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In last week’s NBA feature article, I went through team-by-team and pulled out betting angles for each in back-to-back scenarios. Naturally, some teams were better than others on the back end, while some excelled on the front end. To others, the schedule made little difference in how they performed night-in and night-out. For this week, I’ll finish off the two-part NBA back-to-back series by looking at some league-wide systems. Some of the different scenarios I’ll be looking at will be line ranges, time of the year, division/non-conference games, and various home-road angles. Hopefully this will give you a blueprint to follow as you analyze the scheduling effect on handicapping nightly NBA games. Let’s first start out with some of the basic systems to determine if digging deeper in any particular one might provide us with a more definitive strategy going forward. These results cover games from the start of the 2006-07 season to mid-last week. Because of the generic nature of these angles examining large sample sizes, we are looking for subtle edges that will give us fundamentals to go on. Systems of 54% ATS would be considered strong here. Time of year
The following chart illustrates the records of NBA teams in each end of the back-to-back scenario by month. The obvious line of thinking here would be to expect performance levels to drop on back end games as the season gets deeper, simply due to increased fatigue. However, that is not the case. 
Day of the Week
Does the day of the week have any influence on team success in back-to-back situations in the NBA? Yes, as you can see from the chart below, teams playing on a front end on Sunday have been a sound wager, as have teams playing on the back end on Friday’s. Alternatively, those playing on the back end on Thursday’s have struggled. Why might this be? Perhaps it’s because the league’s best teams typically play on Sunday’s & Thursday’s on national TV. Think about the levels of the teams playing in these particular spots. 
Team Records
Does it matter if a team is a winning or losing team when it comes to back-to-back games? Take a look at these systems: Teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season are 286-287 ATS (49.9%) in the back end of back-to-back games. On the front end they are 308-258 ATS (54.4%), a relatively strong wager.
Teams winning between 40%-60% of their games on the season are 350-334 ATS (51.2%) in the back end of back-to-back games. On the front end, they are 322-340 ATS (48.6%).
The NBA’s better teams, or those with a winning percentage of 60% or greater, are 265-285 ATS (48.2%) since ’06 on the back end of back-to-back games, the lowest spread covering percentage of any grouping. It seems the elite clubs have the most trouble beating oddsmakers’ expectations in this spot. On the front end though, they have been reasonably successful at 283-275 ATS (50.7%).How about the record of the opponent, does it have influence?
Teams facing opponents winning 40% or less of their games on the season are 292-274 ATS (51.6%) in the back end of back-to-back games. On the front end they are 265-285 ATS (48.2%).
Teams going up against opponents winning between 40%-60% of their games on the season are 319-351 ATS (47.6%) in the back end of back-to-back games. On the front end, they are 354-294 ATS (54.6%), the best angle we’ve been able to come up with yet in this portion of the analysis.
When facing the NBA’s better teams, or those with a winning percentage of 60% or greater, teams are 281-276 ATS (50.4%) since ’06 on the back end of back-to-back games. On the front end, they have gone 294-294 ATS (50.0%).The first thought is to combine our best two angles from above and that yields the following: Since 2006, teams winning 40% or less or less of their games are 105-83 ATS (55.6%) vs. teams winning between 40%-60% of their games on the front end of a back-to-back. In essence, these bad teams fare well when rested against teams that are not in their same status or in the elite group. Line Range Analysis
Here are some trends regarding line placement and team success in back-to-back spots. Double-digit home favorites are 32-36 ATS (47.1%) in the back end of a back-to-back scenario since ’06. Similarly, they are 34-38 ATS (47.2%) on the front end.
Home favorites of -6.5 to -9.5 points are 60-64 ATS (48.4%) in the back end of the back-to-back scenario since ’06. On the front end, slightly better at 63-64 ATS (49.6%).
Mid-range home favorites in the -3.5 to -6.5 spread are 58-53 ATS (52.2%) over the L3+ season in the back end of back-to-back games. They are 14 games in the loss column worse on the front end, 58-67 ATS (46.4%).
How about the small home favorite, or those -3 or less? They are 36-40 ATS (47.4%) on the back end but an impressive 43-29 ATS (59.7%) on the front end of back-to-back games since ’06.
Home underdogs are 87-97 ATS (47.3%) in the back end of back-to-back games over the L3+ seasons, but 106-84 ATS (55.8%) on the front side.
Heavy road favorites, or those laying 7-points or more, are 34-35 ATS (49.3%) on the back end and 34-40 ATS (45.9%) on the front end of back-to-back games since ’06.
Road favorites of 6.5-points or less own a record of 123-116 ATS (51.5%) in back end games, and 155-151 ATS (50.7%) in front end games since ’06.
Small road underdogs, or those of 3-points or less, are 81-69 ATS (54.0%) in the back end of a back-to-back scenario since ’06. They are nearly exactly opposite, 68-82 ATS (45.3%), on the front end.
Mid-range road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6.5 spread are 106-124 ATS (46.1%) over the L3+ season in the back end of back-to-back games. They are far more effective on the front end, 138-119 ATS (53.7%).
Road underdogs of +6.5 to +9.5 points are 154-151 ATS (50.5%) in the back end of the back-to-back scenario since ’06. On the front end, even more effective at 128-110 ATS (53.8%).
