By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 7/1/2008 at 11:28:00 AM
After sweeping San Diego and winning five of six on the road, Seattle returned home possibly feeling good about them selves for the first time all season. The Mariners have more flaws than Brittany Spears without make-up and are not built to change on the run what they are, a crummy major league baseball team. Despite receiving a better than expected performance from R.A. Dickey and the rest of the Seattle staff in holding Toronto to two runs last night, the Mariners were dominated by Roy Halladay, in scoring no runs on four dreadful hits. These ancient Mariners have scored three or less runs 34 times in 82 games (41.4 percent of the time).

Last week at the Mets, was in many ways a microcosm of the M’s season. Felix Hernandez was matched against Johan Santana in what was the making of excellent pitching matchup. Hernandez helped himself and his team immensely, hitting a grand slam home run off of Santana and was pitching brilliantly again. Unfortunately, King Felix had to cover home plate on a play and ended up twisting his ankle severely, putting him on the 15-day DL.

This leaves interim manager Jim Riggleman to turn to an overused bullpen and pull out Ryan Rowland-Smith to start in the second game of series. Rowland-Smith (2-1, 2.66 ERA) has made 32 relief appearances this season the left-hander has been fairly effective. This will be his first start on any level of baseball since 2006. “If he’s feeling strong, there might be an upper limit of four or five (innings),” Riggleman said. “If he’s throwing a lot of pitches and Toronto is on him pretty good, it might be one or two (innings).”

Seattle has scored the fewest runs in the American League at 331 and Toronto is not to far ahead at 346. The Blue Jays pitching staff has been held back by a lack of consistent offense. Toronto is 9th in batting average in the AL at .261, nonetheless are 11th in doubles, home runs and total bases in the junior circuit. Despite the shortcomings, the Blue Jays are -127 road favorites at Bookmaker.com and fit perfectly into today’s top Super Situation.

PLAY ON road favorites like Toronto, with a money line of -125 or more, averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after two straight games with no home runs.

What this system means is if a road team that has offensive issues can still be this large a road favorite, there has to be a reason. In the past, they have broken out, scoring almost six runs in these contests. For sharp bettors, there have been plenty of reasons to make this play, with 42-8 record the last five seasons, gathering 31.8 units of profit. Typically, these wagers are nearly as tasty as a Ruth Chris steak, with winning margin being 2.6 runs. This system has stayed the course, with 10-2 mark in 2008, proving consistency.

Take the time to think about a juicy steak, a cold bottle of beer and what looks like an easy winner in the Great Northwest.