By:
Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 5/3/2006 at 4:58:00 PM
Can the Upcoming Season Possibly Live Up to Last?
Coming off what quite possibly was the greatest season in college football history, what is anyone supposed to do for an encore? How is anything that happens in 2006 going to be able to measure up to some of the moments we enjoyed in 2005? Rivalry games, last-second endings, breathtaking plays and players, great comebacks, you name it, there was plenty of it last season. Who could possibly forget the classic Texas-Ohio State & USC-Notre Dame games. Still, you need look no further than the Bowl Championship Series for the culmination of all that was right in college football a year ago. Four fantastic games loaded with traditional powers as well as high profile players and coaches. Finally the BCS actually lived up to its name. First there was the showdown between Ohio State and Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, matching a pair of old time rivals that figure to be in the championship hunt in 2006. Then there was the surprising upset by a young but talented West Virginia team over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. In the Orange Bowl, fans were treated to legendary coaching matchup between Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden, in which Joe Pa’s Penn State team outlasted Florida State. Last but certainly not least, there was the national championship Rose Bowl game, which not only lived up to the unattainable hype surrounding it, it totally blew it away.
No look back at the 2005 season would be complete without a full recap of that classic title game. It matched two of the best regular season teams in history, both storied programs with aspirations for a title that began as early as the end of the 2004 season. Texas had Vince Young, not the prototypical quarterback, but a college star the likes of which had not been seen for some time. USC had a number of stars, most notably QB Matt Leinart and RB Reggie Bush. The Trojans were just a game away from an unprecedented third straight national title. They brought a 33-game winning streak into the contest. By comparison, the Longhorns had only won a meager 19 straight games! Something had to give. USC was a 7-point favorite and jumped out of the gate fast, only to have Texas regain itself and take a 16-10 lead to the half. The Trojans eventually started to gain control in the second half, and when Leinart hit WR Dwayne Jarrett in the end zone with 6;42 to go to put the Trojans up 38-26, it appeared to be over. Young rallied the troops though, scoring quickly to come within five points with 4:03 remaining. From there, USC tried to run out the clock but a huge stop by Texas on a 4th & 2 play gave the ball back to the Longhorns offense. On the ensuing drive, Young was simply Young. Using both his arms and his legs, the junior quarterback drove his team down the field. On a 4th & 5 from the 8-yard line with less than 25 seconds left, Young escaped the pocket and ran to the pylon to send his team to its first national championship in over 30 years.
The 2005 season saw the resurgence of traditional powers Penn State, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Alabama, as well as the struggles of programs like Michigan and Tennessee, teams that have become accustomed to playing amongst the elite. Other programs like TCU, Tulsa, Akron, and Arkansas State had the chance to taste that rare conference championship, while others like Florida State, Georgia, and Boise State continued along the paths of success they’ve blazed in recent years. The Heisman Trophy went to USC star Bush by a stunningly wide margin, and Paterno collected most of the major coaching honors for his work in rejuvenating the Nittany Lions. Elsewhere on the coaching front, Charlie Weis of Notre Dame, and Steve Spurrier of South Carolina enjoyed solid first seasons with their clubs. Finally, we would be remiss if we didn’t touch upon the trials, tribulations, and heartache caused by Hurricane Katrina. Several teams, most notably Tulane, LSU, and Louisiana-Monroe, not only had their lives turned upside down, but their football seasons as well. Those college athletes displayed incredible courage and strength in dealing with the tragedy, and the country seemed to rally behind them.
As we look towards 2006, the field of contenders for the next national championship is wide open. Somewhere up to 15 teams have a legitimate shot at it if the ball bounces their way. You name the team though, and there’s a good chance that there is a recognizable weak spot, unlike USC & Texas of pre-2005. The Longhorns are down one stud quarterback, while the Trojans retool minus a host of NFL bound stars. Ohio State has its own championship hopes but a ton of holes to fill on defense. As usual, the ACC & SEC have plenty of hopefuls, but the schedules in those respective conference form a virtual murderer’s row. Elsewhere, Notre Dame, West Virginia, and Louisville come back loaded, but does anyone really believe those teams are ready to assume the college football throne? And don’t overlook Oklahoma, as with a win over Texas in October, the Sooners could be ready for the top spot. In other words, there doesn't appear to be one absolute, knock down favorite like there has been the past few years. In the end, it could make for an exciting BCS once again.
