By:
Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 3/25/2008 at 5:44:00 PM
The Colorado Rockies proved if you get hot at the right time in baseball, good things can happen. This long dormant franchise was on a Rocky Mountain high as Denver was excited about some besides the Broncos in the fall. Winning 21 of 22 games to make the World Series is not the best foundation to build a yearly contender, however management believes they have the confidence and winning formula to return to postseason. Bettors are less inclined to give away cash, with Rocks third choice to win West at 7-2 odds at Sportsbook.com. Arizona won division and 90 games despite scoring fewer runs than they allowed. The D-Backs added Danny Haren to go along with ace Brandon Webb, and are counting on young players to manufacture more runs consistently than last year. The Snakes are 9-5 to win division; however, teams 10 or more games over .500 in one run games, are not secure wagers the following year. The Dodgers for reason unknown are 3-2odds to win division title. The starting nine sounds better than it will play, and try and figure out 20 wins out of fourth and fifth starters. Cavernous Petco Park is curse and blessing for San Diego. The Padres can pitch and nobody can hit. The Friars need Angels-style offense to manufacture more runs and let pitching do the rest. Barry Bonds is gone and Barry Zito is stealing money from Giants. Aging players are past prime and San Francisco will finish last, despite hard throwing youngsters. At least the park is nice in the daytime. Here's a look at each of the teams in the NL West Division, including 2007 key stats and situational records, offseason moves, projected lineups, plus keys and predictions for 2008.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: BOB MELVIN
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 93-76 (0.55), +17.2 ML Units (#3 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 71-89-9
StatFox Power Rating: : 99 (#15 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 86 (-115)/Under 86 (-115)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 52-33 (+12.8 ML Units)
Road Games: 41-43 (+4.42 ML Units)
vs. Division: 36-40 (-5.85 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 8-7 (+0.6 ML Units)
Day Games: 21-23 (-2 ML Units)
Night Games: 72-53 (+19.22 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 28-19 (+10.27 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 65-57 (+6.95 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 4.4 (#26 of 30), Allowed - 4.52 (#10 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.12 (#18 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.250 (#29 of 30), Opponent - 0.262 (#9 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 171 (#16 of 30), Opponent - 169 (#19 of 30)Arrivals: RHPs Dan Haren and Chad Qualls, OF Trot Nixon, IF Chris Burke
Departures: RHPs Jose Valverde and Livan Hernandez, LHP Dana Eveland, OF Carlos Quentin
Projected Starters:
C - Chris Snyder (.252/13/47)
1B - Conor Jackson (.284/15/60)
2B - Orlando Hudson (.294/10/63)
SS - Stephen Drew (.238/12/60)
3B - Chad Tracy (.264/7/35)
LF - Eric Byrnes (.286/21/83)
CF - Chris Young (.237/32/68)
RF - Justin Upton (.221/2/11)Projected Rotation:
RHP - Brandon Webb (18-10, 3.01)
RHP - Dan Haren (15-9, 3.07)
LHP - Randy Johnson (4-3, 3.81)
LHP - Doug Davis (13-12, 4.25)
RHP - Micah Owings (8-8, 4.30)Projected Closer:
RHP - Brandon Lyon (6-4, 2.68, 2 saves)Strengths: Despite being outscored by 20 runs last season, Arizona managed to win 90 games due to its league-best 32-20 record in one-run contests. ... The Diamondbacks might have the best 1-2 punch in baseball with Webb and Haren, and if healthy, Arizona's rotation might be the best in the National League. ... The lineup is filled with many young players who struggled last season but should improve with experience.
Weaknesses: Arizona's lineup ranked last in the NL in batting with a .250 team average, and the Diamondbacks do not have a prototypical leadoff or clean-up hitter. There is also not a whole lot of power in the lineup, with just two players hitting at least 20 home runs. ... The Diamondbacks traded baseball's saves leader from a season ago, Valverde, to Houston and will need someone to step up and replace him in 2008. ... Losing a workhorse like Hernandez also may hurt if Johnson cannot go more than 56 innings again this season.
