By:
Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 3/25/2008 at 5:43:00 PM
It has been awhile, but the number one wagering choice to win the American League is the Detroit Tigers at 2-1 odds. The Tigers organization was aggressive in signing 3B Miguel Cabrera and P Dontrelle Willis, to go with formidable components already in place. Cleveland took the baseball world by surprise, as C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona led a stellar pitching staff to Central Division crown. For the Indians to defend crown, players like Grady Sizemore and Travis Haffner are going to have to be more productive at the dish. The Tribe is 7-4 to repeat at Sportsbook.com. Go to Dictionary.com and click on “underachieving” and a picture of the 2007 Chicago White Sox appears. This team did not hit or pitch in having worst season in 18 years and acquisitions added optimism, if not bullet-proof results for Pale Hose, who are 10-1 to win division. Some prognosticators believe Minnesota could fall all the way to the basement in AL Central, though it seems unlikely with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. How effective the starting rotation is for the Twins will determine there fate. Kansas City still lost 93 games last season; nonetheless optimism is higher than at any point this century heading into the season. The Royals homegrown talent along with dependable veterans has K.C. fans thinking about Colorado’s success. Here's a look at each of the teams in the AL Central Division, including 2007 key stats and situational records, offseason moves, projected lineups, plus keys and predictions for 2008.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: OZZIE GUILLEN
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 72-90 (0.444), +-11.8 ML Units (#18 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 72-82-8
StatFox Power Rating: : 81 (#30 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 87.5 (-130)/Under 87.5 (even)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 38-43 (-8.15 ML Units)
Road Games: 34-47 (-3.63 ML Units)
vs. Division: 39-33 (+10.8 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 4-14 (-11.18 ML Units)
Day Games: 25-36 (-8.83 ML Units)
Night Games: 47-54 (-2.95 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 16-28 (-12.35 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 56-62 (+0.57 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 4.28 (#28 of 30), Allowed - 5.18 (#24 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.90 (#29 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.246 (#30 of 30), Opponent - 0.276 (#24 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 190 (#6 of 30), Opponent - 174 (#22 of 30)Arrivals: OF Nick Swisher, SS Orlando Cabrera, OF Carlos Quentin, RHPs Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel
Departures: RHP Jon Garland, OFs Darin Erstad and Scott Podsednik, IF Alex Cintron
Projected Starters:
C - A.J. Pierzynski (.263/14/50)
1B - Paul Konerko (.259/31/90)
2B - Juan Uribe (.234/20/68)
SS - Orlando Cabrera (.301/8/86)
3B - Joe Crede (.216/4/22)
LF - Carlos Quentin (.214/5/31)
CF - Nick Swisher (.262/22/78)
RF - Jermaine Dye (.254/28/78)
DH - Jim Thome (.275/35/96)Projected Rotation:
LHP - Mark Buehrle (10-9, 3.36)
RHP - Javier Vazquez (15-8, 3.74)
RHP - Jose Contreras (10-17, 5.57)
LHP - John Danks (6-13, 5.50)
RHP - Gavin Floyd (1-5, 5.27)Projected Closer:
RHP - Bobby Jenks (3-5, 2.77, 40 Saves)Strengths: The White Sox belted 190 home runs in 2007, the second-most in the American League. Swisher figures to help improve that total, considering he hit 22 last season while playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly stadium. ... Cabrera adds speed and solid defense. ... Chicago needs to find a spot in the lineup for Josh Fields, who led all AL rookies with 23 homers and drove in 67 runs in just 100 games. Ditto for Jerry Owens, who stole 32 bases - also tops among AL rookies. ... Vazquez bounced back from consecutive losing seasons to post his highest wins total since 2001 with Montreal. Buehrle also enjoyed a return to form after a sub-par 2006.
Weaknesses: Chicago batted just .243 with runners in scoring position last season, the worst mark in the American League. The club also brought up the rear in scoring and on-base percentage. ... The White Sox struggled defensively, committing 108 errors. ... Crede was limited to 47 games in 2007 due to a back injury that required surgery. ... Konerko's batting average dropped an astounding 54 points last campaign. At 32 years old, Chicago must hope this is not the beginning of the end for the slugger.
