By:
Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 5/28/2008 at 1:45:00 PM
It was a wild weekend of Arena League football in Week 13, as Chicago, Philadelphia and New York were all upset. Looking ahead, Dallas at Cleveland sets up to be an outstanding matchup on Saturday, as does Southern Division rivals Tampa Bay, traveling north to Georgia. Off three straight losses, New Orleans VooDoo needs to put the hex on opposition and improve on 5-1 home record at home. Review the StatFox Edge picks, they have been very good all season.
Friday May 30
Columbus at New Orleans
Three weeks ago, New Orleans (7-5 SU & ATS) was in first place in the competitive Southern Division. Unless they can avoid a fourth straight loss, there is the real possibility the VooDoo could fall into last place in the division. What has changed for New Orleans, the offense has been almost non-existent, averaging a mere 35 points game the last three weeks. May has proven to once again be a bad month for the VooDoo, with 0-6 ATS record the last two seasons, being outscored by almost 17 points an outing.
Having Columbus (3-9, 6-4-2 ATS) come south might be the tonic New Orleans could use. The Destroyers offense is the weakest in the league at 46.7 PPG. How they have managed to stay in so many contests, losing just four games against the spread is the defense, which is seventh in points allowed at 53.1 PPG. The turnover situation for the Destroyers is paradox, going each way. Columbus is competitive because they have only has two games with more than two turnovers. Coincidently, the defense has only forced more than two turnovers twice.
Sportsbook.com has New Orleans as 7.5-point home favorites with Total of 94.5, in spite of the Voodoo having 6-16 ATS record vs. pass defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse after eight or more games. Columbus offsets that trend by being 1-9 ATS after allowing seven or more yards a play in two consecutive contests, losing by 17 PPG.
StatFox Power Line – New Orleans by 10
StatFox Edge – New Orleans covers
Saturday May 31
Dallas at Cleveland
Cleveland (7-5, 6-4-2 ATS) has closed the gap in the Eastern Division standings, having won four of last six contests and can further reduce the margin, with an upset of Dallas (10-2, 6-6 ATS) at home. The Gladiators are back home off a two game road trip, where they are 4-1 and 3-1-1 ATS. Cleveland quarterback Raymond Philyaw leads the league’s most prolific offense at home, scoring 64.4 PPG. The Gladiators are tied for fourth place in the National Conference and with a win, would hold the tiebreaker over Georgia and New Orleans. Cleveland is 7-1 OVER in games where both teams score 48 or more points this season, winning by an average of 2.8 PPG.
Dallas can become the second team in AFL history to record three consecutive seasons with 11 regular season wins with a victory over Cleveland (San Jose – 2002-04). As has been their strength for years, the Desperadoes lead the league with the best road record at 5-1 (3-3 ATS) and are off imposing 67-41 win as 2.5-point road underdogs at Orlando. The offensive outburst was a season high in points scored for Dallas and could signal QB Clint Dolezel and running mates are coming together, averaging 62 PPG in last three encounters. The Desperadoes are 17-5 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.
A FREE FoxSheet is available just for reading, with Cleveland a three-point home underdog, with total of 105.5. The Gladiators will need shields and whatever else they can find, as Dallas is 7-0 ATS in road games after a win by 14 or more points.
StatFox Power Line – Dallas by 5
StatFox Edge – Dallas covers
Tampa Bay at Georgia
This has the makings of a dandy contest, with Southern Division rival Tampa Bay and Georgia knocking heads. The Storm (6-6, 5-7 ATS), though still in division basement; has created a whirlwind of excitement in winning and covering four of last five. The Force (7-5, 6-6 ATS) has forced their will upon the opposition in surging to four victories in a row (4-0 ATS).
The Tampa Bay defense had led Storm surge, creating 16 turnovers in last five contests, holding opposing teams to just 44 PPG in last four W’s. The defense leads Arena Football in total defense and fewest passing yards allowed and are third in allowing the least amount of first downs. The Storm is 27-12 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 52 or more points a game after eight or more contests into a season.
QB Chris Greisen leads an upstart parvenu offense that is first in yards per game (332.5) and third in scoring at 58 PPG. These numbers and the winning streak would not be possible without the benefit of the offensive line. The Force’s O-Line has surrendered only three sacks, the fewest in the league. With this much time, Greisen has been able to pick apart defenses and leads a team that is 8-1 ATS after gaining 7.5 or more yards a play in two consecutive games.
Georgia is a 4.5-point favorite, with Total listed at 108.5. The Force is 6-7 straight up hosting Tampa Bay since 1996, but has won and covered the last two. Seven of the last nine meetings have gone Under, leading to this system possibly being noteworthy. Play UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 100, the home club is excellent passing team (8.2 or more PYA) against an average passing team like Tampa Bay (6.7-7.7 PYA), after eight or more games. This system is renowned 19-3, 86.3 percent the last five years.
StatFox Power Line – Georgia by 5
StatFox Edge – Under
Season Record - 31-18-2 (63.2 percent)
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