By:
Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 5/7/2008 at 4:37:00 PM
This week, a number of Arena Football League teams will attempt to build on winning momentum from a week ago, heading towards playoff chase. New York has won four straight and has barely picked up any ground on Philadelphia and Dallas in the Eastern Division. The Desperadoes can regain sole possession of first place for a couple of days, before the Soul plays on Monday, when they host Grand Rapids. Cleveland will go after another home dog upset taking on Orlando and first place is on the line in the desert, when San Jose takes on Arizona.
Friday May 9
Orlando at Cleveland
Cleveland (5-4, 4-3-2 ATS) took full advantage of previously unbeaten Philadelphia, off sky-high win against Dallas, playing on the road on short notice to pull 67-55 upset as 10-point underdogs. This was the Gladiators first home win since Week two and they’ll try and improve upon the league’s second best home scoring offense, averaging 65 points a game.
Orlando (7-3 SU & ATS) is tied for first place in the Southern Division with New Orleans and will seek to build on imposing 61-35 win over defending Arena Bowl champions San Jose. The Predators offense is humming and quarterback Shane Stafford is completing better than 70 percent of his passes on the road. Orlando is 14-3 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after eight or more games on the season.
Sportsbook.com has Orlando as three point road favorites with total of 115.5. A Total play could be special here. Play Under on any team when the total is greater than or equal to 100, after a team like Cleveland has gone over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51 and 60 percent of their games on the season. This system is 24-3 ATS, 88.9 percent, including 9-0 ATS the last three years.
StatFox Power Line – Orlando by 9
StatFox Edge – Under
San Jose at Arizona
First place is on the line in the Western Division, when San Jose (5-5, 4-6 ATS) travels to Arizona (4-5 SU & ATS). This year has not gone anything like the SaberCats expected. Last season they were among the top offensive machines in the AFL, after 10 games, they are 10th in points scored at 54.2 PPG. After being drubbed in Orlando, San Jose will attempt set the AFL record for most consecutive wins against division opponents with a 15-game winning streak dating back to Week 2 of 2006.
Arizona has been alternating wins and losses the last seven weeks, meaning this could be a good week for the underdog Rattlers. Arizona’s defense has surrendered 59 or more points the last five games. This has led to a pair of Over’s by the Rattlers and they are 5-1 ATS in next contest.
Arizona can take over first place in the division with a victory. They are 6.5-point home underdogs and have to overcome San Jose being 14-0 ATS after covering the spread in two of last three games over the last two seasons.
StatFox Power Line – San Jose by 9
StatFox Edge – San Jose covers
Saturday May 10
Grand Rapids at Dallas
Grand Rapids (3-6, 5-4 ATS) scored a season low 28 points at Colorado and will try to recover against the league’s best scoring defense, at Dallas. The Rampage has had wild swings of offensive activity, scoring 52 or more points six times and 35 or less on three occasions. With the total listed at 99.5, this doesn’t bode well for Grand Rapids who needs points to be competitive, with 13-27 ATS record when the total is between 90 and 99.5 points.
Dallas (8-1, 5-4 ATS) rebounded from initial loss of the season to Philadelphia, defeating Columbus on the road 48-45. Offense continues to be dilemma for the Desperadoes, scoring only 44.4 PPG the last five contests. Frequently overvalued in the past and with scoring woes this season, Dallas is 6-17 ATS in home games off a road win.
Oddsmakers have positioned the Desperadoes as 11-point home choice and they are 4-13 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points.
StatFox Power Line – Dallas by 11
StatFox Edge – Dallas covers
New York at Los Angeles
With the Mets having just left town, the New York Dragons set up another matchup of East vs West, playing at Los Angeles. New York (5-4, 6-3 ATS) is looking for first five game winning streak since 2000 campaign. Quarterback Aaron Garcia and his teammates have been flawless, having not committed a turnover in three straight games. Coach Harding’s squad is 21-11 ATS in non-conference action.
Los Angeles (4-6, 6-4 ATS) ended two game losing streak against Arizona last week 66-59 and could be tied for second place in the West Division with a win. Focus has oft times been an issue for the Avengers, with 6-17 ATS off in two straight division games.
L.A. is four point underdog and 9-19 ATS in this role over the last three seasons. New York also fits a celebrated system that reads, Play On road favorites after going Under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This exceptional system is 17-4 ATS, 80.9 percent the last five seasons.
StatFox Power Line – New York by 5
StatFox Edge – New York covers
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