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Earlier in the season, on two different occasions, I spent time researching and finding reasons, then imploring you to not give up betting on some of the NFL’s worst teams. Since that point, those clubs have managed to scratch out a few covers, but for the most part, it has been the best teams that have continued to roll. In fact, this season has seen an overabundance of success by favorites in both the college & pro ranks. It has gotten so bad that even the most dedicated systems handicappers have started to get squeamish, even myself. For that reason, I’ve decided to dedicate this week’s NFL feature piece to betting the good teams the rest of the way. I’ve taken the game logs from teams since 2000 that have met either of two criteria for being elite clubs after eight weeks of games, and have looked for different spots in which they have excelled or struggled the rest of the way. I will reveal those angles shortly. However, the basis for our criteria was that the team had to be 1) Undefeated or 2) Outscoring opponents by 10.0 PPG or more after Week 8. There have been 19 such clubs that have fit the bill over the last nine years. Here they are: Year, Team, W-L Record, Scoring Margin
2000 MINNESOTA, 7-0, +6.7 PPG
2001 ST LOUIS, 6-1, +13.1 PPG
2002 PHILADELPHIA, 5-2, +13.9 PPG
2002 TAMPA BAY, 6-2, +10 PPG
2003 INDIANAPOLIS, 6-1, +11.7 PPG
2003 KANSAS CITY, 8-0, +14.5 PPG
2003 ST LOUIS, 5-2, +10.6 PPG
2004 PHILADELPHIA, 7-0, +11.7 PPG
2005 INDIANAPOLIS, 7-0, +16 PPG
2005 NY GIANTS, 5-2, +10.3 PPG
2006 CHICAGO, 7-0, +21.7 PPG
2006 INDIANAPOLIS, 7-0, +7.4 PPG
2006 NEW ENGLAND, 6-1, +11.4 PPG
2006 SAN DIEGO, 5-2, +15.3 PPG
2007 INDIANAPOLIS, 7-0, +17.4 PPG
2007 NEW ENGLAND, 8-0, +25.5 PPG
2007 PITTSBURGH, 5-2, +13.3 PPG
2008 NY GIANTS, 6-1, +10.9 PPG
2008 TENNESSEE, 7-0, +13.3 PPG For 2009, after Week 8, there were four teams that fit the bill. If you count the number of records by year above, you’ll see that in no other season since 2000 has there been more than four, another sign that parity has flown out the window in the NFL. In any case, here are the four teams we will be generating trends about for the rest of the season. You may agree or disagree with their status, but they simply fit the preordained criteria. Fit these teams into the winning/losing angles below and hopefully watch your profits grow in Weeks 9 and beyond! 2009 “Elite” Teams, W-L Record, Scoring Margin
NEW ORLEANS, 6-0, +18.5 PPG
INDIANAPOLIS, 7-0, +15.1 PPG
NEW ENGLAND, 5-2, +14.3 PPG
PHILADELPHIA, 5-2, +10.0 PPG Now, let’s take a look at some of those angles you may want to employ in following or fading these teams the rest of the way. General Trends
Over the last nine seasons, our elite teams have combined to go 140-66 SU (68.0%) and 101-102-3 ATS (49.8%) in Week 9 and beyond. The average scores of these games have been 25.6-19.8, with these elite clubs being favored by 5.7 points per contest. In other words, oddsmakers have been quite sharp when it comes to evaluating these teams in late season games. However, since we are at about a 50/50 proposition to begin with, there is always room to improve by digging deeper. Home/Road & Line Range Scenarios
Our elite teams tend to be a more reliable bet at home, as on the road, their opponents seem to gear up for them. In Weeks 9 & beyond, the elite teams have combined to go 59-34 SU & 43-48-2 ATS (47.3%). At home, they’ve gone 81-32 SU & 58-54-1 ATS (51.8%). Here are some more specific trends dealing with home/road & line range scenarios: As road underdogs in Weeks 9 & beyond, our elite teams have combined to go 13-14 SU & 16-11 ATS (59.3%) since 2000.
As road favorites, our elite teams have gone 45-19 SU but just 26-36-2 ATS (41.9%) after the halfway point since ’00. As road chalk of 8-points or more, they’ve gone 5-10 ATS.
