Wins at Brickyard reserved for Top 10
By: Steve Makinen - StatFox
Published: 7/26/2008  at  4:45:00 PM

After enjoying the final weekend off on the 2008 schedule, the NASCAR boys get back to work on Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the running of the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard. Formerly known simply as the Brickyard 400, this race is one of the crown jewels on the Cup schedule each year, both for the pageantry of the host venue as well as the prize money disbursed to the winner. As is usually the case, the stars shine brightest on the biggest stage, as the last three different winners of this race are Tony Stewart (twice) Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Gordon. Johnson and Stewart are among six past drivers who went on to win series titles following their trips to Indy’s victory lane and many experts feel the same destiny could await Kyle Busch this week. He has been the dominant driver with seven season wins already and not surprisingly, he is the listed as the favorite for Sunday at 6-1 odds.

Track positioning and pit strategy have always been key at IMS, as the minimal banking on the track has mandated cautious driving with minimal passing. Most experts believe that there is only a slight difference between the car setups used at Indianapolis to those at Pocono. Keep that in mind when handicapping, since coincidentally, another trip to Pocono follows this week’s event. The top three in the June race at Pocono were Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, and Denny Hamlin. On the odds board, you’ll find Kahne listed at 7-1, Hamlin at 10-1, and Vickers at 18-1. However, none of the three owns a win at Indy. Native Hoosier Gordon has been the star of the 14 previous Brickyard 400 events, winning the race four times, and sitting on the pole three other times. He also owns four other top 5 finishes in those starts. The other hometown boy, Stewart, has also been strong, averaging a 7.6 finish in nine prior races. He was so exalted by his 2005 win that he claimed his “life would have been complete” had he died in victory lane following the race. The passion for winning here and ultimately “Kissing the Bricks” is that high amongst the drivers.

The week off has provided plenty of news, as well as the chance for many drivers to reflect on their seasons thus far. On the newsfront, Stewart’s departure from Joe Gibbs racing following this season was the most noteworthy, followed by Ryan Newman’s split with Penske Racing. With Stewart moving on to a driver/ownership role with Haas Racing, the speculation is that Newman will soon follow to that team. We’ll see if the distractions affect both on Sunday. As far as drivers reflecting on what has happened to this point in the season, look no further than at the top of the standings for what has gone right in NASCAR in ’08. Kyle Busch is enjoying a dominant season, one that could go down as among the best ever in Cup Series racing if the pace continues. On the opposite side of the fence, disappointment has lined the halls of the team headquarters’ at Penske and Ganassi. Not a single driver from those teams is in Chase contention with just seven races left till the cutoff.

As indicated earlier, Busch is the favorite at 6-1 odds. He not only boasts the seven season wins, he is also the driver with the best average finish at Indy in multiple starts, 7.0. Johnson, Stewart, and Kahne are next in line at 7-1, followed by Carl Edwards at 8-1. One thing to consider when wagering on drivers to win this week is that no one outside of the Top 10 in the standings going into the Brickyard race has won in any of the previous 14 races. That would eliminate Kahne from consideration. It is believed that the strong not only survive at Indy, but thrive. That said, Gordon (15-1) could be worthy of a look as underdog, along with Matt Kenseth (10-1) and Greg Biffle (15-1). Some others who could be worth a shot in head-to-head matchups might include Kevin Harvick (7.7 average finish) and Juan Montoya (2nd here in ’07). On the opposite end, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (21.1 avg), Johnson (23.5), and Newman (23.7) all average worse than a 20th place finish at the Brickyard, stats considered low by their standards.

This week’s qualifying for the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard begins Saturday at 10:10 AM ET, with the race green flag scheduled for Sunday at 2:17 PM ET. With track position being critical, the qualifying usually plays a huge factor, with seven of the previous 14 winners starting in the top 5. Stewart started 14th a year ago, and no winner has ever come from worse than 27th. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are ready to prepare you for all of the racing action…


Copyright © 2006 StatFox.com. All rights reserved.