Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Texas A&M -19, Total: 66.5

No. 11 Texas A&M will look to win its third straight game (SU and ATS) when it hosts heavy underdog Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon.

The Aggies are just 4-5 ATS this season but have won two in a row, beating Vanderbilt and UTEP in consecutive weeks by a combined margin of 113 to 31. Those two big wins followed a disappointing 45-41 home loss to Auburn in which they were 12.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS this season, dropping their past four games ATS after a hot start. An upset appears unlikely for Mississippi State as the team is 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS as an underdog over the past three years. Over the past two seasons, the Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of more than 75%. That includes last year’s 38-13 home loss to the Aggies, when Texas A&M racked up 693 yards and moved the ball at will.

Will Texas A&M win a third straight game by a blowout margin? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 regular season and bowl season. The four experts are a combined 55.3% ATS (94-76-7) in college football Best Bets for the season, led by StatFox Dave who is 59% ATS (30-21-2) in Best Bets this season, including 71% ATS (17-7-1) during a run of six straight weeks of .500 or better. StatFox Brian is 57% ATS (24-18-1) in college football Best Bets this year, while StatFox Gary is 56% ATS (15-12-1) for yearly CFB Best Bets.

The Aggies offense is one of the best in the nation again this year, ranking fourth nationally in scoring (49.0 PPG) and sixth in passing yards (371.8 per game). That’s because QB Johnny Manziel is having another Heisman-caliber season, completing 200-of-276 of his passes (73%) for 2,867 yards with 26 touchdowns and only eight picks. He has also run for 564 yards and 8 TD on 96 carries, averaging 5.9 YPC. His top target through the air has been WR Mike Evans (52 catches, 1,147 yards, 12 TD), while 11 different Aggies have caught the ball in the end zone already this year. Supplementing Manziel’s production on the ground is RB Ben Malena, who has 89 carries for 456 yards (5.1 YPC) and eight touchdowns. Last year against the Bulldogs, Manziel completed an incredible 30-of-36 passes for 311 yards and ran for 129 more, scoring twice with his legs. Malena also had a big game, rushing for 112 yards on 17 carries. A&M’s defense has been its weakness this year, surrendering 5.1 YPC on the ground and 7.3 yards per attempt through the air.

Last year, the Bulldogs managed only 310 yards against the Aggies defense. But QB Dak Prescott is under center now. Prescott has completed 59.1% of his passes this year, throwing for five touchdowns and six interceptions. As those numbers suggest, he isn’t much of a threat through the air, but he can definitely make plays with his legs, racking up a team-high 568 yards on the ground on 6.0 YPC, while rushing for 10 scores. His top receiving target has been WR Jameon Lewis, who has four receiving touchdowns and 491 yards in 2013. The Mississippi State defense must limit Manziel more than it did last year. Their rush defense has been fine, giving up 4.4 YPC, while through the air they allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt, with opponents completing 60.8% of their passes.