StatFox Doug’s Musings
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 3/15/2006  at  4:31:00 PM

The time has finally arrived that all college basketball fans love, the NIT. All right, of course I’m joking, it is the NCAA tournament. This is another great American spectacle that is uniquely our own. Hundreds of millions of dollars are wagered in Nevada, off-shore accounts and in office pools across this great nation during this time. In has been proven that work productivity in offices drops better then 30% on the opening two days of the tournament. In fact, I’ve read articles this week where companies are making this a social event at work. Bring in lunch on Thursday for employees to take extended lunchs and reducing staff on Friday afternoon for those that want to leave. Pretty cool stuff.

One final thought on the committee and CBS. Why have the Tournament Chairman be interviewed anyways? They never relay any interesting information out. Does CBS (the partner) think this person is going to give any true insight? For example “This is the greatest collections of morons I’ve ever been associated with. They couldn’t tell if a basketball was round, let alone how to gauge a team’s success.” My point is this, would it be more interesting if Bradley beat Kansas or is Cincinnati did? It is the upset, normally coming from the smaller school, David and Goliath if you will, that makes this tournament great. Jim Nantz cred took a hit in my opinion based on his actions.

Everyone always looks at the 5 vs.12 game for upsets, which is certainly justifiable. As shown in StatFox Steve’s article, the 5th seed is 20-12 SU & but 14-17-1 ATS vs. the #12’s. The greatest value from the spread and money line perspective is the 7 vs. 10 match-up. In this contest, you have teams that are more evenly matched, thus giving the underdog a better opportunity to pull the upset. In these games the 10th seed is 16-16 SU & ATS.

I had a great discussion with the Big Guy. (StatFox Jeff) We both agreed that sometimes people go a little overboard in using one method or another in selecting winners for the tournament. He had proof it can be as simple as finding the team with the higher shooting percentage. Best advice, is follow the method that reads K.I.S.S. (not Gene Simmons thoughts)

Finally do not be influenced by the TV talking heads. They may be able to tell you what you’re seeing, but not pick winners. Clark Kellogg’s ludicrous statement of him not being surprised if all the top seeds make to Indianapolis is just plain dumb. Since the field was expanded to 64/65 teams this has NEVER happened. Anyone that has followed this season is in agreement that UConn, Duke and Texas are the best teams, that all have very visible warts. Study hard up until game time and you too can be very successful. I’d also recommend entering as many free contests as you can. Whether it is at SportingBetUSA.com or wherever you feel comfortable, the more the merrier to enhance your enjoyment.

Thanks for the time; these are my last few words…...

 

 


 


Copyright © 2006 StatFox.com. All rights reserved.