The Southeastern Conference basketball fortunes and perceptions are deeply tied into one team, Kentucky. When the Wildcats are not among the elite, the entire league suffers from the perspective of something is wrong with the SEC. When Kentucky is playing at their typical high level and all the other teams are chasing, the image of the league improves. This SEC Tournament should be one of the most volatile of all, with six different teams having a legitimate chance to win in Nashville.

Opening Round
 
Auburn was playing a better brand of basketball; with a close lose to West Division winner LSU and back-to-back wins over Mississippi and Miss. State. The Tigers could not keep the momentum going losing to hated rival Alabama for a second time. Vanderbilt had a very unusual season. The Commodores upset Kentucky twice and little else. In fact, Vandy had a big lead with in-state rival Tennessee and crumbled in the last few minutes to lose my nine points. Auburn is a 9-point underdog in what essentially is a home game for Vandy. The Tigers are 3-4 ATS when getting 9 or more points. The ‘Dores win the game and should cover, with winning the SEC Tournament the only way to the field of 65 for Vandy.
Advantage-Vanderbilt

Dennis Felton continues to work to bring Georgia basketball back to respectability. At the beginning of February the Bulldogs were showing signs of making a turnaround, however six losses in last seven games took care of that. The last loss is against first round opponent Arkansas. The Razorbacks might be playing the best basketball of any team in the SEC. Winners of five in a row and 9 of 12, Arkansas only defeats in this late season run have come on the road by a total of six points. The Razorbacks are 1-3 ATS in neutral site games with a 10-5 ATS record with 3 or more days rest. Arkansas shows interest late and covers the 9-point spread.
Advantage – Arkansas

It is nearly unthinkable to even contemplate the idea, but this year’s Kentucky team is better off leaving Lexington. Wildcats backers were drenched in losing tickets with KY 2-10 ATS at Rupp Arena. Away from home Big Blue was 8-6 and 10-4 ATS. This Tubby Smith team is wholly dependent on guard play, since they receive virtually nothing from the front court players. Mississippi does nothing particularly well, finishing 10th in both field goal percentage offensively and defensively. The Rebels are last in scoring margin in the SEC at -2.3 per game. Kentucky wins with the only question being will they be interested enough to cover double digits with Alabama up next?
Advantage – Kentucky

The actual first game of the tournament may be played before a sparse gathering, as South Carolina takes on Mississippi State. The Gamecocks were turning the season around in late January heading into February with 4 wins in five games. A disappointing home loss to Kentucky caused the wheels to come off, as the East Coast version of USC lost 4 straight. Even though Mississippi State was mistake prone all season long, they did manage to finish .500 against the spread away from Starksville. South Carolina should advance, with the five point spread questionable either way.
Advantage – South Carolina

Quarter-Finals

You have to tip your hat to Coach Mark Gottfried who managed to keep Alabama fighting even after they lost their best player in Chucky Davis. NBA player-to-be Ron Steele picked up his game and carried the team on his back many nights in finishing tied for second in the West Division. Still the Crimson Tide was inconsistent and only won 3 of 10 games on the road. Kentucky can match or surpass Bama’s overall guard play and takes down the higher seeded team.
Advantage – Kentucky

The other matinee on Friday has surprise East Division champ Tennessee most likely meeting South Carolina. Bruce Pearl brought his “bombs away” style of basketball to Knoxville and the players willingly accepted. The league’s highest scoring team is lead by Chris Lofton who finished 4th in scoring at 17.5 PPG, tops in 3-pointers per game and 2nd in thefts. Though the Vols were only 2-3 to finish the season, the Gamecocks do not match-up well against Tennessee.
Advantage – Tennessee

The conference’s best team and most consistent arrives in Nashville having won six consecutive games and is on a major role. LSU has Darrel Mitchell pumping in the points from the outside and massive Glenn Davis working the lane. The two combine for 35.9 PPG. Another benefit of this team is they are 7-4 SU and ATS on the road. With Vanderbilt the likely opponent, this game should be close throughout, with Bengal Tigers superior work on the glass (+9.5 rebound margin) the difference.
Advantage – LSU

In Friday’s finale the red-hot Razorbacks play Florida. The Gators come in with a 4-5 record in last nine games. In truth the Gators were amazing most of the year and are probably playing to their true talent level now. That is not good news considering how Arkansas is playing. Led by SEC leading scorer Ron Brewer, the Razorbacks have adequate inside presence against a finesse team like Florida to beat them again. Another seeded team goes down.
Advantage – Arkansas

Semi-Finals

Kentucky and Tennessee split this season, each winning on the others home court. Unless you are from the South, you might not know how much these two schools hate each other, especially when it comes to basketball. After years of trying to build a new arena, that was turned down by the taxpayers, an enterprising Tennessee congressman suggested building a stadium larger then Kentucky’s Rupp Arena. The taxpayers passed the bill no problem. With how well Kentucky continues to play on the road and having faced the Volunteers twice, the Wildcats advance to the SEC title game.
Advantage – Kentucky

LSU beat Arkansas by the slimmest of margins 78-77 in a meeting back on January 14. The Razorbacks are a better team and Tigers are at least as good. Figure on another barn-burner with center Glenn Davis and company finding a way to win for the Tigers.
Advantage – LSU

Finals

It is nearly impossible to win four games in four days, but it does happen. As bad a Kentucky has been at home, it would only make sense for the Wildcats to do the impossible in this year’s crazy SEC. In a low scoring affair, KY takes the SEC crown yet again.
SEC Champions – Kentucky

Darkhorse – Kentucky
Spoiler – Arkansas
Bubble Team – Alabama

Odds to win SEC (by Sportsbook.com)

Florida 9-4
LSU 9-4
Tennessee 9-4
Field 9-4