How about the double-digit road dog? They are actually 114-109 ATS (51.1%) on the back end but only 83-88 ATS (48.5%) on the front end of back-to-back games since ’06.Division/Conference/Non-Conference Games
Is there any advantage or disadvantage to playing in a back-to-back spot against a divisional rival? A conference or non-conference foe? Let’s see. Teams playing against non-divisional conference foes on the back end of a back-to-back scenario are 386-414 ATS (48.3%) since ’06. On the front end, they are better, 416-400 ATS (51.0%).
Teams playing against an opposite conference opponent in the back end of a back-to-back scenario are 326-303 ATS (51.8%) over the L3+ seasons. On the front end, they are 336-298 ATS (53.0%). In both spots, the unfamiliarity proves to be an edge.
Teams playing division rivals have had trouble beating pointspreads in back-to-back spots, as they are 189-189 ATS (50%) on the back end and 173-187 ATS (48.1%) on the front end since the start of the ’06-07 season.Specific Back-to-back Situations
There are several different scheduling scenarios a team can face in back-to-back games. On the back end, they can be at home after a home game the night before, or be at home after a road contest. They can also be playing on the road after being at home the prior night, or finally, playing in consecutive road tilts. The scenarios are just the opposite for the front end. Here is a look at home teams in those specific spots perform against the spread. Teams playing their second consecutive night at home are 15-21 ATS (41.7%) since ’06. This is a rare situation that only comes up a dozen times per season.
Teams playing a home game after being on the road the night prior are 266-275 ATS (49.2%) over the L3+ seasons.
Road teams that played at home the previous night have gone 267-288 (48.1%) on this back end of the back-to-back scenario since ’06.
Teams faced with playing a second consecutive night on the road have proven to be a fairly sound bet, going 353-322 ATS (52.3%) since the start of the ’06-07 season.
Teams playing in the first of back-to-back games at home are 22-11 ATS (66.7%) since ’06. This is a rare situation but the most promising angle that’s been uncovered yet.
Teams playing at home the night before having to go on the road are 283-277 ATS (50.5%) over the L3+ seasons.
Road teams that play at home the next night have gone just 260-281 (48.1%) on this front end of the back-to-back scenario since ’06.
Teams faced with playing back-to-back nights on the road have proven to be a fairly sound bet in the opening game, going 360-316 ATS (53.3%) since the start of the ’06-07 season.Summary/Combinations
So far we know these fundamental facts about back-to-back scenarios in the NBA:
1. Teams on the front end of back-to-back games win 46.1% of their games. Teams on the back end win 44.3% of their games. With the natural win-loss percentage being 50%, teams in stand alone scheduling spots hold a significant edge over those in either end of the back-to-back.
2. Fatigue tends to set in most in February, around the all-star break, as that month shows the biggest separation in ATS success from being a rested team (front end) to a tired team (back end), 53.9% to 47.5%.
3. The Thursday TNT doubleheader games can be distinct indicators for team performance on back-to-back days. Since the league’s best teams are usually playing in these spots, it should come as no surprise that they fare well the following day (Friday) on the back-to-back, likely most often against a lesser team than the prior night. In that same breath, these good teams typically struggle in the Thursday game when they played the night before. That prior night’s game was also probably against a lesser opponent.
4. The most successful spread covering teams in the back-to-back are those that win 40% or less of their games on the season, as they 54.4% on the front end. The best spot to go against a particular level team is when one is squaring off in a front end game versus a team with a mid-level won-lost mark (40%-60%).
5. Home teams are a solid wager on the front end of a back-to-back scenario when laying 3-points or less, or when playing as the underdog. Combined, these groups are 149-113 ATS (56.9%) over the L3+ seasons. Alternatively, small road dogs of 3-points or less are the favorable play in back end games, 54% ATS.
6. Teams on either end of the back-to-back going up against non-conference opponents have had an edge, going 662-601 ATS (52.4%).
7. In terms of where a team plays in the back-to-back scenario, the most sound betting strategies arise either when a team plays consecutive nights at home, or consecutive nights on the road. In the home-to-home scenario, the team is a great bet in the first game (66.7% ATS) and a great FADE in the second (41.7% ATS). In the road-to-road setup, the team proves to be a sound bet on both sides, 53.3% ATS on the front, 52.3% ATS on the back. With all that in mind, is there one “ultimate 60% system” we can develop using our most successful angles combined? I tried going through several scenarios, and here is the best I came up with: * Play on any team in the front end of a back-to-back consecutive road game scenario when matched up against an opposite conference opponent with a pointspread in the +6 to -6 range. The record of this system is just 23-13 SU & 24-11 ATS ATS (68.6%) since the start of the 2006-07 season. This system does particularly well in the early season, with a combined mark of 18-5 ATS (78.3%) in November & December in that span. You should be able to spot about five or six plays that will fit this particular system in the next month and a half according to averages. Find them, play them, and reap the rewards. In any case, be sure to follow the more successful fundamentals we’ve learned about the back-to-back scenario in the NBA when it comes to weighing in the schedule portion of the handicapping process. Good luck!
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