By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 6/11/2008 at 10:40:00 AM
In every handicappers arsenal should be the knowledge of systems relating to the specific sport. The beauty of systems is they occur randomly to all teams, based on a given set up circumstances. Their interpretive nature allows the user to make best observation if long term value with more units won is better than a system which has a higher winning percentage over half the time or less. On this hump day, here are three killer baseball betting systems to consider.

In afternoon action, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles will play the rubber match of their three game series. Each team has won be a significant margin in the first two games, and a real dandy of a pitching aces is set. Both Scott Kazmir (6-1, 1.40) and John Lackey (2-1, 1.70) started the year on the disabled list and both have dazzling since returning to the head of the rotation. The Rays Kazmir has been overpowering in last three starts (3-0, 1.23) allowing 12 hits in 22 innings, walking three, with 22 strikeouts. Lackey has been no slouch, giving up 16 hits in 23 innings of work, with 0.783 WHIP. With the Angels a slight -115 favorite and the Total at Ov7, this system arises.

PLAY UNDER home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (LA ANGELS) - with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last three starts.

With the kind of pitching these two boast, it appears this system will improve upon 44-14 record the last five years.

The New York Mets returned home and saw its bullpen battered around late, in losing 9-5 to Arizona. The Mets pen allowed four runs in the last two innings to break up a tie game. New York has lost five in a row to fall into fourth place in the NL East and has the unenviable task of facing one of the best pitchers in all of baseball tonight in Brandon Webb (11-2, 2.58). Though Sportsbook.com has them as +115 home underdog, there is a ray of hope for the Metropolitans.

PLAY ON home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start.

The presumption is the home teams starting pitcher is due for a good outing, otherwise his team would be a larger underdog in this situation. Mike Pelfrey (2-6, 4.65) has been given the assignment of seeing if he and the Mets can improve upon system that is 42-13, 76.3 percent, winning +30.7 units.

Over in Pittsburgh, the Pirates will attempt to recover from blowing a one-run lead in the ninth and falling to Washington 7-6. This was especially painful for Pittsburgh since they had come from behind themselves, scoring a pair of runs in the bottom of the eighth. The Bucs will send Ian Snell (2-6, 1.800 WHIP) to the hill who has struggled mightily all season. Snell’s problem all year is he keeps hitting bats, with opponents knocking 93 base hits in only 71 2/3 innings. (FREE FoxSheet available for this matchup) Yet despite poor performance, the Pirates are still favored, with this unique situation.

PLAY AGAINST road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse on the season-NL.

Snell meets the criteria of a meager starting pitcher and the Nationals have as many saves as blown ones (13), suggesting with the money line being relatively low, Pittsburgh would have a chance to turn the tables from last night in the late innings. This system is 67-20, 77 percent.