Rotation Outlook: The 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner, Webb had another stellar season in 2007. The righthander tossed three straight shutouts last season as a part of 42 consecutive scoreless innings - the fifth-longest streak in baseball history. ... Haren, who was acquired in a trade from Oakland, will bolster a very solid rotation that needs the 44-year-old Johnson to make more than 10 starts. If he can, it will take some pressure off Davis and Owings, who are strong options to have as fourth and fifth starters. The righthanded Owings also was impressive at the plate last season, batting .333 with four home runs in 60 at-bats.
Bullpen Situation: : Lyon, who has just 25 career saves, never has been the closer for a full season during his six-year career. He did pitch well last year in the middle innings and will be pushed by Tony Pena and Qualls, who could each get save opportunities as well. ... Lefthander Doug Slaten and righthander Brandon Medders also were solid in 2007, so if Lyon can handle the closer's job, the rest of the bullpen should be fairly reliable in protecting leads again this season.
Projected Finish: First in NL West
COLORADO ROCKIES
Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: CLINT HURDLE
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 97-77 (0.557), +27.4 ML Units (#1 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 84-82-8
StatFox Power Rating: : 127 (#2 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 84 (-115)/Under 84 (-115)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 54-33 (+15.45 ML Units)
Road Games: 43-44 (+11.9 ML Units)
vs. Division: 47-30 (+22.4 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 10-12 (+1.75 ML Units)
Day Games: 28-22 (+8.6 ML Units)
Night Games: 69-55 (+18.75 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 23-24 (-2.7 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 74-53 (+30.05 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 5.28 (#5 of 30), Allowed - 4.65 (#13 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): +0.63 (#4 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.280 (#5 of 30), Opponent - 0.266 (#12 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 171 (#13 of 30), Opponent - 164 (#14 of 30)Arrivals: 2B Marcus Giles, RHPs Josh Towers, Kip Wells and Luis Vizcaino, OF Scott Podsednik
Departures: 2B Kazuo Matsui, RHPs Josh Fogg and LaTroy Hawkins, LHP Jeremy Affeldt
Projected Starters:
C - Yorvit Torrealba (.255/8/47)
1B - Todd Helton (.320/17/91)
2B - Jayson Nix (.292/11/58 in Class AAA)
SS - Troy Tulowitzki (.291/24/99)
3B - Garrett Atkins (.301/25/101)
LF - Matt Holliday (.340/36/137)
CF - Willy Taveras (.320/2/24)
RF - Brad Hawpe (.291/29/116)Projected Rotation:
LHP - Jeff Francis (17-9, 4.22)
RHP - Aaron Cook (8-7, 4.12)
RHP - Ubaldo Jimenez (4-4, 4.28)
RHP - Jason Hirsh (5-7, 4.81)
LHP - Franklin Morales (3-2, 3.43)Projected Closer:
RHP - Manny Corpas (4-2, 2.08, 19 saves)Strengths: Despite the fact that none of the starters won a Gold Glove Award, the Rockies were easily the best defensive team in baseball, committing just 68 errors. ... Colorado's offense was first in the National League in runs scored and batting average, and the lineup - led by Holliday - should again be one
Weaknesses: Colorado was just 76-72 before a 14-1 finish - including the Wild Card tiebreaker - vaulted them into the playoffs. ... By sweeping through the first two rounds of the postseason, the Rockies made their first World Series appearance, and any expectations to repeat would be unreasonable. ... The Rockies' rotation is less than spectacular, and the NL West may be the best division in baseball from top to bottom.
Rotation Outlook: Francis recorded career highs in wins, strikeouts (165) and innings pitched (215), becoming the ace Colorado needed him to be. ... Cook missed two months with a strained muscle in his side last season but also should be reliable. However, after the top two, there are a lot of question marks. Jimenez and Morales played key roles down the stretch in their first two seasons in the majors, but can they hold up over a full season? And will opposing teams have better success now that they have seen them pitch? ... Another youngster, Hirsch pitched well in spots but also has never gone a full season, suffering a fractured fibula that sidelined him for the final two months of the 2007 campaign. ... Towers, Mark Redman and Wells will provide depth, but none of the three can be counted on over a full season.
