It hasn’t happened often, nonetheless, very little controversy about this year’s BCS championship game matchup. Certain precincts around the country have chimed in that maybe they deserved a shot at acquiring the hardware (that would Cincinnati, TCU and Boise State), however almost no argument these are the best two teams by all appearances, coming from power conferences.  

Only one of the last five BCS Championship games has been decided by single digits. That game was also the last time the title contest was held in Pasadena. Texas is hoping for an encore performance of that magical night, a 41-38 upset of USC behind quarterback Vince Young.

It’s Colt McCoy’s turn now, as he plays his final game for the Longhorns. He is undefeated in bowl games, part of a five-game bowl winning streak for head coach Mack Brown’s club. Alabama hopes to make the SEC proud by giving the league its sixth title game SU and ATS victory versus no defeats. The Crimson Tide is just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl games, though. They opened as 5.5-point favorites and have since been bet down to four; nevertheless the chalk has won two straight title games, snapping a stretch of five straight upsets.

For these two storied programs, here are points to consider in determining the outright and spread winner.

No question Alabama is the deserving favorite, playing in the tougher conference and having better players at more positions among the 22 starters. The Crimson Tide has the ability to play the power or speed game, whatever is necessary. Bama averages 5.1 yards per carry against teams that allowed 4.3. Because coach Nick Saban really loves the running game, he uses the passing game to create balance and isn’t beyond shutting it down if his quarterback has issues with accuracy. Quarterback Greg McElroy came back from midseason slump and was outstanding against Florida and clutch in come from behind win over Auburn.

However, he’s not Colt McCoy, who is a more talented and a proven clutch performer. The one lasting image in people’s minds is McCoy being thrown about like rag doll by Ndamukong Suh and the rest of the Nebraska defense. Don’t expect a similar performance from Texas this time around, especially in the role of underdog.

While Alabama deserves every accolade showered on them, Texas was No.1 in run defense in the country at 61 yards per game allowed, which as stated is the Tide’s preferred method of moving the ball, setting up hellacious conflict.

For those that believe in the mystical power of numbers, the Crimson Tide will feature their Heisman Trophy running back Mark Ingram, which leads immediately to the curse of playing the on the country’s most decorated player. Since Archie Griffin won the trophy in back to back years in the mid-70’s, playing against winner of the award in a bowl game yields a 25-8-1 ATS record, 75.7 percent.

A common theme has emerged in the BCS Championship game and it absolutely cannot be ignored. Whether it is politics or troubled youths living in urban areas across the country, today’s society has people making a choice. There is no room for fence-sitters; you either are with one group or against, period. Mack Brown’s team is the underdog and they will have the benefit of listening to how good Alabama is and letting that stew for a long time.

As coach Saban stated the night the matchup became official on Dec. 5, “Why does this game have to be about an underdog and favorite, why can’t it be a matchup of two really good teams and let the best one win?”

While coach Saban is absolutely correct, it’s become un-American to think that way. In the last seven encounters of No. 1 vs. No. 2 for the BCS crown, the lower seed is 6-1 SU and ATS, with the lone exception being junior Matt Leinart and the 2004 USC team breaking the string.

Bookmaker.com has Alabama favored by four-points with total of 46 and money line of -175. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers over the last two seasons and have not committed a turnover themselves in four games, are they due for a couple? Alabama is 11-3 UNDER after five or more consecutive straight up wins since last year.

Texas is in the rare position of being underdog and they have a long history of success at 27-13 ATS when placed in that position. The Longhorns are just the opposite of Bama on a hot streak and are 21-6 OVER after six or more consecutive straight up wins.

The oddsmakers are telling us Alabama wins 25-21, by the side and total numbers and that would be correct if McElroy can surpass the 230 yard passing barrier. Why that number, Texas figures to limit the Alabama rush game to an extent and the Tide is 5-1 ATS this season when they’ve thrown for 230 or more yards. Of the four closest games Texas played, in three of those games they conceded over 300 yards passing and was 0-2-1 ATS.

The key for Texas to win is the defense has to stop the run and get off the field. Here the magic number is 38 or less. Saban’s team is 1-3 ATS this season when they produced 38 rush attempts or less and 7-1 ATS when they reached 40 or more. Don’t let Bama hog the ball and Longhorns could win second BCS title in five years.

StatFox Power Line – Texas by 3
SF Forecaster – Texas covers