There will be some major changes affecting the game this season, ranging from replay, to schedules, to BCS variations. First off, instant replay will be used by all conferences now, and among the subtle changes to the system, coaches will now be given one challenge per game. Secondly, the schedules have gone back to 12 games. While this means more games for the fan to take in, it also lessens the chance for a team to go unbeaten through all 12 games, 13 when conference championships are involved. It all figures to make the BCS even more controversial than it has been.
Speaking of the BCS, their will now be a 5th game in the rotation, a national-championship contest at the new stadium in Phoenix. This year’s championship is scheduled for January 8th. With the extra game, the qualifying rules have changed as well. Like before, the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC will get an automatic spot in the BCS. Starting this year though, one champion from one of the other leagues (Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt or WAC) will get an automatic spot if it's ranked among the top 14 teams in the final BCS standings or is ranked among the top 16 teams in the final BCS standings and ranked higher than the champion of one of the BCS conference champions. That means that TCU would've been in the BCS last year. In another small wrinkle, FOX will take over the broadcast duties of the BCS for all games other than the Rose Bowl.
It should be an exciting and highly competitive season. As usual there will be plenty of great conference rivalries to revel in, but with the 12th game being added, there are some even more non-conference tilts that figure to have a huge impact on the national title scene. Here are a few of those:
- California at Tennessee, Sept. 2
- Miami at Louisville, Sept. 16
- Florida at Florida State, Nov. 25
- Nebraska at USC, Sept. 16
- Penn State at Notre Dame, Sept. 9
- Notre Dame at USC, Nov. 25
- Ohio State at Texas, Sept. 9
You’ll find all of those teams ranked within the third annual StatFox Top 25 preseason rankings. For the record, we listed USC & Texas as #1 & #2 a year ago, though that wasn’t much of a stretch. For 2006, Texas tops our rankings, which have been determined using an inexact formula of power ratings, returning players, and recent statistics. Note that these are general preseason strength indicators and that over the course of the season, many factors, including schedule strength, home/road matchups, injuries, and even some luck will go into determining who finishes where. If you’d like to see who StatFox thinks will be there at the end, take a look at our bowl projections, and our conference predictions scattered throughout the college preview pages.
2006 StatFox Preseason Top 25 College Football Teams
1. Texas Longhorns
(2005 RECORD: 13-0 (11-2 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 9 D: 7)
Vince Young may be gone, but the defending champs are still experienced and loaded. RB Jamaal Charles and new QB Jevan Sneed will be stars in this backfield by season’s end. The experience of finally getting over the hump will help too. Unless upset, the Longhorns figure to live near the top of the BCS standings all year.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
(2005 RECORD: 10-2 (9-3 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 8 D: 2)
Ohio State has a huge retooling job on the defensive side of the ball, but word is that the incoming starters could be better than the most recent group. Plus, on offense, the Buckeyes boast a pair of Heisman candidates in QB Troy Smith and WR Ted Ginn. This team’s sights are set on another national title.
3. USC Trojans
(2005 RECORD: 12-1 (6-7 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 4 D: 6)
For the first time in several years, the USC program faces many questions, both on and off the field. However, HC Pete Carroll’s recruiting classes have been awesome though, and new stars are ready to replace the departed. QB John David Booty will be a household name by December.
4. LSU Tigers
(2005 RECORD: 11-2 (6-5 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 6 D: 5)
Having endured as much turmoil as LSU did a year ago, to finish 11-2 was a huge accomplishment. The 40-3 Peach Bowl win over Miami was a sign of what this team is capable of in 2006. The Tigers boast three all-SEC capable quarterbacks, and RB Alley Broussard should be back at 100%.