The “trap” line range for fading our elite teams as road favorites in last season games seems to be -8.5 to -9.5, as they are just 1-6 ATS in that range over the L9 seasons.
In Week 9 & beyond games as home underdogs, a rare scenario, our elite teams have gone 3-6 SU but 6-3 ATS. However, as you can see, in nine years, this scenario only presents itself once per season on average.
One of the more frequent opportunities is to back our elite teams at home in any game with a single-digit pointspread, favorite or underdog. In such contests, they have combined to go 51-25 SU & 45-30 ATS (60%) over the L9 years of second half games.
Stay away from these elite teams as double-digit home chalk, since they have combined to go just 13-24 ATS (35.1%) since 2000 in late season games.
Where the total is set by oddsmakers also serves as a potential indicator of these elite teams’ ability to beat the pointspread. Since ’00, in second half games where the total is at 44 or higher, they are just 46-60 ATS (43.4%), while in games with totals less than 40, they’ve gone 32-22-1 ATS (59.3%). In other words, if oddsmakers believe the opponent has a chance to score points, our elite teams have less chance of covering.Time Period Considerations
How deep we get into the season has a lot to do with the chances of our elite teams winning and covering as well. In fact, there have been four distinct breaks in the NFL schedule framework as to when to fade, follow, or tread lightly. In Weeks 9 & 10, our elite teams have combined to go 23-12 SU but just 16-18-1 ATS (47.1%).
In Weeks 11-14, our elite teams have excelled, 61-16 SU & 45-29-2 ATS (60.8%), explainable by the fact that most teams are out of their bye weeks by then and the “rest” playing field is leveled.
In Weeks 15-17, avoid betting the elite teams, as they’ve gone just 35-22 SU & 21-36 ATS (36.9%) since 2000. In many cases, these teams have clinched playoff positions and are resting starters. Often too, the pressure is mounting for key wins in these games, and oddsmakers will price these elite teams out of value.
In the playoffs, our elite clubs turn out to be a 50/50 proposition against the spread, 19-19 ATS.Line Moves
Bettors tend to have a relatively good feel for the elite teams, at least if judged by the way the lines have moved over the last nine years. In fact overall, by following the line movement in the games involving these elite clubs since then, you would have gone 85-75-2 ATS, for 53.1%. Broken down a little closer…When the line has shown a move towards our elite team, that team has gone 43-34 ATS for 55.8%. However, when that line move has been 2-points or greater, their record is only 3-8 ATS. Therefore, look for small & subtle movements in the line moves towards these elite teams. On line moves less than 2-points, their record is 40-26 ATS (60.6%). Conference/Divisional Matchups
There have been some significant trends that developed on the elite teams when matched in various divisional or conference scenarios: In Week 9 & beyond conference games since ’00, our elite teams have gone 51-43-1 ATS (54.3%).
In Weeks 11-14 over the L9 seasons, our elite teams have gone 19-11 ATS (63.3%) vs. conference foes, including 11-5 ATS (68.8%) at home.
In Week 9 & beyond non-conference games since ’00, our elite teams have gone 21-20 ATS (51.2%).
Divisional games have been where our elite teams have struggled in late season games, going 29-39 ATS (42.6%) since ’00, including 11-23 ATS (32.4%) on the road.
In divisional games of Week 15 & beyond, our elite teams have gone just 6-18 ATS (25.0%), including 1-10 ATS (9.1%) on the road.Scoring
The amount of points our elite teams score or allow in their games of Week 9 and later provide a clear indication of whether or not they will cover the pointspread: When allowing more than 21 points, our elite teams have gone 19-60 ATS (24.1%) since ‘00.
When allowing 14 points or less, the elite teams have gone 48-15 ATS (76.2%) over the L9 years.
When scoring 21 points or less, our elite teams have gone 14-63 ATS (18.2%) since ’00, and the UNDER is 67-12 (84.8%) in those games.
When scoring 29 points or more, the elite teams have gone 61-14 ATS (81.3%) over the L9 years, with the OVER going (86.5%).In essence, there is really only a 7-point window in both scoring and allowing points where these teams’ ATS fortunes aren’t predetermined. Use of a good simulator or mathematical scoring forecaster can help you find spots where these scoring trends can be put to use. Good luck the rest of the way in the NFL, particularly if you put today’s findings to use!
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