By:
Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 4/24/2008 at 2:45:00 PM
The biggest story of this week in Arena Football is the Monday matchup of division rivals and unbeaten Dallas and Philadelphia. However, before that contest is played, quality clubs like Orlando, New Orleans and Chicago all believe when the time comes, they will be able to lineup and go toe-to-toe with the powerhouses of the AFL. Each of the three teams is favored in a different situation, providing Arena bettors interesting opportunities.
Friday April 25
Kansas City at Grand Rapids
Kansas City (1-6, 5-2 ATS) registered first win of the year in holding off Colorado as two-point home underdogs 55-52. Rookie quarterback D. Bryant played well in his third start, finishing 16 of 28 for 235 yards and threw four touchdowns to only one interception. The Brigade defense finally stepped up, holding Colorado to 203 total yards. Kansas City has now covered four in a row and is 5-2 ATS on the season.
Grand Rapids (2-5, 4-3 ATS) had Central Division leader Chicago down four with five minutes to play, but just couldn’t finish and lost to the Rush 55-52 as 15-point underdogs. The Rampage is 1-3 with two covers at home and will be trying to end three game losing streak. Grand Rapids should a short home favorite, looking for a higher scoring affair. The Rampage is 14-5 ATS when both squads score 48 or more points.
Grand Rapids is a five-point favorite at Bookmaker.com and is 9-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
StatFox Power Line – Grand Rapids by 1
StatFox Edge – Kansas City covers
Utah at New Orleans
Utah is still winless at 0-8 (1-6-1 ATS) and even the offense is starting to suffer. The Blaze totaled just 40 points, their lowest number 26 games and they are averaging a rather ordinary 55.2 PPG. The offense committed four turnovers, leading to the skimpy showing. With only a 7-17 ATS record the last two seasons, a trip to face the AFL’s number three scoring defense, could extend the misery.
New Orleans (6-2 SU & ATS) offense and defense were dominant in the desert, winning by 24 points as 6.5-point road favorites and limiting Arizona to 36 points. The VooDoo forced five turnovers, raising total to 26 surpassing last year’s season total of 21. New Orleans returns home, where they are 4-0 SU and ATS, mauling opponents by 22.5 PPG. VooDoo coach Neu’s teams are 3-12 ATS in home games in the second half of the season.
Oddsmakers have Utah catching 13-points and they are 1-10 ATS after allowing 58 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.
StatFox Power Line – New Orleans by 18
StatFox Edge – New Orleans covers
Chicago at Colorado
Chicago (6-2, 4-4 ATS) almost got caught playing with fire, having to come from behind to beat Grand Rapids by three points, after whipping by 29 in Michigan. A similar effort at Colorado (3-4, 2-5 ATS) could have Chicago rushing to defeat at Colorado. The Rush is 4-3 SU and ATS when in Denver and are 8-1 ATS off a Central Division game over the last two seasons.
After consecutive wins, the Crush failed to make it three in a row. Colorado QB John Dutton misses WR Damian Harrell, who now plays for Chicago and the defense has had just one outing where they forced more than two turnovers. Coach Mike Daily needs big effort from his troops and is 6-0 ATS revenging a blowout loss versus opponent of 24 points or more, which happen in Chi-town in 70-35 wipeout.
Chicago is a 6.5-point choice and is 13-4 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.
StatFox Power Line – Chicago by 8
StatFox Edge – Colorado covers
Georgia at Arizona
Georgia suffered a heart-breaking loss against Orlando, losing with only five seconds left 65-62. Saddled with 3-4 (2-5 ATS) mark, the Force will need extended winning streak just to work back into taxing National Conference playoff picture. Georgia heads west to Arizona, being 8-1 ATS after a loss by six or less points over the last three seasons.
The Rattlers were rattled right from the start, falling behind to New Orleans 17-0, making enough mistakes you would have thought Cardinals players were in the game. Arizona (3-4 SU & ATS) fell out of first place and they will have to put this travesty behind them swiftly. Possibly, things could be going the Rattlers way since they are 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.
The Total is noteworthy, since when the number is between 100 and 109.5 points and any team plays a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) in this point range, the OVER is fantastic 25-2, 92.6 percent the last three years.
StatFox Power Line – Georgia by 11
StatFox Edge – OVER
Saturday April 26
The Cleveland (4-3, 3-2-2 ATS) offense was clicking on all cylinders, scoring a season high 83 points at Los Angeles. The Gladiators signal caller Raymond Philyaw, proved why everyone should love Raymond finishing 30-of-39 for 411 yards and nine touchdowns. That ended Cleveland’s three game losing streak, and will seek another win on the other coast against New York (5-3 ATS).
The Dragons evened their record at 4-4 with impressive 19-point victory at Tampa Bay as 6.5-point underdogs. New York has scratched in the win column three times in a row and has covered four straight. The Dragons offense could hardly been more effective, scoring on every single possession. New York is 3-1 and perfect 4-0 ATS preparing for Gladiators and coach Weylan Harding Dragons clubs are 9-1 ATS vs. teams scoring 52 or more points a game.
New York’s favored by 4.5-points and fits system that says Play On home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after playing their last game on the road, in April games. This system is 22-6, 81.2 percent the last decade.
StatFox Power Line – New York by 12
StatFox Edge – New York covers
Tampa Bay at Orlando
This used to be one of the best rivalry’s in the AFL; however recent results have appearing more one-sided. Tampa Bay (2-5) has dropped five in a row (0-5 ATS), while Southern Division rival Orlando (6-2, 5-2-1 ATS) has won six straight and is 5-0-1 ATS. The Storm’s defense is ranked 13th in points allowed at 58.9 and in stupefying fashion has not forced a turnover since losing streak began. This explains 1-6 ATS record after long history of success.
The Predators have won five games by eight or fewer points since losing two contests of the 2008 season. QB Shane Stafford makes all the big plays when needed and the defense seems to play to the pace of any given game and comes thru in the clutch. Orlando has won and covered the last four “War on I-4” matchups and is 13-3 ATS in home games in April games.
Orlando is only a 5.5-point home fave; however the Total is the attention-getter at 116.5. When a team like Orlando is off an upset win as an underdog, playing division rival and the total is greater than 110, play the UNDER, as the record in scintillating 25-2.
StatFox Power Line – Orlando by 10
StatFox Edge – UNDER
Los Angeles at San Jose
San Jose (4-4, 3-5 ATS) looked more like the defending Arena Bowl champs at unbalanced Utah, win winning 61-40. The SaberCats defense was especially impressive and they will try to win another Western Division encounter hosting Los Angeles (3-5 SU & ATS). Mark Grieb started to look like his old self; completing 21 of his 33 pass attempts for 311 yards and 5 TDs. San Jose will try to improve to 10-0 ATS in division.
L.A. crowds are known for being fashionably late, in this case the Avengers defense never bothered to show up, being ripped for 83 points. Of course the offense bumbling to four or more turnovers again for the fourth time in five games only made matter worse. The Avengers are sorry 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 360 or more total yards. L.A. is 2-6 at San Jose with 4-4 spread mark.
The SaberCats are 12.5-point pick and are perfect 13-0 ATS after covering the spread in two out of their last three games the last two years.
StatFox Power Line – San Jose by 19
StatFox Edge – San Jose covers
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