Bullpen Situation: : Corpas was dominant as the closer after taking over for All-Star Brian Fuentes in the middle of the season and should assume that role again in 2008. ... Fuentes still had a solid season and should continue to pitch in the setup role, but he may be the only reliable lefthander the Rockies have. ... The key will be Vizcaino, who must bounce back from an inconsistent season with the New York Yankees last year and become a go-to guy in the middle innings. If he can't, Matt Herges, Taylor Buchholz or Ryan Speier will have to pitch in the late innings - and be successful - in order to bridge the gap to Fuentes and Corpas.
Projected Finish: Third in NL West
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: JOE TORRE
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 82-80 (0.506), +-6.5 ML Units (#16 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 87-72-3
StatFox Power Rating: : 97 (#18 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 87 (-115)/Under 87 (-115)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 43-38 (-4 ML Units)
Road Games: 39-42 (-2.5 ML Units)
vs. Division: 34-38 (-8.9 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 5-10 (-5.65 ML Units)
Day Games: 25-22 (+2.2 ML Units)
Night Games: 57-58 (-8.7 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 25-21 (+1.45 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 57-59 (-7.95 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 4.54 (#21 of 30), Allowed - 4.49 (#8 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): +0.05 (#14 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.275 (#8 of 30), Opponent - 0.261 (#8 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 129 (#26 of 30), Opponent - 146 (#4 of 30)Arrivals: Manager Joe Torre, CF Andruw Jones, RHPs Hiroki Kuroda, Chan Ho Park and Tanyon Sturtze, LHP Mike Myers
Departures: Manager Grady Little, OF Luis Gonzalez, LHPs Randy Wolf and Mark Hendrickson
Projected Starters:
C - Russell Martin (.293/19/87)
1B - James Loney (.331/15/67)
2B - Jeff Kent (.302/20/79)
SS - Rafael Furcal (.270/6/47)
3B - Nomar Garciaparra (.283/7/59)
LF - Juan Pierre (.293/0/41)
CF - Andruw Jones (.222/26/94)
RF - Matt Kemp (.342/10/42)Projected Rotation:
RHP - Brad Penny (16-4, 3.03)
RHP - Derek Lowe (12-14, 3.88)
RHP - Chad Billingsley (12-5, 3.31)
RHP - Hiroki Kuroda (12-8, 3.56 in Japan)
RHP - Esteban Loaiza (1-4, 8.34)Projected Closer:
RHP - Takashi Saito (2-1, 1.40, 39 saves)Strengths: Balance is a big strength for the Dodgers in 2008. There is not one area in which Los Angeles is exceptional, but it does not have any glaring weaknesses either. ... The addition of Jones gives the team a home-run threat - if he can return to form - which will help a team that was ranked in the bottom 10 in runs scored last season. ... The Dodgers hit .275 as a team and were fifth in the majors in stolen bases, led by Pierre. ... Los Angeles has plenty of young talent on the bench, such as Andy LaRoche - who will miss the first two months with a torn ligament in his right thumb - and Andre Ethier. ... Torre also should be able to mix the youngsters and veterans better than Little did last season. ... The Dodgers have one of the better closers in the league in Saito, and the top of their rotation - when healthy - can match up with almost any team in the National League.
Weaknesses: Los Angeles committed 114 errors last season and ranked second-to-last in home runs. If Jones cannot fill that power need, Los Angeles could struggle to score runs again. However, youngsters such as Loney and Kemp could improve on their numbers over the course of a full season. ... The rotation is not very deep past its top five, with Jason Schmidt posing as the sixth starter when and if he gets healthy. So if anyone misses significant time, the Dodgers may need a pitcher from the farm system to step up.
Rotation Outlook: Penny enjoyed the best season of his career in 2007. Along with Lowe and Billingsley, he helped give the Dodgers three starters with sub-4.00 ERAs. ... The back end of the rotation has question marks. It's anyone's guess as to what Loaiza will give the team, and it is not known when Schmidt, who had his 2007 season cut short due to shoulder surgery, will be able to pitch. ... Japanese rookie Kuroda is expected to be a very solid addition the group. tremendous season, and Jonathan Broxton also was excellent as the team's setup man.
