As we head into another busy weekend just past the midway point of the NBA season, we decided to examine momentum. With 20 of the 30 NBA teams in action Friday (Jan. 21), hopefully this will help you to win bets on Saturday and Sunday and for the remainder of the season. We wanted to find out which teams consistently build upon a straight-up win and which teams have a greater habit of posting consecutive defeats. We also compiled the Over/Under numbers to determine the teams that put in the most consistent offensive and defensive performances from night to night. This study only refers to After STRAIGHT UP Wins and Losses. We will delve into After ATS Wins and Losses at a later date. All of the numbers here are through Thursday, Jan. 20. SU After SU Wins/LossesIn this section we are focusing simply on STRAIGHT UP records. These do not incorporate spreads in any way. So far this season, NBA teams are 349-263 (57%) After SU Wins. The teams with the best records also have the best After SU Wins records (San Antonio 30-5, Boston 25-6, Miami 24-6, L.A. Lakers 24-7). And the five worst records in the NBA have five of the six worst After SU Wins records (Washington 1-11, Sacramento 1-8, Minnesota 2-8, New Jersey 2-8, Cleveland 2-6). But the numbers are much different for teams recovering the quickest after SU losses. Although the Spurs and Celtics remain two of the five best teams in this category, the Heat and Lakers are only 6-6 in this scenario. San Antonio has won these games by a 7.3 PPG margin, which is second to Boston’s 8.1 PPG margin following an SU defeat.
Best SU Records After SU LOSSES
San Antonio 83% (5-1)
Chicago 79% (11-3)
Oklahoma City 79% (11-3)
Utah 79% (11-3)
Boston 67% (6-3)These teams are so bad, that they have been losing several games in a row. The usual suspects are on this list (albeit with slightly higher success rates than after a win) with Washington being the surprising absence with an 11-16 (41%) record after an SU loss. Minnesota’s 8-24 mark can be attributed to its lack of defense, as the Timberwolves are allowing 107.9 PPG after an SU defeat.
Worst SU Records After SU LOSSES
Cleveland 16% (5-27)
Sacramento 23% (7-23)
Minnesota 25% (8-24)
New Jersey 26% (8-23) Since most of the good teams were good in both categories and the bad teams were bad in both categories, we took the difference of Records After Wins minus Records After Losses and found seven teams that carry a difference of at least 25% in these two categories. Houston (0%), Toronto (-1%) and San Antonio (2%) are the three teams with virtually identical records after wins as after losses.
Greatest Differential: After SU Wins minus After SU Losses
New York 35% (68% after win, 33% after loss)
Dallas 31% (74% after win, 43% after loss)
Miami 30% (80% after win, 50% after loss)
L.A. Lakers 27% (77% after win, 50% after loss)
Orlando 26% (73% after win, 47% after loss)
Indiana -30% (25% after win, 55% after loss)
Washington -32% (8% after win, 41% after loss) ATS After SU Wins/LossesIn this section we are referring to AGAINST THE SPREAD records following Straight Up wins and losses. So far this season, NBA teams are 304-289 (51%) ATS After SU Wins, which shows that teams are rarely compiling long ATS win streaks or losing skids. However there are five teams winning over 60% ATS after an SU win, and these are certainly not the NBA elite, as three of these teams have a losing SU record and the Knicks are just barely over .500 at 22-19 SU. Speaking of New York, its record is so gaudy here due to 110.3 PPG after an SU win which is 1.7 PPG greater than any other NBA team in this scenario.
Best ATS Records After SU WINS
New York 82% (18-4 ATS)
L.A. Clippers 73% (11-4 ATS)
Philadelphia 65% (11-6 ATS)
Dallas 64% (16-9 ATS)
Toronto 64% (7-4 ATS)The Wizards rear their ugly heads again on this list, with an identical 1-11 mark both SU and ATS following a (rare) SU win. Washington has been outscored by 12.6 PPG (105.9 to 93.3) following a victory. Actually all of these teams below 40% ATS are among the NBA’s worst, which shows that when a bad team wins SU, it likely won’t win two in a row SU or ATS.
