The 2009 Sprint Cup Championship will be decided on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway and at this point, the naming of the champion seems to be merely a formality. Jimmie Johnson has opened up a 108-point lead over Martin with just the Ford 400 remaining on the season schedule. Johnson can clinch his record-setting fourth consecutive championship by finishing 25th or better. Of course, in sports, anything can and has happened, so it would be premature to just hand the trophy over to him without at least running Sunday’s 267 laps around HMS. Oddsmakers don’t expect Johnson to coast in this race, as they’ve establish him & Martin as co-favorites, at 6-1 odds. Here are the complete Chase standings heading into the final race:
RANK, DRIVER, POINTS BEHIND
1. Jimmie Johnson, 6492 Leader
2. Mark Martin, 6384 -108
3. Jeff Gordon, 6323 -169
4. Kurt Busch, 6281 -211
5. Tony Stewart, 6207 -285
6. Juan Montoya, 6203 -289
7. Greg Biffle, 6171 -321
8. Denny Hamlin, 6140 -352
9. Ryan Newman, 6081 -411
10. Kasey Kahne, 6016 -476
11. Carl Edwards, 5972 -520
12. Brian Vickers, 5826 -666
In an ironic twist of fate, the 2009 Chase has done exactly the opposite of what it was designed to, that being increase the drama of the season’s final races. In fact, Jimmie Johnson’s current point lead of 108 would only be 13 right now over Tony Stewart had the old points system still been in place. If anything, the way Johnson has dominated the Chase proceedings in recent years, the argument should be in favor of ACTUALLY bringing back the old method. Think of the hype that would have been surrounding this race had Johnson and Stewart been going head-to-head for the title on Sunday. Instead, it figures to be 267 victory parade laps for the three-time defending series champ. Rest assured that Johnson will play it safe, and that no other driver wants to even get near his car and endanger the title chase. The only drama really left seems to be the race for 13th place, as Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth are separated by just 45 points in the battle for a $1 million bonus. The Top 12 have become separated so far that it would be unusual to see any movement in the final Chase positions following this race.
This is the season finale race so it will be your last chance to wager NASCAR till the Daytona festivities in February. In terms of handicapping this season finale, be sure to throw out any results at this track prior to 2003 since this facility underwent massive change prior to that year. Formerly a flat track, it is now a genuine super-speedway, similar to Lowe’s and Texas, so look for the results of races #5, and #8 of the Chase as a guideline. Incidentally, Jimmie Johnson won the race at Lowes, and Kurt Busch took home the checkered flag at Texas. However, if any drivers are to stand in the way of either of those two or Mark Martin in reaching victory lane this week, it would be Roush Racing drivers, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth, who have combined for wins in five of the last six Miami races.
Because the track is so different now than it was when it opened over a decade ago, I have only included the races run here on the new layout. There have been six of them. As far as the key stats are concerned, the laps led per race leaders are Carl Edwards (50.2), Matt Kenseth (47.8), and Greg Biffle (28.8). The average finish honors go to Carl Edwards (6,4), Kevin Harvick (7.7), and Jeff Gordon (8.2). In terms of Top 5 finishes, Gordon is the only guy to do so four times since ’03, while Edwards, Harvick, and Biffle have each done so three times. You’ll notice Jimmie Johnson & Mark Martin conspicuously absent from any of these leaderboards. That is because they have averaged just 12.7 & 14.6 finishes while leading just 26 laps in 11 combined starts. For Johnson, he has normally been on cruise control in this race, simply hoping to avoid trouble, just as he will be on Sunday. Keep that in mind if you are considering him in any wagers.
A few other drivers you might want to keep an eye on Sunday are Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, and Juan Montoya. Each of them has enjoyed a strong season, with surges at various points, and all would love to be headed to the offseason with a checkered flag under their belt. Of those you’ll want to avoid in the Ford 400 simply based upon past performance, Dale Earnhardt Jr. (27.0 avg. since ’03), Kyle Busch (29.5) and Brian Vickers (31.7) head the list. Between the three, there are a combined four DNF’s and zero Top 5 finishes.
Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin share 6-1 odds to win at Sportsbook.com. Johnson’s odds obviously aren’t reflective of his concentration on the bigger picture and needing to finish just 25th and he has virtually little or no betting value. In fact, the better options would figure to be Greg Biffle (8-1), or Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart at 10-1. )or Kenseth (10-1). Don’t dismiss Martin though, as he surely would love to win and lead the most laps, making Johnson at least work for the title. Matt Kenseth (12-1) is also intriguing in that he has fared well at Miami and would love to win the bookend races. If you recall, he reached Victory Lane in the first two events of 2009, some nine months ago.
Horsepower is big at Miami, and because of the progressive banking built into the track, there tends to be a lot of side by side racing. That has the propensity to eat up tires quickly. When combined with a newly paved surface in ‘05, the result has been a lot of blistered tires. In fact, in the six races since the overhaul, there have been 57 cautions, an average of just less than 10 per race. Prior to that, the four other races at HMS produced just 17 total. Keep in mind that a cut tire at a wrong time or place for Jimmie Johnson could end his title quest prematurely, opening the door to this week’s other favorite, Mark Martin.
This weekend’s racing also features the final events in the Busch and Truck series’. The Sprint Cup series action starts with qualifying, scheduled for 3:10 PM ET on Friday. Incidentally, the average starting spot of the winner here is a low 6.8 over the last six races, with Greg Biffle’s 22nd in ’06 throwing the number off a lot. The average Happy Hour rank of the winner is just 18.0 over the last four races, meaning it’s more important to be running up front as early and often as possible than to try and make up ground on longer runs. The green flag for the Ford 400 drops at 3:30 PM ET on Sunday. The 2009 season’s final NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are below to help you get ready for all the action. If you haven’t gotten in on the excitement of betting NASCAR yet, this is your final race to do so.
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