The StatFox FoxSheets present the professional or “semi-professional” handicapper an opportunity to have one solid screen of pertinent and useful information on your PC per game. With the amount of data available, we receive literally hundreds of calls a week about how to use and formulate this info into a working and useful tool. I thought I would share how I figured a way to best utilize them. Please understand this is just one of the countless ways to use the FoxSheets, this is designed to provide the stimulus for you either to use yourself or to determine your own personal methods for success. I will share with you some results I have uncovered after you read this.

How to use FoxSheets for MLB

The most important element is determining if the money line number is actually accurate in my opinion. MLB is a grind and you need to understand what the numbers mean. There are hundreds of ways to determine a Power Rating system if you will, here is the one I use to help me understand if I’m starting in the right spot. After possibly two or three weeks of the season, the numbers start to develop in a manner that is useful to check the lines. Here are the criteria I developed from the FoxSheets.

1) Teams winning percentage
2) Record over the last 7 games
3) Bullpen won/loss record (percentage)
4) Save percentage
5) Starting pitchers current record + record since 1997.(percentage)

I start with the team’s record, which is important because that is how they have played on the season. The last seven games give an indication of how each team has been playing lately. With fewer and fewer starting pitchers going deep into games, the bullpens importance has been enhanced tremendously. The bullpens win/lost record tells me about their performance to hold or lose leads during the course of the games and save percentage tells me about how they finish off games. The starting pitchers current record of course tells me how his performance and the historical number tell me about this pitcher against particular teams.

Here is what a game match-up would look like with the corresponding numbers from above.

4-17-06 – Cubs at Dodgers (Cubs-120)
Cubs                           Dodgers
1) 636                          462
2) 571                          428
3) 1000                        0
4) 1000                        600
5) 636                          428

Total - 3843                   1918

Early in the year, the numbers are somewhat less accurate given the number of games played. As this season moves forward the numbers become tighter and more accurate. Going into this game, the Cubs bullpen has been brilliant to start the season, explaining the max numbers in lines 3 and 4. Conversely, the Dodgers pen had already lost all 5 attempts and blown two of five save chances.

Now I take the Totals and divide by the number of lines, in this case 5.
3843 divided by 5 and 1918 divided by 5.
The Cubs new number becomes 768 and the Dodgers 383. Then I subtract the higher number against the lower.

768 – 383 = 385

I’ll use this number and divide by 2.

385 divided by 2 = 192.5

I’ll round the number down each time, in this case to 192. From here I check the official line, with the Cubs a -120 at BetCris.com when I looked it up. Anytime I have a difference greater then 30, which I do in this case, this contest is now a potential play.

I always check for key Situational Systems that make sense and both groups of Power Trends. The Situational Systems are important because they apply to all teams and the Power Trends may show a unique angle worth noting. I’ll quickly peruse looking for very high percentages. I’ll also look for a difference of 8 or greater in the Situational between teams and the Power Trends a difference of 10 or more. A quick look at the Line Tracker, Money Tracker and Manager Trends I’m ready to make a decision.

The entire process of your typical 15 game schedule takes me about 60-70 minutes if I can do it at a sitting. Otherwise, typically I do the math the night before, since I’m in a West Coast time zone and have more final scores from the previous day.          

As the season wears on, I’ll add a 6th number, each team’s home and road winning percentage after 50 games. This tightens the numbers further based on how each team has playing in either case after over a quarter of the season. I’ll use this system with the help of all the information from the FoxSheets from the aforementioned time until the end of August, when teams expand rosters for various reasons, thus making this method less effective. It is important to be familiar with all the teams and know other factors in making a profit from wagering on baseball. As I said in the beginning, this method hones in on how accurate a money line actually is giving you a better opportunity to win.

Of course other unique situational factors occur like a new starting pitcher from the minors or trades changing dynamics of teams. If you choose to use this method, you will develop your own personal tastes in which you can have the same success as I’ve had in baseball over the years since developing this method.       

Any questions should be sent to dupstone@statfox.com