Worst ATS Records After SU WINS
Washington 8% (1-11 ATS)
Sacramento 33% (3-6 ATS)
Milwaukee 36% (5-9 ATS)
Cleveland 38% (3-5 ATS) But which teams are the best at putting a loss behind them and bouncing back with an ATS win? Of the “best ATS records after SU wins” group, only Philadelphia carries a similar stellar mark after SU losses. The other four teams in this aforementioned group are all below 50% ATS following SU losses.
Best ATS Records After SU LOSSES
Memphis 67% (14-7 ATS)
San Antonio 67% (4-2 ATS)
Philadelphia 65% (15-8 ATS)
Chicago 64% (9-5 ATS)
Oklahoma City 64% (9-5 ATS) This category is certainly telling as bettors have raised the lines expecting good teams to recover from SU losses. But judging by the great teams on this list of ATS futility, it is not the proper mentality to think that a great team will automatically bounce back from a defeat.
Worst ATS Records After SU LOSSES
Miami 18% (2-9 ATS)
Dallas 29% (4-10 ATS)
Cleveland 29% (9-22 ATS)
Orlando 33% (5-10 ATS)
New York 35% (6-11 ATS) Again, we took the difference of Records After Wins minus Records After Losses and found five teams that carry a difference of at least 25% in these two categories. And again we find that the Knicks, Heat, Mavericks and Wizards are the streakiest teams in the league both SU and ATS. Philadelphia (-1%), Denver (2%) and Atlanta (-2%) are the three teams with virtually identical ATS records after wins as after losses. Greatest Differential: ATS After SU Wins minus After SU Losses
New York 47% (82% after win, 35% after loss)
Miami 41% (59% after win, 18% after loss)
Dallas 35% (64% after win, 29% after loss)
L.A. Clippers 29% (73% after win, 44% after loss)
Washington -44% (8% after win, 52% after loss) Over/Under After SU Wins/LossesAnd to conclude this column, we give you the best Over and Under percentages after SU wins and losses. For the best Over bets, the results are a little surprising. The Clippers and Suns rank 2nd and 6th respectively in PPG after SU wins, but the Kings and 76ers have only put up 96.8 PPG and 98.4 PPG, respectively in this category. Sacramento makes this list because of surrendering a hefty 105.0 PPG after a win, which is much higher than its 101.4 PPG allowed after a loss.
Best OVER percentage after SU WIN
L.A. Clippers 67% (10 over, 5 under)
Phoenix 67% (12-6)
Sacramento 67% (6-3)
Philadelphia 65% (11-6)Denver is a shocker here with the third-most points (106.7 PPG) in the NBA following an SU win. Chicago’s inclusion here is much less surprising considering its league-best 91.7 PPG allowed after an SU win.
Best UNDER percentage after SU WIN
Indiana 81% (13 under, 3 over)
Chicago 68% (19-9)
Detroit 67% (10-5)
Denver 65% (13-7) The Nuggets make more sense on this list, with their NBA-leading 108.1 PPG after an SU loss. They have also given up 106.6 PPG in this scenario, which is the third-highest number in the league. Oklahoma City is second in scoring in this scenario at 106.5 PPG, but Detroit (96.6 PPG) is a bit of a surprise.
Best OVER percentage after SU LOSS
Oklahoma City 71% (10 over, 4 under)
Denver 63% (10-6)
Detroit 62% (16-10) The Hornets are at the top of this list because they have the fewest points scored (90.5 PPG) and allowed (91.4 PPG) when following an SU loss.
Best UNDER percentage after SU LOSS
New Orleans 75% (12 under, 4 over)
Charlotte 71% (17-7)
L.A. Lakers 67% (8-4)
San Antonio 67% (4-2)
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