The NCAA Basketball Tournament is now ready to tip off in just over 24 hours, you have filled out your brackets and now it is time to get down to serious business. Line makers from PlayersOnly.com or others do not shade or put out any loose lines this time of year. All the lines are sharper then a brand new Gillette Mach 3 turbo razor.

In order to pick winners in the first round you need solid information. It is often difficult to gain much of an edge since they seldom have played similar opponents. Thus the question becomes how can I give myself the best chance to win over the first 32 games of the tournament?

What I have done for the last 16 years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played through February 12. This is the center piece of my future action. Once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action.

Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago vs. what they are now they are goin’ dancin’. (The first two numbers)  Take their previous position in the league standings and once again compare them to what they were at the end of the regular season. (The 3rd and 4th numbers) The last piece of this puzzle is how they finished in their Conference Tourney. (The last number) Let me show what this should look like:

Arkansas 16-7    22-9     6-2    3rd     2nd    Lost Quarterfinals
 Bucknell  20-3   26-4     6-1    1st      1st     1st

In the first example, Arkansas had a good year and improved over the last part of the SEC season to move into second place in the West Division. They ran into what turned out to be the tournament champions in Florida and lost early in the SEC tourney. Bucknell was once again rock solid in the Patriot Conference and easily maneuvered thru the season. The Bison only loss late in the year was a Bracket Buster at Northern Iowa in overtime.

What we are really looking for is a team that is peaking at the right time vs. one that is sliding. Here is an example from the 2005 NCAA Tournament.

Pacific        21-3    26-4   5-1  1st    1st   2nd
Pittsburgh  17-4    20-8   3-4   3rd   5th    lost in Quarterfinals

This was an 8 vs. 9 game last year with Pacific actually holding the higher seed. Pittsburgh was a 4-point favorite and clearly falling. Pacific had actually not lost since the middle of December, before losing to rival Utah State in the Big West finals, a team they had beaten twice in the regular season. With this information and getting points, this became a quality play with real value. Pacific took the lead at halftime and built it into double digits before winning comfortably 79-71.

Let me share with you a game that is currently being strongly considered this NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee        18-3     21-7    3-4     1st    1st   Lost Quarterfinals
Winthrop         16-6     23-7    7-1      1st    1st   1st

Tennessee has the look of a team that has run out of gas and could have peaked. The Volunteers were the worst defensive team in the SEC allowing opponents to make 47.2% of their attempts. Winthrop won the Big South Conference last year and returned its top nine scorers from a year ago. The Eagles play good defense, holding opponents to 39.9% overall. Winthrop plays in a very weak league compared to the SEC, however beat Marquette in Milwaukee and played well at Alabama and at Memphis, two other teams in the tournament. This plus other factors might have me on Winthrop.

In my sixteen years of using this system, I have had only two losing opening rounds. If this sounds like bragging, it is not. Just like going through the FoxSheets on a daily basis or reviewing the free material on the website, the hard work I’ve done pays off because of what I have done all year. What this could do for you is turn a losing day into a profitable one, or take a good day and make it one you’ll never forget. If anyone needs a list of the standings from February 12, email me at dupstone@statfox.com and I’ll be happy to forward them to you.