5. West Virginia Mountaineers
(2005 RECORD: 11-1 (9-2 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 7 D: 5)
Boasting a young squad in a supposed rebuilding year, West Virginia enjoyed its best season in years in 2005, winning the Big East title and the Sugar Bowl. With QB White, RB Slaton, & company a year older, we’ll see how they react to huge expectations in ’06.
6. Oklahoma Sooners
(2005 RECORD: 8-4 (6-6 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 4 D: 8)
After a slow start to the 2005 season, the Sooners looked like the team of old as year wound down. Riding the momentum of a strong finish and the legs of workhorse RB Adrian Petersen, look for Oklahoma to give Texas a run for the Big 12, and possibly national, title again.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
(2005 RECORD: 9-3 (7-5 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 7 D: 9)
Was any other team more fun to watch in 2005 than Charlie Weis’ Notre Dame squad? The Irish improved by three games last year, earning a Fiesta Bowl berth. With QB Brady Quinn, a bona fide Heisman frontrunner, back for his senior year, this team expects at least another BCS appearance.
8. Auburn Tigers
(2005 RECORD: 9-3 (8-3 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 5 D: 6)
Auburn was quite possibly the best team in the SEC at the close of the 2005 campaign. The loss to Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl should be a huge motivating factor for this team to reach elite goals in 2006. This program is slowly emerging as one of the new era Superpowers.
9. Florida Gators
(2005 RECORD: 9-3 (7-5 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 6 D: 6)
HC Urban Meyer’s last two teams took off in his second year with those programs. If the same holds true in Florida, the sky’s the limit for this team in 2006. The offense started to roll at the end of last season. With QB Chris Leak back as a senior, there’s no reason to expect that trend won’t continue.
10. Louisville Cardinals
(2005 RECORD: 9-3 (6-6 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 6 D: 6)
One of the best offenses in the country over the last few seasons figures to be just as good or better in 2006. With QB Brian Brohm and RB Micheal Bush returning, forays into the 50-point range should be regular. The Cardinals also host West Virginia in what figures to be the Big East’s biggest game.
11. Florida State Seminoles
(2005 RECORD: 8-5 (6-6 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 5 D: 4)
For the first time in several years, Florida State has a quarterback it feels it can rely on enough to compete for a national title. QB Drew Weatherford, now a sophomore, returns along with stud RB Lorenzo Booker. The schedule stacks up favorably for a title run if the Seminoles can get by Miami in week one.
12. Georgia Bulldogs
(2005 RECORD: 10-3 (6-7 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 4 D: 5)
If you recall, Georgia was forced to “reload” last season, thanks to the graduation of perhaps its best senior class ever. The result: Ten wins and another SEC Championship. Only nine starters return in 2006, but HC Mark Richt’s stellar recruiting classes are paying dividends for the Bulldogs.
13. California Golden Bears
(2005 RECORD: 8-4 (3-8 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 7 D: 8)
Running back Marshawn Lynch could put up some sick numbers in 2006. This offense simply produces. Sooner or later, perhaps HC Jeff Tedford is going get full credit for it. With three solid quarterbacks in place, and 16 starters returning, Cal has the experience and talent to have another special season.
14. Michigan Wolverines
(2005 RECORD: 7-5 (4-7 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 6 D: 8)
Michigan lost five games in a season for the first time in over two decades last year, however, all of them were by a TD or less. Being that close, and returning the skill players that the Wolverines do in 2006, you have to figure them a prime candidate for a turnaround season. Expect a run at the Big Ten title again.
15. Miami Hurricanes
(2005 RECORD: 9-3 (4-8 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 5 D: 6)
Miami changed everything but the color of its jerseys after the 40-3 Peach Bowl humiliation. Several assistant coaches and half of the team’s starting lineup will be new in 2006. However, with QB Wright & RB Moss back, the offense should be much improved, and the defense will be big, strong, and athletic as always.
