By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 6/4/2008 at 10:25:00 AM

When you are the worst hitting by average and 27th scoring team in major league baseball, some times it can be beneficial to meet your match, the opposite that is. The Cleveland Indians entered the series in Texas, having lost 12 of last 15, having seldom got on base, let alone scoring runs. Enter the Rangers pitching staff, who hands out hits like lollipops at kids’ day camp.

As the four-game series concludes this evening, Cleveland has manufactured 35 runs in three games, totaling up 48 base hits, raising team batting average to .243 and moved all the way up to 19th in runs scored. Though the Indians have won two of the first three games, their pitchers haven’t exactly been fooling Texas batters, who have racked up 31 runs, while pounding out 44 base-knocks.

Pitching has long been a problem for the Texas organization, lacking talent in the minors, signing the wrong pitchers in free agency and playing in a hitter’s ballpark. Texas is the only team in baseball with an ERA over five (5.10), as opponents hit a robust .286 against them and to make matters worse, they allow the most walks in baseball.

Last night with the game tied at six heading into the sixth inning, the Rangers bullpen, already battered in this series, brought in Elizardo Ramirez, who over the next 2 2/3 innings, gave up nine runs on eight hits, with two walks (surprise). He ended up making 70 pitches and essentially had to take one for the team, in staying in the game until he literally couldn’t get anyone out. He left the game shell-shocked with 30.38 ERA (not a misprint). The Texas bullpen now has a lamentable ERA of 5.40.

Two veteran hurlers will take the hill this evening, C.C. Sabathia (3-7, 4.72) for the Tribe and Kevin Millwood (3-3, 4.50) for Texas. Neither has pitched close to preseason expectations, except for a few starts here and there. Sabathia is the better overall pitcher and has 7-2 record against the Rangers, leading to Cleveland being a -125 road favorite at Bookmaker.com with Total Un10.

Understanding all these factors, leads to a Super Situation favoring the Indians.

PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (Texas) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for six or more runs.

With Ramirez being throttled and Millwood owning a 1.593 WHIP, the Cleveland bats should continue to plaster the horsehide around the ballyard. This system is an unbelievable 45-9, 83.3 percent. These contests have tended not to be close either, with the winning margin being 2.3 runs a game.

This system is further enhanced by Cleveland having won 9 of the last 13 at Arlington and is 16-3 against the money line after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more in two straight contests.