Bullpen Situation: : The 38-year-old Saito is coming off a tremendous season, and Jonathan Broxton also was excellent as the team's setup man. ... The Dodgers struggled to find a consistent long reliever last season. ... Former Yankee Scott Proctor, who came over toward the end of the campaign, could help bridge the gap to Broxton and Saito, as Torre used him extensively during their time together in New York. ... The bullpen overall is average, but if Saito and Broxton produce like they did last season, Los Angeles will not have to worry about keeping leads late in games.
Projected Finish: Second in NL West
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: BUD BLACK
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 89-74 (0.546), +-0.9 ML Units (#12 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 80-76-7
StatFox Power Rating: : 108 (#8 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 84 (-115)/Under 84 (-115)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 47-34 (-1.5 ML Units)
Road Games: 42-40 (+0.6 ML Units)
vs. Division: 40-33 (+1.1 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 6-9 (-4.7 ML Units)
Day Games: 23-19 (+0.9 ML Units)
Night Games: 66-55 (-1.8 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 29-22 (+3.5 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 60-52 (-4.4 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 4.55 (#20 of 30), Allowed - 4.09 (#2 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): +0.46 (#8 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.251 (#28 of 30), Opponent - 0.250 (#3 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 171 (#15 of 30), Opponent - 119 (#1 of 30)Arrivals: OF Jim Edmonds, 2B Tadahito Iguchi, LHP Randy Wolf, RHP Mark Prior, 1B Tony Clark
Departures: OFs Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley, 2Bs Marcus Giles and Geoff Blum, RHP Doug Brocail
Projected Starters:
C - Josh Bard (.285/5/51)
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (.282/30/100)
2B - Tadahito Iguchi (.267/9/43)
SS - Khalil Greene (.254/27/97)
3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff (.275/18/74)
LF - Scott Hairston (.243/11/36)
CF - Jim Edmonds (.252/12/53)
RF - Brian Giles (.271/13/51)Projected Rotation:
RHP - Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54)
RHP - Chris Young (9-8, 3.12)
RHP - Greg Maddux (14-11, 4.14)
LHP - Randy Wolf (9-6, 4.73)
RHP - Justin Germano (7-10, 4.46)Projected Closer:
RHP - Trevor Hoffman (4-5, 2.98, 42 saves)Strengths: Pitching easily is this team's biggest strength. Peavy is the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, and the Padres had the best team ERA in all of baseball at 3.70 - which included a league-best 20 shutouts. ... Despite a few blown saves down the stretch, Hoffman still is one of the league's elite closers. ... Gonzalez also is a budding star at first base.
Weaknesses: The Padres were next-to-last in the National League in team batting average at .251 and still do not have a dominant hitter to scare opposing pitchers. ... San Diego is slow all over the field, ranking last in the NL in stolen bases. ... The Padres need more stability out of there everyday lineup, as only three current players played at least 140 games last season. ... Unless Edmonds stays healthy and gives San Diego some sort of production in center field, the Padres could really miss Cameron, who was their only base-stealer (18) and one of three 20-home run hitters in 2007.
Rotation Outlook: The rotation is strong at the top as Peavy is one of the best pitchers in the National League. Young went 0-5 over his last 11 starts since straining an abdominal muscle on July 24, but the 6-10 righthander led the majors with a 1.82 ERA over his first 19 appearances. If he is healthy alongside No. 3 Maddux, San Diego should be in good shape. ... Wolf and Germano are solid options as fourth and fifth starters, respectively, if healthy. If Mark Prior - who is not expected to be ready until May - can give them anything, San Diego could get an added boost.
Bullpen Situation: : The all-time saves leader, Hoffman is one of the best around. But he tied a career high with seven blown saves, including a crucial one in the NL Wild Card tiebreaker against Colorado last season. ... As a whole, the bullpen is strong. Heath Bell, Cla Meredith and Kevin Cameron all had sub-3.50 ERAs in 2007. ... The only thing lacking may be a lefthander, but youngsters Justin Hampson and Joe Thatcher pitched well in limited innings last season.