Rotation Outlook: Buehrle was solid as the ace of the staff despite posting just 10 wins. He lowered his ERA from 4.99 to 3.63 and held opponents to a .269 average after they batted .305 against him in 2006. ... Vazquez also had a strong season, ranking fourth in the AL with 213 strikeouts and coming within one win of his career high. ... Contreras needs to rebound from a dismal 2007, while Danks must improve upon his 7.11 ERA in the second half. ... Parting with Garland could prove costly.
Bullpen Situation: : Jenks is a top-notch closer, but the rest of the relief corps is sketchy. Dotel is a major injury risk, Linebrink struggled after being traded from San Diego to Milwaukee in the middle of last season and Mike MacDougal is an enigma wrapped inside an anomaly. ... Matt Thornton has the makings of an effective lefthander but had his problems last season.
Projected Finish: Fourth in AL Central
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: ERIC WEDGE
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 102-71 (0.59), +15.4 ML Units (#4 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 78-87-8
StatFox Power Rating: : 110 (#7 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 90 (-115)/Under 90 (-115)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 55-30 (+11.35 ML Units)
Road Games: 47-41 (+4.05 ML Units)
vs. Division: 48-24 (+16.7 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 9-9 (-5.1 ML Units)
Day Games: 27-18 (+4.15 ML Units)
Night Games: 75-53 (+11.25 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 33-19 (+11.3 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 69-52 (+4.1 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 5.01 (#8 of 30), Allowed - 4.35 (#5 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): +0.66 (#3 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.268 (#14 of 30), Opponent - 0.269 (#16 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 178 (#9 of 30), Opponent - 146 (#5 of 30)Arrivals: RHPs Jorge Julio and Masahide Kobayashi, IF Jamey Carroll
Departures: OF Kenny Lofton, OF Chris Gomez, OF Trot Nixon
Projected Starters:
C - Victor Martinez (.301/25/114)
1B - Ryan Garko (.289/21/61)
2B - Asdrubal Cabrera (.283/3/22)
SS - Jhonny Peralta (.270/21/72)
3B - Casey Blake (.270/18/78)
LF - David Dellucci (.230/4/20)
CF - Grady Sizemore (.277/24/78)
RF - Franklin Gutierrez (.266/13/36)
DH - Travis Hafner (.266/24/100)Projected Rotation:
LHP - C.C Sabathia (19-7, 3.21)
RHP - Fausto Carmona (19-8, 3.06)
RHP - Paul Byrd (15-8, 4.59)
RHP - Jake Westbrook (6-9, 4.32)
LHP - Aaron Laffey (4-2, 4.56)Projected Closer:
RHP - Joe Borowski (4-5, 5.07, 45 saves)Strengths: The starting rotation should be the key to success yet again for the Indians, who return two 19-game winners in Sabathia and Carmona. ... Injuries and off-the-field problems plague the rest of the staff, but they should be solid if healthy and in the right frame of mind. ... The bullpen did a fantastic job last season, most notably set-up men Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez. Even though he got a bad rap, Borowski led the American League in saves and arguably had only three truly bad outings, including one in April that forced his ERA to skyrocket. ... Sizemore is one of baseball's brighest young stars and likely has yet to peak.
Weaknesses: Hafner had a sub-par season by his standards and will need to rebound in order for the Indians to keep pace with Detroit's potent offense. ... Blake hit just .190 with runners in scoring position, and top prospect Andy Marte did little to make Blake fear for his job. ... Cleveland basically is going with the same group as last year, which obviously was good enough to win the division. But with Detroit's improvement and the Chicago White Sox looking to bounce back, a lot will have to break right in order for the Indians to repeat - namely another superb season from Sabathia and the ability for Carmona to prove 2007 was no fluke.
