By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 6/22/2008 at 7:53:00 PM
It is almost hard to fathom, Arizona was 20-8 after the first month of this season and looked to be as good as any team in baseball, with a young nucleus of talent on the field and a four presumed solid starting pitchers on the mound. Since May 1, the first place Diamondbacks can be thankful they are in the NL West, the only division in major league baseball that has just one team with a winning record. The D-Backs are 19-29 since that juncture, which happens to be their record out of division as well.

The Boston Red Sox are also in first place, having played three more games than Tampa Bay, accounting for 1.5-game lead in the AL East. Boston has battled injuries in every day lineup, veteran pitchers not in starting rotation and brutal every season schedule. Through it all, the Red Sox have persevered, largely due to fabulous record at Fenway Park. Over the weekend, even that took a hit, as they needed a 13th inning, two-run bomb from Kevin Youkilis Sunday afternoon, to salvage a win against St. Louis and avoid being swept at home.

The Red Sox open three-game series versus Arizona with 29-9 home record, collecting +15.8 units of profit. They’ll send Josh Beckett (7-4, 3.87), who finally has his earned run average under four, off seven shutout innings at Cincinnati in his last start. Beckett has yet to lose at Fenway (4-0) in 2008. He’ll face the Snakes Danny Haren (7-4, 3.26), who was the beneficiary of a rare offensive outburst by Arizona, scoring 11 runs in last outing in which he allowed one run and four base-knocks in seven strong innings, striking out eight batters.

In being swept in Minnesota, the big inning was devastating to the D-Backs. In the Twin Cities massacre, the Twins scored 17 of 18 runs in the series, in just three innings, having scored 6, 6 and 5 respectively in each contest, sending Arizona to defeat. With the D-Backs only 15-22 on the road, having lost -8.5 units, it’s easy to understand why Sportsbook.com has the BoSox as -170 favorites, with Total Un8.5.

With two quality pitchers facing one another, the Total seems to make sense, just not in how one might believe.

PLAY OVER on home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10, with a starting pitcher like Beckett, who gave up no earned runs last outing, facing opponent with a hot starting pitcher (Haren in the case), who has a WHIP of under 1.000 (0.800) over his last three starts.

The rational is neither pitcher is likely to throw as well as recent performances, which is what history proposes. In the last five seasons, the average total in these situations has been nine runs. The eventual outcome has blown by that number, with figure at 11.9 runs per game.

This super system has been sensational 42-14, 75 percent the last five years. In fact, 60 percent of the 56 games that fit this situation have surpassed the number by at least one run in this time period.

ESPN will have the first pitch at 7:05 Eastern.