MIAMI DOLPHINS

2013 Odds:
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Odds to Win AFC East: 7/2
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 20/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVIII: 50/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 7.5

2013 Preview:
Offense:
More than last season, this year’s Miami offense figures to more closely resemble the one head coach Joe Philbin was a part of in Green Bay. Expect a lot more running out of spread looks, as the Dolphins have the personnel to line up three- and four-wide and let speedy slasher Lamar Miller stick his foot in the ground and get upfield. Miller is set to get a true No. 1 workload behind a zone-blocking line. Daniel Thomas is the No. 2 but spends a lot of time in the doghouse.

The Dolphins are largely a West Coast offense, but they’ll be able to stretch the field more this season. Both Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline are capable of big plays downfield, and Wallace will be used often as a catch-and-run threat as well. TE Dustin Keller will play a lot of reps and should be their primary target in the middle of the field. Brandon Gibson figures to return to strictly slot duties, as his skill set is similar to that of the departed Davone Bess. The Dolphins use their backs as receivers often, and both Miller and Thomas are capable receivers. The Dolphins figure to remain relatively run- heavy in the red zone, especially after losing top red zone target Anthony Fasano.

Defense:
The Dolphins finished seventh in scoring defense despite not forcing a turnover in seven of their final nine games. They moved up to draft DE Dion Jordan to line up opposite star DE Cameron Wake (15 sacks), and are banking on both CBs Brent Grimes (Achilles) and Richard Marshall (back) to be injury-free. Miami released ILBs Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett, and spent big on MLB Dannell Ellerbe (92 tackles, 69 solos with Ravens), giving him to a 5-year, $35M deal, and then grabbed SLB Philip Wheeler (109 tackles, 78 solos with Raiders) and inked him to $26M over five years.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
WR Mike Wallace (Steelers)
WR Brandon Gibson (Rams)
TE Dustin Keller (Jets)
OT Tyson Clabo (Falcons)
G Lance Louis (Bears)
DE Vaughn Martin (Chargers)
ILB Dannell Ellerbe (Ravens)
LB Philip Wheeler (Raiders)
CB Brent Grimes (Falcons)

SUBTRACTIONS
RB Reggie Bush (Lions)
WR Davone Bess (Browns)
WR Marlon Moore (49ers)
TE Anthony Fasano (Chiefs)
TE Jeron Mustrad (Raiders)
OT Jake Long (Rams)
OT Patrick Brown (Panthers)
PK Nate Kaeding (Buccaneers)
DT Tony McDaniel (Seahawks)
ILB Karlos Dansby (Cardinals)
ILB Kevin Burnett (Raiders)
CB Sean Smith (Chiefs)
CB Bryan McCann (Cardinals)
S Jonathon Amaya (Cardinals)

2013 Schedule (All times ET):
2013 Schedule Strength: 20.69 (14th toughest in NFL)
9/8 at Cleveland, 1:00
9/15 at Indianapolis, 1:00
9/22 ATLANTA, 4:05
9/30 at New Orleans, 8:40
10/6 BALTIMORE, 1:00
Bye Week 6
10/20 BUFFALO, 1:00
10/27 at New England, 1:00
10/31 CINCINNATI, 8:25
11/11 at Tampa Bay, 8:40
11/17 SAN DIEGO, 1:00
11/24 CAROLINA, 1:00
12/1 at NY Jets, 1:00
12/8 at Pittsburgh, 1:00
12/15 NEW ENGLAND, 1:00
12/22 at Buffalo, 1:00
12/29 NY JETS, 1:00

StatFox Take: The Dolphins made plenty of moves in the offseason to try to end a four-year streak of not reaching .500, upgrading their passing offense with WR Mike Wallace and TE Dustin Keller, while shoring up what was already a strong defense with the additions of CB Brent Grimes and LBs Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler. However, collecting eight wins will be no easy task, even with two subpar divisional teams (Bills and Jets) comprising a quarter of their games. Miami still has a harder schedule than most, and could struggle late with three cold-weather games in December (New York, Pittsburgh, Buffalo). This team should win anywhere from 6-to-9 games this season, but with such a heavy price to pay for the Over (-170), the more responsible wager is to take the plus money and hope for another season of seven wins or less.
Prediction: UNDER 7.5 wins (+140)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - Monday, August 5
Cincinnati Bengals - Tuesday, August 6
Cleveland Browns - Wednesday, August 7
Pittsburgh Steelers - Thursday, August 8

AFC South
Houston Texans - Friday, August 9
Indianapolis Colts - Saturday, August 10
Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, August 11
Tennessee Titans - Monday, August 12

AFC West
Denver Broncos - Tuesday, August 13
Kansas City Chiefs - Wednesday, August 14
Oakland Raiders - Thursday, August 15
San Diego Chargers - Friday, August 16

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Saturday, August 17
New York Giants - Sunday, August 18
Philadelphia Eagles - Monday, August 19
Washington Redskins - Tuesday, August 20

NFC North
Chicago Bears - Wednesday, August 21
Detroit Lions - Thursday, August 22
Green Bay Packers - Friday, August 23
Minnesota Vikings - Saturday, August 24

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Sunday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Monday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Tuesday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Wednesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Thursday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Friday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Saturday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Sunday, September 1