Rotation Outlook: Barring any steps back, Sabathia and Carmona make up one of the American League's best 1-2 punches atop a rotation. ... After coming within two wins of his career high last season, Byrd has to prove the effort was not the product of HGH use. ... Westbrook battled injuries last season following back-to-back 15-win campaigns. His health figures to be key. ... The 22-year-old Laffey is slotted in the No. 5 position, but Cliff Lee - a former 18-game winner - could find his way back in the rotation before long.
Bullpen Situation: : If Borowski cannot duplicate his impressive season, Kobayashi could step in. The 33-year-old recorded 27 saves in his native Japan in 2007. ... Betancourt and Perez were phenomenal in getting the game to Borowski last season. Betancourt, who could be the team's future closer, posted a 1.47 ERA while striking out 80 in 79 1/3 innings, while the lefthanded Perez had a 1.78 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 60 2/3 frames. ... Southpaw Aaron Fultz held lefthanded hitters to a .191 average.
Projected Finish: Second in AL Central
DETROIT TIGERS
Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: JIM LEYLAND
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 88-74 (0.543), +0.7 ML Units (#10 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 79-70-13
StatFox Power Rating: : 110 (#5 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 92.5 (-115)/Under 92.5 (-115)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 45-36 (-4.25 ML Units)
Road Games: 43-38 (+5 ML Units)
vs. Division: 36-36 (-8.35 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 14-4 (+9.7 ML Units)
Day Games: 30-24 (+0.9 ML Units)
Night Games: 58-50 (-0.15 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 28-15 (+13.05 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 60-59 (-12.3 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 5.48 (#3 of 30), Allowed - 4.92 (#19 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): +0.56 (#6 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.287 (#2 of 30), Opponent - 0.266 (#11 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 177 (#10 of 30), Opponent - 174 (#21 of 30)Arrivals: 3B Miguel Cabrera , LHP Dontrelle Willis, SS Edgar Renteria, OF Jacque Jones
Departures: 1B Sean Casey, LHP Andrew Miller, OF Cameron Maybin, C Mike Rabelo
Projected Starters:
C - Ivan Rodriguez (.281/11/63)
1B - Carlos Guillen (.296/21/102)
2B - Placido Palanco (.341/9/67)
SS - Edgar Renteria (.332/12/57)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (.320/34/119)
LF - Jacque Jones (.285/5/66)
CF - Curtis Granderson (.302/23/74)
RF - Magglio Ordonez (.363/28/139)
DH - Gary Sheffield (.265/25/75)Projected Rotation:
RHP - Justin Verlander (18-6, 3.66)
LHP - Kenny Rogers (3-4, 4.43)
RHP - Jeremy Bonderman (11-9, 5.01)
LHP - Dontrelle Willis (10-15, 5.17)
LHP - Nate Robertson (9-13, 4.76)Projected Closer:
RHP - Todd Jones (1-4, 4.26, 38 saves)Strengths: The additions of Cabrera, Renteria and Jones to an already stellar lineup gives manager Jim Leyland perhaps the most potent offense in the American League. ... Renteria's arrival allows Guillen to move to first base. In addition to knee problems, Guillen committed 53 errors at shortstop over the past two seasons. ... Polanco went the entire 2007 season without a fielding miscue. ... With Cabrera and Sheffield ahead of him in the lineup, Ordonez will see more pitches than ever. That's a frightening thought, considering he led the AL in hitting last season.
Weaknesses: The Tigers have numerous players who could be bitten by the injury bug. Health will be a key to their success. ... Detroit is hoping a change of scenery will help Willis bounce back from a disappointing 2007. But the fact the quirky lefthander is moving to the more offensive American League does not exactly bode well for him. ... Depth is not the Tigers' strong suit. If one or more regulars go down with injuries, their options are limited.
Rotation Outlook: Verlander is clearly the ace of this staff and could improve on last season's career-high 18 wins due to the Tigers' high-powered offense. ... If Rogers and Bonderman can remain healthy, Detroit could reach 100 wins. ... Robertson has not posted a winning record since 2004.
