By:
Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 4/17/2008 at 6:19:00 PM
In Week 8 of Arena Football action, several different clubs are looking to make statements and move up in the standings. Georgia trails Orlando and New Orleans by two games in the Southern Division and will try to gain ground hosting the Predators. San Jose has lost three of four and will try to get back on winning beam at Utah. New York probably won’t win powerful Eastern Division; however they can continue to take positive steps towards making the playoffs. These plus four other AFL wagering opportunities are available this weekend.
Friday April 18
New York at Tampa Bay
New York got another exceptional performance from quarterback Aaron Garcia, who was 27-of-37 for 298 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions in 66-42 home win over Columbus. That makes it two wins in a row for New York, who also covered all three home games. The Dragons travel south to face slumping Tampa Bay, who has lost four straight.
The last loss to Arizona 63-62, was the most painful for the Storm, who was 13-point home favorites. Tampa Bay blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead, thanks to two special teams’ miscues that set up Arizona to win. The Storm is now 1-4 ATS this season as favorites. Coach Marcum will try to prepare his team to end this skid that has seen them not cover since Week Two, with Tampa 13-4 ATS after a loss by six or less points.
Sportsbook.com has Tampa as 6.5-point favorites with total of 104.5. The Storm is 10-0 ATS in home games after gaining 8 or more yards a play in their previous game.
StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay by 9
StatFox Edge – New York covers
San Jose at Utah
This is about as painful as it gets for any team, let alone one that is the defending Arena Bowl champs. San Jose couldn’t hold onto 26-point first half lead against Philadelphia, losing 58-57, when they couldn’t stop Soul on two-point conversion with 10 seconds left in the game. The SaberCats next stop is Utah, where they are 9-1 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 52 or more points a game.
As expected Utah had no problems scoring last week in piling up 62 points; however the utter lack of defense is appalling, surrendering 79 points, further distancing themselves as the AFL’s worst stop group. The Blaze is still winless in 2008 and are 1-9 ATS after two straight games where 116 total points or more were scored over the last two seasons. Utah has lost three straight to San Jose by 19 PPG.
San Jose is 6-point road favorite and is 8-0 ATS versus division opponents over the last two seasons.
StatFox Power Line – San Jose by 11
StatFox Edge – San Jose covers
New Orleans at Arizona
If it weren’t true, it would just be considered absurd, yet Arizona’s big road upset of Tampa Bay has propelled the Rattlers into first place in the Western Division. Arizona was the first team to win off a bye this year and just the second to cover the spread this season. The Rattlers will need another pure performance from QB Lang Campbell, who spearheaded offense that committed no turnovers. Arizona comes in 16-5 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or bettor per game.
New Orleans found out why Dallas has yet to lose and had five game winning streak snapped. The loss dropped the VooDoo into first place tie in the Southern Division. New Orleans will be a road favorite and has won and covered both times this season in that role. The VooDoo is 0-6 ATS on the road versus poor defensive teams allowing 6.25 or more yards per play.
The VooDoo is 5.5-point favorite with total of 109. New Orleans is 10-0 OVER in games where both teams score 48 or more points over the last two seasons.
StatFox Power Line – New Orleans by 8
StatFox Edge – OVER
Saturday April 19
Colorado at Kansas City
Is Colorado starting to come together? After opening the season with 1-3 start, the Crush has won two consecutive games. QB John Dutton was on fire, completing 33-of-48 for 314 yards in win at Cleveland. With another win, this time in Kansas City, the Crush could put them selves right into position to be an elite American Conference team with a big second half. The Crush is 21-11 ATS off one or more wins under coach Mike Dailey.
Kansas City is off tough 49-42 loss as 11-point home dogs Monday night against Chicago and will have three fewer days to prepare than a more rested Colorado crew. The Brigade will need a large defensive effort, as Crush offense is finding itself, having scored 136 points in last two contests. Kansas City has not beaten Colorado in four prior meetings, but has covered twice.
Kansas City has gone from a 4.5 to 2.5-point home dog and is 8-1 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.
StatFox Power Line – Kansas City by 1
StatFox Edge – Colorado covers
Orlando at Georgia
Orlando’s fourth ranked scoring offense was on full display against Grand Rapids as they lit up the Rampage 75-56 as three-point favorites. That was the Predators fifth win in a row (4-0-1 ATS) and QB Shane Stafford was near perfect 14 for 16, being pulled after Orlando built 33-point lead. Having Stafford ready is important, in always meaningful Georgia conflict. Downside for Orlando is they don’t always respond after a big victory, being 1-8 ATS after a win by 17 or more points over the last three seasons.
Georgia is gathering momentum, having won three of four (2-2 ATS) and has minimized turnovers, with only one each the last four contests. Arena games are always passing affairs and this one will feature the number two (Georgia) and number three pass offenses. The Force is 16-6 ATS after gaining seven or more yards a play in two consecutive games. Despite the potential fireworks, these two have played UNDER 12 of 16 meetings.
Georgia has gone from Pick to 1.5-point favorite with total of 111. The Predators are 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last two years.
StatFox Power Line – Georgia by 7
StatFox Edge – UNDER
Cleveland at Los Angeles
Two Raymond Philyaw interceptions inside opponent’s 15-yard line sealed Cleveland’s fate against Colorado in 69-66 nail-biter. The Gladiators will have to quickly put that disappointment behind them, preparing for trip to L.A. to face Avengers. Cleveland has a tough two game trip playing on each coast the next two weeks.
Los Angeles ended four game losing streak defeating uninspired Utah and will attempt to square up season record at .500 with another win. Backup quarterback Tim Hicks was the catalyst for L.A., scoring 79 points. Hicks has put together two solid efforts, unfortunately the Avengers are just 9-23 ATS after scoring 53 points or more in two straight outings. Los Angeles has won and covered three in a row against what was Las Vegas franchise previously.
Cleveland’s a three-point underdog and is in system that reads to Play Against any team like Los Angeles off a win versus a division rival, in weeks 5 through 9. This quality system is 40-18, 69 percent the last five seasons.
StatFox Power Line – Los Angeles by 11
StatFox Edge – L.A. covers
Sunday April 20
Grand Rapids at Chicago
The Rampage defense had its second bad effort (or lack there of) in back-to-back games, surrendering 75 points to Orlando, after New York hung 63 on them the previous week. Only Utah allows more points in the league and Grand Rapids will have a real challenge facing Chicago, being 0-6 ATS against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers a game on the season.
This is Chicago’s only home game in a month, with two more roadies still to come. The Rush is deep and talented, taking down inferior teams by well over 20 points per game. They have been especially potent against opposing teams at home, with 10-2 ATS record as favorites the last two seasons.
Chicago is 8-1 ATS off a road win and a large 15.5-point favorite, with total of 111.5. Watch for the total in this matchup, as these division rivals has played UNDER six straight times in the Windy City.
StatFox Power Line – Chicago by 24
StatFox Edge – UNDER
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