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When the Bills fired head coach Dick Jauron last week, to most fans, it was just passing news, the first such move in what figures to be an end-of-season parade out of coaches. For handicappers though, it was more than that, another obstacle placed in the way of football betting profits. Teams generate certain tendencies and characteristics under their coaches and when a change is made, a new wrinkle is thrown into the routine. One of the types of trends that StatFox tracks on its FoxSheets are the COACHING TRENDS, and I’m here to reveal an angle from each game on the Week 12 NFL board specific to one of the head coaches. I know of some successful bettors who insist that Coaching Trends are the only trends that should be followed when handicapping the games. They believe that the coach dictates the entire pace, strategy, and motivational impact in any game. To them, the head coaches are both more important, and more predictable than even the quarterbacks. They would argue that teams only play certain ways because the coaching staff has prepared them as such. While I don’t pretend to go as far as believing the head coaches have more impact on the game than the strong-armed men under center, I do believe that there are certain coaches who know how to prepare their teams for certain situations better than others. For instance, Andy Reid’s teams always play well coming out of bye weeks, or against conference opponents. Tom Coughlin’s Giants’ teams have played their best football on the road. Bill Belichick, well, at least where trends are concerned, has his team prepared well for almost every matchup or situation. In any case, Coaching Trends can be a valuable addition to your handicapping arsenal. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the angles in play for this weekend’s games. For the rest of the Coaching Trends list for ALL of the games, as well as those for this weekend’s basketball & college football action, visit us at StatFox.com and then click on the Orange FoxSheets button. I’ve detailed a few that I personally believe could have a big impact on this week’s games. Just look for the EXPLANATION below each trend. Thursday, 11/26/2009
(103) GREEN BAY at (104) DETROIT 12:30 PM
Mike McCarthy is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) on the road & 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in dome games as coach of the Packers. The average score of the dome games was GREEN BAY 31.0, OPPONENTS 24.8 - (Rating = 2*)Explanation: Remember the days of the 90’s when Brett Favre and the Packers would frequently stumble on the road, and more specifically, in domes? Well, those days have past, and Green Bay has actually played its best football in those scenarios. Including a 37-26 win on Thanksgiving in Detroit in 2007, Mike McCarthy’s team has generated big profits in road games. (105) OAKLAND at (106) DALLAS 4:15 PM
Wade Phillips is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached. The average score was PHILLIPS 30.7, OPPONENT 14.0 - (Rating = 1*)Explanation: This trend is quite simple, particularly where the Cowboys are concerned. When Wade Phillips’ teams are able to establish their running game, they are nearly unbeatable, scoring 30.7 PPG while winning by over 16 PPG. Dallas should be able to generate a nice balanced attack against Oakland and come up with a big Turkey Day win.
(107) NY GIANTS at (108) DENVER 8:20 PM
Tom Coughlin is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus good teams (winning percentage 60% to 75%) as coach of the NY GIANTS. The average score was NY GIANTS 22.5, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 1*)Sunday, 11/29/2009
(205) INDIANAPOLIS at (206) HOUSTON 1:00 PM
Gary Kubiak is 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in his last eight games as a home underdog as coach of HOUSTON. The average score was HOUSTON 24.3, OPPONENT 18.3. - (Rating = 2*)Explanation: The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as home underdogs. Ironically, the two games in which they have covered but NOT won outright were against Indianapolis, 30-24 in 2007 (+6.5), and 31-27 in 2008 (+4.5). As you can see, each was a half point ATS win. In 2006, Houston upset Indy, 27-24 as a 9-point dog. This week’s line will be much lower, meaning Houston will likely need an outright win to cover. (207) CLEVELAND at (208) CINCINNATI 1:00 PM
Marvin Lewis is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in the second half of the season as the coach of CINCINNATI. The average score was CINCINNATI 24.9, OPPONENT 16.0 - (Rating = 1*)(209) CHICAGO at (210) MINNESOTA 1:00 PM
Lovie Smith is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt as the coach of CHICAGO. The average score was CHICAGO 15.4, OPPONENT 25.7 - (Rating = 2*)Explanation: The Bears haven’t had the offensive potency to keep up with explosive opposing units on the road under Lovie Smith, his teams scoring just 15.4 PPG in this trend. Even the addition of Jay Cutler hasn’t swung the pendulum yet. (211) WASHINGTON at (212) PHILADELPHIA 1:00 PM
Andy Reid is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 25.9, OPPONENT 12.0 - (Rating = 1*)(213) MIAMI at (214) BUFFALO 1:00 PM
Tony Sparano is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents as the coach of MIAMI. The average score was MIAMI 25.6, OPPONENT 20.6 - (Rating = 1*)(215) ARIZONA at (216) TENNESSEE 1:00 PM
Jeff Fisher is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of TENNESSEE. The average score was TENNESSEE 18.1, OPPONENT 28.6 - (Rating = 1*)Explanation: Jeff Fisher’s Tennessee teams have never been built to compete in high scoring shootouts. Though they have boasted good quarterbacks, they’ve always been a grind it out, run-first team. In matchups versus prolific passing teams, that style has hindered success. (217) SEATTLE at (218) ST LOUIS 1:00 PM
Both coaches are new with their teams in 2009, but interestingly, Jim Mora’s Seahawks have been dreadful on the road thus far and will be playing their final game of a 3-game road swing here, while the Rams have been as bad as ever at home under Steve Spagnuolo and are wrapping up a 3-game homestand in this contest.(219) TAMPA BAY at (220) ATLANTA 1:00 PM
Mike Smith is 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS (+5.7 Units) at home in his season and a half coaching ATLANTA. The average score was ATLANTA 28.0, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 1*)(221) CAROLINA at (222) NY JETS 1:00 PM
John Fox is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of CAROLINA. The average score was CAROLINA 19.8, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 2*)(223) JACKSONVILLE at (224) SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 PM
Jack Del Rio is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of JACKSONVILLE. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 21.3, OPPONENT 17.9 - (Rating = 1*)(225) KANSAS CITY at (226) SAN DIEGO 4:05 PM
Norv Turner is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 27.6, OPPONENT 18.1 - (Rating = 3*)(227) PITTSBURGH at (228) BALTIMORE 8:20 PM
John Harbaugh is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games as the coach of BALTIMORE. The average score was BALTIMORE 23.3, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 2*)Monday, 11/30/2009
(229) NEW ENGLAND at (230) NEW ORLEANS 8:35 PM
Bill Belichick is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 29.1, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 4*)Explanation: If you take any one of these trends for its worth, this would be it. Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes have been able to limit even the most explosive of opposing offenses to just 20.5 PPG. With Tom Brady executing his own offensive attack, his teams have had little trouble scoring (29.1 PPG) or beating the pointspread (18-4 ATS).
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