16. Virginia Tech Hokies
(2005 RECORD: 11-2 (10-3 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 5 D: 5)
Two years in the ACC, nearly two conference titles. Simply put, the best team didn’t win it last year. Virginia Tech has proven comfortable in its new surroundings, in fact, leading the country in total defense last year. Only 10 starters are back, but Beamer-ball has produced double-digit win seasons regularly of late.
17. Tennessee Volunteers
(2005 RECORD: 5-6 (3-8 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 6 D: 5)
Perhaps #17 in the country is a bit overzealous of a preseason ranking for Tennessee, coming off a 5-6 season, but few programs can match this team’s success over the past decade. Always strong on defense, QB Erik Ainge figures to lead an offensive resurgence. The Vols don’t just hope to bounce back, they expect to.
18. Clemson Tigers
(2005 RECORD: 8-4 (8-4 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 9 D: 7)
With one of the most experienced teams in the ACC, Clemson figures to carryover its momentum of 2005, when it won its last four games. Sixteen starters are back, including one of the nation’s best kickers, so close games won’t be a concern. Considering the Tigers beat FSU by 21 late in the season, will there be many close games?
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers
(2005 RECORD: 8-4 (6-5 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 8 D: 7)
If the 2006 Nebraska football team is anything like the one that closed the 2005 season, fans in Lincoln could be in for a real treat. The Cornhuskers finally started to fully grasp the schemes of 2nd year HC Bill Callahan. Plus, he has recruited well so far. This team may be on the cusp of a long run of Big 12 title contending seasons.
20. Penn State Nittany Lions
(2005 RECORD: 11-1 (8-4 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 5 D: 4)
2005 was one of those magical seasons at State College. Everything clicked, and only a last second defeat kept the Nittany Lions from going unbeaten. HC Joe Paterno was certainly worthy of all the coaching honors he scooped up. The 2006 team will be hard pressed to match that success, but should still be quite good.
21. Iowa Hawkeyes
(2005 RECORD: 7-5 (5-6 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 7 D: 7)
The incredible linebackers that paced this defense for the past few years are gone to the NFL, but two key cornerstones of recent Iowa success are still in place. HC Kirk Ferentz declined offers from the NFL, and former conference MVP QB Drew Tate returns. He could single handedly keep this team in Big Ten contention.
22. Arizona State Sun Devils
(2005 RECORD: 7-5 (6-6 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 10 D: 5)
With two of the nation’s top 5 passers last season returning for 2006, Arizona State’s offense will put up some prolific numbers. Sam Keller & Rudy Carpenter are both capable of leading this team to a special season. If the defense holds up its end of the bargain, the Sun Devils could threaten USC’s Pac 10 supremacy.
23. TCU Horned Frogs
(2005 RECORD: 11-1 (9-3 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 10 D: 7)
A lackadaisical loss to SMU in week two was the only thing that stood between TCU and a perfect season in 2005. Had the Horned Frogs won that contest, they would have landed in one of the elite BCS bowl games. Instead, after settling for a MWC title, this veteran team will have the motivation to take it a step further in 2006.
24. Boston College Golden Eagles
(2005 RECORD: 9-3 (7-5 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 6 D: 6)
Back-to-back 9-win seasons and six consecutive bowl game victories are sure-fire signs that Boston College has emerged as a national power. The ACC is all the better for it. The Eagles lose a lot of production from last year’s squad, but the hard-nosed, physical brand of football seems to be a good fit for their new surroundings.
25. Texas Tech Red Raiders
(2005 RECORD: 9-3 (4-6 ATS), RETURNING STARTERS: O: 8 D: 5)
Texas Tech was finally able to take a step up the ladder of the Big 12 South standings in 2005, overtaking Oklahoma for 2nd place. Sure, the Sooners may have been down, but the Red Raiders were much improved, particularly on defense. It was HC Mike Leach’s best team ever. They could be as good or better in ’06.
Also receiving consideration:
Alabama, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Iowa State, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, Utah, UTEP, and Wisconsin
Potential Surprises:
Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas State, North Texas, San Diego State, SMU, Stanford, Texas A&M
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