Bullpen Situation: : Injuries already have hit the Tigers' bullpen. Bad shoulders have Joel Zumaya out until at least midseason and Fernando Rodney beginning the campaign on the disabled list. ... Back for another season as the closer is Jones, who turns 40 on April 24. ... Getting the ball in Jones' hands will be a chore, as Zach Miner, Tim Byrdak, Bobby Seay and Jason Grilli will have to bridge the gap in the absence of Rodney and Zumaya.
Projected Finish: First in AL Central
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: TREY HILLMAN
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 69-93 (0.426), +-2 ML Units (#13 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 63-88-11
StatFox Power Rating: : 96 (#19 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 73.5 (-115)/Under 73.5 (-115)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 35-46 (-7.25 ML Units)
Road Games: 34-47 (+5.24 ML Units)
vs. Division: 29-43 (-4.43 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 10-8 (+3.95 ML Units)
Day Games: 21-23 (+5.9 ML Units)
Night Games: 48-70 (-7.91 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 19-26 (+0.09 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 50-67 (-2.1 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 4.36 (#27 of 30), Allowed - 4.8 (#17 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.44 (#21 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.261 (#22 of 30), Opponent - 0.277 (#25 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 102 (#30 of 30), Opponent - 168 (#18 of 30)Arrivals: OF Jose Guillen, RHPs Kyle Davies, Brett Tomko and Yasuhiko Yabuta, LHP Ron Mahay, C Miguel Olivo
Departures: DH Mark Sweeney, OFs Reggie Sanders and Emil Brown, RHP David Riske, LHP Odalis Perez
Projected Starters:
C - John Buck (.222/18/48)
1B - Ross Gload (.288/7/51)
2B - Mark Grudzielanek (.302/6/51)
SS - Tony Pena (.267/2/47)
3B - Alex Gordon (.247/15/60)
LF - Mark Teahen (.285/7/60)
CF - David DeJesus (.260/7/58)
RF - Jose Guillen (.290/23/99)
DH - Billy Butler (.292/8/52)Projected Rotation:
RHP - Gil Meche (9-13, 3.67)
RHP - Brian Bannister (12-9, 3.87)
LHP - Zach Greinke (7-7, 3.69)
RHP - Brett Tomko (4-12, 5.55)
LHP - John Bale (1-1, 4.05)Projected Closer:
RHP - Joakim Soria (2-3, 2.48, 17 saves)Strengths: The Royals have the makings of a solid offense. Once he returns from his 15-game suspension, Guillen should provide some pop. Butler is a pure hitter, while Gordon rebounded from a poor first half to hit .285 with 12 home runs and 52 RBI in his last 98 games of the season. ... Meche was a pleasant surprise but suffered from a lack of support, as Kansas City scored just 12 runs while he was in the game in his 13 losses. ... The bullpen was solid, finishing sixth in the AL with a 3.85 ERA. Overall, the Royals' staff posted a 4.48 ERA - its lowest since 1994.
Weaknesses: With the exception of Guillen, Kansas City does not possess much power. Teahen, DeJesus and Gload hit only seven home runs apiece last season. ... Teahen also has problems making contact, as he struck out 127 times in 2007 - the fifth-highest total in major league history among players with fewer than eight homers. ... Buck has yet to live up to his potential, and some are wondering if he ever will.
Rotation Outlook: Meche made a great first impression after signing a five-year, $55 million contract last offeseason. The righthander had an ERA under 4.00 despite finishing four games under .500 and was the team's lone All-Star representative. ... Bannister also was a nice acquisition, making the Mets wish they never traded him. ... Greinke pitched mainly out of the bullpen but finally showed signs of why Kansas City drafted him sixth overall in 2002. ... Tomko and Bale are no locks for the last two spots in the rotation, as Jorge De La Rosa, Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies could work their way into the mix.
