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NBA Top Weekend Power Trends 3/19-3/21
By: Steve Makinen - StatFox
Published: 3/18/2010  at  8:29:00 PM
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It’s common knowledge that the NBA takes a back seat to the college guys in the public eye at this time of year, but rest assured the bookmakers don’t forget about it, and for this weekend, 25 bet-able games are on tap. The NBA’s version of “March madness” is the push for the playoffs, and despite the fact that the Top 8 teams in each conference have started to separate from the rest, there is still plenty to be decided over the last four weeks of the season, namely, who will match up with who in the first round of the postseason. That picture will continue to be sorted out, starting with the games over the next few days. Let’s take a look at the key action and reveal this weekend’s list of Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider as you build your wagering lineup.

The Friday board features 11 games, including four in which would-be Western Conference playoff teams are playing at home. Phoenix will be hosting Utah, Portland will be at home versus Washington, the Lakers will welcome Minnesota to town, and San Antonio will play host to Golden State. The Lakers-Timberwolves game matches one of the league’s best home teams against one that has been horrible on the road and has lost its last 11 games as well as 17 of its last 18. However, the pointspread could be the great equalizer, since L.A. is just 15-19 ATS at home this season. The Spurs could have their hands full with the Warriors, since the latter have won 12 of their L17 games against the number, including their L5. Overall, Golden State is 12-games over .500 ATS on the season. San Antonio has gotten hot itself though, 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in its L10. The biggest game in the East has Cleveland visiting Chicago, with the Bulls trying to snap a 9-game losing skid.

On Saturday, seven games are on the board, two of which match intra-conference foes with the playoffs in their futures. In one, Boston will visit Dallas. The Mavericks are a well-publicized 14-1 in their last 15 games. However, bettors haven’t been nearly as pleased with their recent performance of 8-7 ATS in that span. In fact, the Mavericks remain an awful 8-26 ATS on the home court. Boston has played much better at times this season than it is now, and has just a 6-15 ATS mark vs. the West in ’09-10. The Bucks will also be in action, facing a back-to-back after having visited Sacramento on Friday night. That means Milwaukee will be putting its 11-6 SU & 13-3-1 ATS mark on the line when playing on zero days rest. The Nuggets will be off their Thursday night TNT game vs. New Orleans. Elsewhere on Saturday, the current #6 through #9 seeds in the East will all be in action, with Charlotte visiting Miami in the key game, Toronto traveling to New Jersey, and Philadelphia hosting Chicago.

On Sunday, there are also seven games, starting in the afternoon at 1:00 PM ET, with Houston making its only season stop in New York. The big games though are at night in a doubleheader on ESPN. In the first one, San Antonio visits Atlanta. The Hawks may be hitting a wall of late, having gone just 6-9 ATS in their L15 games after going 33-19 ATS prior. They boast a 19-9 SU & 15-13 ATS record vs. the West still. In the last ESPN game, Portland visits Phoenix. Heading into the weekend, the teams were separated by just 1-1/2 games in the standings, with the Suns tied for the 5th spot, and Portland occupying the #8 seed. That just shows how close it is right now in the West. Note that the Blazers have won four straight games in the series, both SU & ATS.

Now, here’s a look at some of this weekend’s Top StatFox Power Trends:

Friday, 03/19/2010
(801) DETROIT vs. (802) INDIANA

  • DETROIT is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 91.5, OPPONENT 97.3 -  (Rating = 2*)
     
    (809) CLEVELAND vs. (810) CHICAGO
  • CHICAGO is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) vs good 3PT shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The average score was CHICAGO 93.1, OPPONENT 99.7 -  (Rating = 3*)
     
    (811) BOSTON vs. (812) HOUSTON
  • BOSTON is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 97.1, OPPONENT 96.9 -  (Rating = 2*)
     
    (815) UTAH vs. (816) PHOENIX
  • UTAH is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season. The average score was UTAH 107.2, OPPONENT 98.2 -  (Rating = 3*)
     
    (819) MILWAUKEE vs. (820) SACRAMENTO
  • MILWAUKEE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ PPG in 2nd half of this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 103.2, OPPONENT 93.5 -  (Rating = 3*)
     
    Saturday, 03/20/2010
    (503) TORONTO vs. (504) NEW JERSEY
  • NEW JERSEY is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) vs explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ PPG this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 92.6, OPPONENT 111 -  (Rating = 3*)
     
    (511) MILWAUKEE vs. (512) DENVER
  • MILWAUKEE is 23-6 ATS (+16.4 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams making >=76% of their attempts this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 100.9, OPPONENT 95.9 -  (Rating = 4*)
     
    (511) MILWAUKEE vs. (512) DENVER
  • MILWAUKEE is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in non-conference games this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 103, OPPONENT 104 -  (Rating = 2*)
     
    (513) BOSTON vs. (514) DALLAS
  • BOSTON is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 95.4, OPPONENT 94.4 -  (Rating = 2*)
     
    Sunday, 03/21/2010
    (705) SACRAMENTO vs. (706) LA CLIPPERS
  • LA CLIPPERS are 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 94.3, OPPONENT 105.3 -  (Rating = 2*)
     
    (709) DETROIT vs. (710) CLEVELAND
  • CLEVELAND is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 97.3, OPPONENT 87.6 -  (Rating = 3*)
     
    (713) PORTLAND vs. (714) PHOENIX
  • PHOENIX is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) vs poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% in 2nd half of this season. The average score was PHOENIX 109, OPPONENT 97.9 -  (Rating = 2*)

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