan Montoya 6009 -239
5. Tony Stewart 5969 -279
6. Kurt Busch 5936 -312
7. Greg Biffle 5908 -340
8. Ryan Newman 5846 -402
9. Kasey Kahne 5834 -414
10. Carl Edwards 5811 -437
11. Denny Hamlin 5800 -448
12. Brian Vickers 5692 -556
Ironically, Jimmie Johnson held a 183-point lead heading to Texas last season, so his dominance is nothing the series hasn’t seen before. That lead ballooned last weekend when he not only survived Talladega, but finished 6th, better than all other Chasers besides Kasey Kahne (2nd) and Greg Biffle (4th). Incidentally, Mark Martin was 28th, flipping his car on the front stretch of the final green flag lap, putting a perfect wrap on a much-maligned AMP Energy 500. Martin wasn’t the only driver taken on a wild ride last week though, as Ryan Newman endured one of the craziest flips I can remember in any recent race. When his car finally came to a stop, it was on its roof, and had to be turned over and cut apart for Newman to be able to exit. He, along with several other drivers were quite vocal about the dangers of Talladega racing afterward as well and he might not be in any mental condition to back this week on any matchup or prop wagers.
The Chase format continues to come under scrutinizing with the way Johnson has made a mockery of it. This stands to be the first time that a champion might not even have to get in the car in the season finale at Miami. Talk about a nightmare scenario for NASCAR. Still, even with the dominance at the top, there is still plenty left to decided between 2nd & 11th in the standings. Those spots are separated by 264 points. Where the drivers finish in the final standings means a lot to the season prize money they collect, so rest assured they will still be fighting for positions down the stretch. Furthermore, only the Top 10 drivers go to the season ending banquet in New York, an honor not lost upon the Chasers. The other main prize still on the line is the $1 million for finishing 13th, the first spot outside the Chase. Currently, that is being occupied by Kyle Busch, but he is just 57 points ahead of Matt Kenseth. Don’t forget about the 35th position in the standings either, as anyone who finishes in the Top 35 in the ’09 car owner points automatically qualifies for the ’10 season’s first five races. The #34 car of John Andretti currently holds the critical 35th spot, 135 points up on the #82 of Scott Speed.
Sunday’s Dickies 500 will be the second race of the season run at Texas Motor Speedway and the 4th in the COT. One particular driver has done exceedingly well in the last three starts here, that being Carl Edwards. In that span he has won twice, including this race a year ago, and has led 344 laps during that time. He finished 10th in the spring. Jeff Gordon won the April race, beating Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, and Tony Stewart. In fact, only Matt Kenseth (5th) and Jeff Burton (8th) cracked the Top 10 finishers as eventual non-Chasers. Biffle, Gordon, Johnson, and Edwards have made up eight of the 15 Top 5 finishers over the last two seasons, and no one else has more than one. Kenseth has led 123 laps, second to Edwards, and Gordon 120. In terms of career numbers, Kenseth is second to Johnson in average finish at 9.5, and has six Top 5’s and 497 laps led in 13 prior starts, best of any driver.Of the Chasers that have struggled at Texas, Kasey Kahne, Juan Montoya, and Kurt Busch all have average finishes of 22nd or worse in the COT and only Busch has led a lap.
Taking a look at the odds, Jimmie Johnson is the favorite at 13-4, but Jeff Gordon (6-1), Tony Stewart (8-1) and Mark Martin (9-1) are expected contenders. That list does not include any of the four drivers I would be giving consideration too as underdog winners. Carl Edwards is the obvious one, at 12-1, but Greg Biffle (16-1) and Juan Montoya (10-1) are running better, as is Kasey Kahne (25-1), who also happened to win the last 1-1/2 mile race at Atlanta. With the narrow backstretch and historical attrition of engines at Texas, it never makes sense to buy anything at less than 5-1. The fact that only two active drivers have won more than once here also shows that anything can happen. In fact, if there is any of the three remaining Chase races that will be won by anyone outside the Top 12, this would be it. In which case, Matt Kenseth (15-1), Kyle Busch (12-1), and even Joey Logano (40-1) seem most capable. Logano is a real interesting driver at this point, as he has improved rapidly over the course of his rookie year and has to be looking forward to February’s Daytona 500 already.
Speed is the name of the game at Texas, and it will be on full display Sunday at 3:31 PM ET on ABC. Qualifying is Friday afternoon at 4:40 PM ET. Starting position has proven important at Texas, with 10 of 17 prior winners starting the first five spots. However, Happy Hour speeds have been even more important with the last four drivers pacing final practice having finished 2nd, 1st, 1st, & 1st. Be sure to check NASCAR.com for the final practice speeds after noon ET on Saturday. The StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are below to help you prepare for all the high speed excitement…
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