Bullpen Situation: : Soria inherited the closer's role when Octavio Dotel was traded and performed well. ... The rest of the relief corps is solid if unspectactular. Mahay is a reliable setup man, while Jimmy Gobble is the situational lefty and Brandon Duckworth the long man. ... Joel Peralta, Leo Nunez and Japanese import Yabuta could find themselves taking turns in the setup role.
Projected Finish: Fifth in AL Central
MINNESOTA TWINS
Division: AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: RON GARDENHIRE
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 79-83 (0.488), +-15.5 ML Units (#23 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 68-87-7
StatFox Power Rating: : 98 (#17 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 75.5 (-105)/Under 75.5 (-125)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 41-40 (-15.15 ML Units)
Road Games: 38-43 (-0.33 ML Units)
vs. Division: 28-44 (-23.9 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 11-7 (+0.7 ML Units)
Day Games: 28-26 (+1.42 ML Units)
Night Games: 51-57 (-16.9 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 22-24 (-5.3 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 57-59 (-10.18 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 4.43 (#25 of 30), Allowed - 4.48 (#7 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.05 (#15 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.264 (#18 of 30), Opponent - 0.269 (#17 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 118 (#29 of 30), Opponent - 185 (#25 of 30)Arrivals: OFs Delmon Young, Craig Monroe and Carlos Gomez, IFs Mike Lamb Adam Everett and Brendan Harris, RHP Livan Hernandez
Departures: LHP Johan Santana, OF Torii Hunter, IF Jason Bartlett RHPs Carlos Silva and Matt Garza
Projected Starters:
C - Joe Mauer (.293/7/60)
1B - Justin Morneau (.271/31/111)
2B - Brendan Harris (.283/12/59)
SS - Adam Everett (.232/2/15)
3B - Mike Lamb (.289/11/40)
LF - Delmon Young (.288/13/93)
CF - Carlos Gomez (.232/2/12)
RF - Michael Cuddyer (.276/16/81)
DH - Jason Kubel (.273/13/65)Projected Rotation:
RHP - Livan Hernandez (11-11, 4.93)
RHP - Scott Baker (9-9, 4.26)
RHP - Boof Bonser (8-12, 5.10)
LHP - Francisco Liriano (injured, missed season)
RHP - Kevin Slowey (4-1, 4.73)Projected Closer:
RHP - Joe Nathan (4-2, 1.88, 37 saves)Strengths: Mauer and Morneau both figure to rebound from sub-par 2007 seasons. Morneau, who was the 2006 American League Most Valuable Player, was undisciplined at times, while Mauer saw most of his offensive numbers decrease. ... Young and Gomez should help speed up the team's rebuilding phase. Young drove in 93 runs for Tampa Bay last season and is considered a future MVP candidate, and Gomez was one of the New York Mets' top prospects. ... Nathan is among the top closers in the game.
Weaknesses: While the Twins obviously could not afford to keep Santana, they will sorely miss him. ... Beyond Morneau, Mauer and possibly Young, no one in the lineup will strike fear in opposing pitchers. Young must also become more disciplined at the plate. ... Getting the ball to Nathan could be a problem as
Rotation Outlook: Hernandez has been a workhorse over his career, but he is 33 years old and pitching in the American League for the first time. ... Baker has shown signs of toughness and has good velocity. He has a chance to be the team's ace before long. ... It may be too much to ask of Liriano to pick up where he left off in 2006 following "Tommy John" surgery. The 24-year-old lefthander went 12-3 before missing the entire 2007 campaign. ... Bonser and Slowey are question marks, although the former has shown flashes.
Bullpen Situation: : Beyond Nathan, Pat Neshek, who was dominant in the first half of 2007 before tiring, and Matt Guerrier, who proved his worth last season, the Twins have health issues. Juan Rincon reportedly has a tender elbow, although he denies it, Jesse Crain is coming off shoulder surgery and Dennys Reyes' 2007 campaign ended early due to an inflamed tendon in his left elbow.
Projected Finish: Third in AL Central
* Divisional Previews were compiled by Steve Makinen & Doug Upstone with contributions from PA Sports Ticker.
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