One spot to fill in Arena Football Conference Finals
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 7/6/2008  at  10:46:00 AM

With one major upset in the divisional round and another almost pulled off, what happens on Monday night is certainly intriguing. Top-seeded Philadelphia scored on the last play of the game to fend off New York 49-48 as 9.5-point favorites and Grand Rapids went on a rampage to upset Chicago, who was the other top-seed, coming out of the American Conference. Georgia will have to do their best to prevent from being another team with a week off being stale, when they host Cleveland.

After opening the season 3-5, Georgia (10-6, 7-7-2 ATS), caught fire and reeled off seven straight wins and stormed their way to Southern Division title and second seed in the National Conference. This is the Force fourth straight postseason appearance, led by quarterback Chris Greisen, who threw for second-most passing yards in AFL single-season history in 2008 with 4,946. Georgia led the league in passing and was the big play team, leading Arena Football in yards per passing attempt at 8.4. The Force typically is much like their coach Doug Plank and feeds on emotion, posting 9-1 ATS record when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

It’s been a rollercoaster ride for Cleveland (10-7, 8-7-2 ATS), one year removed from 2-14 season in Las Vegas, where if it could go wrong, it did. In new digs, the Gladiators have flourished, being embraced for Cleveland fans, looking for any sort of championship, especially with the Indians being a huge disappointment this year. Raymond Philyaw has worked with an average cast of receivers, yet found a way and last week had the second-best passing day by any signal caller in playoff history, tossing for 436 yards in home win over Orlando.

Sportsbook.com had Georgia opening as 7.5-point home favorite, with total of 114. The money has been wagered on the underdog Cleveland and the Force are down to a 6.5-point pick. This is a better team than Georgia faced when they were in Vegas, still noteworthy, the Force have won last four meetings (3-1 ATS) by an average of 15 points per game.

Georgia is 11-3 ATS vs. passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse after eight or more games in a season and having lost at San Jose 68-62 in regular season finale, they are 6-0 ATS off an extremely close road loss by six points or less. The Force is 6-2 and 3-4-1 ATS at home and Cleveland arrives in Atlanta at 3-5 and 4-3-1 against number on the road.

Last Monday was the highest rated televised Arena Football game ever and this contest will be on ESPN also starting at 8 Eastern. The winner won’t have much time to rest, with National Conference finals set for next Saturday afternoon in Philadelphia.


StatFox Power Line – Georgia by 10

StatFox Edge – Georgia covers

 

Season Record – 45-24-3 ATS (65.2 percent) 5-2 in Playoffs

 


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