By:
Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 5/27/2008 at 12:12:00 PM
If all these blowouts in the NBA Conference Finals seem unusual, they are not. With San Antonio’s Game Three laugher over Los Angeles and last night’s Detroit pull away from Boston to even the series, this makes it four of seven games which have been decided by 10 or more points. Last year in the conference finals, four of 11 contests qualified under the same criteria and in 2006, exactly half the games (6 of 12) played, fell into this situation. Does it really mean anything, other than making for more flipping of channels?
In the last four years in the conference finals, the team that lost by double digits has come back to win and cover eight of next 12 encounters. Though it won’t apply to tonight’s contest, it is noteworthy the team that rebounded off a 10 or more point loss, to win by more then 10 points themselves in next outing, is 3-0 SU and ATS if next contest is to win the series. It was really no surprise San Antonio won so decisively in Game three. The Spurs have won nine straight home contests (6-2-1 ATS) and a total of 13 playoff games in a row at the AT&T Center.
Evidently sleeping in one’s own bed is better than being under doctor’s care as reports surfaced Manu Ginobili would have sat out the second game of the series had not the Spurs blown series opener. Instead, on the same amount of rest he’s had lately, he looked like the same old Ginobili, totaling 30 points, with no lingering traces of ankle injury. Tim Duncan was Mr. Fundamental, and Tony Parker so thoroughly dominated Derek Fisher, the Lakers point guard could have retired after the game and no one L.A. would have quarreled.
Much of this is existential to the team doing the pounding. If anything it helps the club absorbing the punishment. Pau Gasol said it’s always hard to get shut eye after a tough loss and Derek Fisher said he slept “decent enough.”
Los Angeles coach Phil Jackson wasn’t surprised. “I like players to get their rest, there’s no doubt,” Jackson said Monday. “But any time you have a game of that importance and you don’t play well, you’re upset. It’s bothersome.” Like most, the Lakers will bounce back from bad efforts and are 8-3-1 ATS after allowing teams to break the century mark against them.
San Antonio will attempt to even the series and raise record at home to 13-3 ATS versus good foul drawing teams, who shoot 27 or more free throws a game. The Spurs are also 17-4-2 against the spread as playoff favorites.
Bookmaker.com has San Antonio as four-point favorites with 192. Los Angeles is 9-2 ATS when an underdog of less than five points and the Spurs are 7-3-1 versus the oddsmakers number in the postseason, when favored by 4.5 or less points. All three games in this series have gone Under and the Spurs are on 7-0 UNDER roll. L.A. is 16-5 OVER after losing, including both games in the playoffs.
Derek Fisher has this perspective about losing last contest. I think you hold on to the fact that it’s very frustrating and very disappointing in the sense that we couldn’t give ourselves a chance to win the game,” Fisher said. “So you hold on to some of that frustration, some of that resentment that you have for the opponent. You keep that.
“But you let go of the fact that you lost a game. … You get past that part of it and you keep your focus on the things that will motivate you and help you to win the next game.”
The series resumes at 9 Eastern on TNT.
StatFox Power Line- San Antonio by 1
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