Projected Finish: Fourth in NL West
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Manager: BRUCE BOCHY
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 71-91 (0.438), +-21 ML Units (#30 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 69-83-10
StatFox Power Rating: : 92 (#21 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 71 (-115)/Under 71 (-115)
2007 Situational Records:
Home Games: 39-42 (-10.85 ML Units)
Road Games: 32-49 (-10.1 ML Units)
vs. Division: 28-44 (-17.6 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 5-10 (-4.7 ML Units)
Day Games: 19-31 (-13.25 ML Units)
Night Games: 52-60 (-7.7 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 21-26 (-5.05 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 50-65 (-15.9 ML Units)Key 2007 Team Stats:
Runs: Scored - 4.22 (#29 of 30), Allowed - 4.44 (#6 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.22 (#20 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.254 (#27 of 30), Opponent - 0.261 (#7 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 131 (#25 of 30), Opponent - 133 (#2 of 30)Arrivals: OF Aaron Rowand, RHPs Victor Santos and Keiichi Yabu
Departures: OF Barry Bonds, 3B Pedro Feliz, 1B Ryan Klesko
Projected Starters:
C - Bengie Molina (.276/19/81)
1B - Dan Ortmeier (.287/6/16)
2B - Ray Durham (.218/11/71)
SS - Omar Vizquel (.246/4/51)
3B - Rich Aurilia (.252/5/33)
LF - Dave Roberts (.260/2/23)
CF - Aaron Rowand (.309/27/89)
RF - Randy Winn (.300/14/65)Projected Rotation:
LHP - Barry Zito (11-13, 4.53)
RHP - Matt Cain (7-16, 3.65)
LHP - Noah Lowry (14-8, 3.92)
RHP - Tim Lincecum (7-5, 4.00)
RHP - Kevin Correia (4-7, 3.45)Projected Closer:
RHP - Brian Wilson (1-2, 2.28, 6 saves)Strengths: The strength of this team is really the youth in its starting pitching. Cain and Lincecum are both 23 years old and should continue to develop into top-tier starters. Lowry led the team in wins last season and is only 27. ... The defense was also very solid last year, committing just 88 errors - the third-fewest in the National League. ... Adding the Gold Glove winner Rowand will help defensively and also make up for some of the lost production from Bonds. The all-time home run king's absence will be welcomed by many of the players, who will not have to deal with Bonds' distractions for the first time in years.
Weaknesses: The Giants were second-to-last in baseball in runs scored and do not figure to be much better this season. Rowand's 27 home runs in 2007 were a career high, but the former Philadelphia Phillie most likely will not duplicate that power this year now that he no longer is playing in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. ... The departure of Bonds does leave a gaping hole in the middle of the order as the Giants now have just one player in their lineup who hit 20 or more home runs last season. ... San Francisco's big signing last offseason, Zito was a major disappointment. The lefthander had the first losing season of his eight-year career and struck out just 131 batters in 196 2/3 innings.
Rotation Outlook: San Francisco needs Zito to bounce back as he did not pan out the way the team had hoped in his first season of a seven-year deal. ... Cain, Lowry and Lincecum all provided solid innings in spots but suffered due to the lack of offense. Since the Giants do not figure to play a major factor in this season's pennant race, the trio - which does have a bright future - might be a little inconsistent this year. ... Correia and Jonathan Sanchez will battle for the fifth spot, and both could see their share of starts depending on how they pitch. the final month of the season and was named the closer to start the season.
Bullpen Situation: : Wilson converted six of his seven chances in the final month of the season and was named the closer to start the 2008 campaign by manager Bruce Bochy. If the 25-year-old should falter, Brad Hennessey may be pushed into the closer's role, where he recorded 19 saves last year. ... Tyler Walker was great in limited innings last season as he returned from "Tommy John" surgery, and Vinnie Chulk had the best season of his career, posting a 3.57 ERA in 53 innings pitched. However, lefthanders Steve Kline and Jack Taschner must improve on below-average years to give the Giants more options in the middle innings.
Projected Finish: Fifth in NL West
* Divisional Previews were compiled by Steve Makinen & Doug Upstone with contributions from PA Sports Ticker.
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