Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan State -6.5, Total: 42

Nebraska has never lost to Michigan State in seven meetings, but enters Saturday’s contest as a home underdog with the No. 14 Spartans charging toward a potential berth in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Nebraska is 7-0 all-time against Michigan State, including 5-0 (SU and ATS) since 1995. For the first time in the series history, Michigan State was actually favored last season by a point, but the Cornhuskers pulled out a 28-24 victory in East Lansing with two late touchdowns. Unlike last year, however, Taylor Martinez (hip) won’t be under center, and redshirt freshman Tommy Armstrong Jr. will start in his place. He has struggled though, and failed to command the offense in a way Martinez could. The hallmark of this Michigan State team is its stingy defense that yields only 11.6 PPG, the third fewest in the nation. However, Nebraska is 10-0 ATS since 1992 against teams that give up 14 or fewer PPG. Michigan State, meanwhile, is 11-1 ATS after allowing 250 or fewer yards per game over their last three contests since 1992. The Spartans are riding a five-game SU win streak to put them at 8-1 SU and 5-3-1 ATS for the year, going 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) against Big Ten opponents. The Cornhuskers are 5-4 ATS, including 1-0 ATS as an underdog after upsetting 6-point favorite Michigan last weekend on the road.

Can Michigan State extend its win streak in a tough environment? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 regular season and bowl season. The four experts are a combined 53% ATS (98-87-7) in college football Best Bets for the season, led by StatFox Dave who is 59% ATS (31-22-2) in Best Bets this season, including 69% ATS (18-8-1) during a run of seven straight weeks of .500 or better. StatFox Brian is also 59% ATS (27-19-1) in college football Best Bets this year, including a 64% ATS (16-9) surge over the past five weeks. Last week he picked Virginia Tech to win straight up at Miami, and Florida State to win 52-3 over Wake Forest in a game the 'Noles won 59-3.

It’s been nearly impossible to rush against the Spartans defense this season as they give up a pithy 43 YPG on 1.6 YPC. Passing isn’t much easier, with the secondary holding opposing quarterbacks to 167 YPG with a 46.7% completion rate and 4.9 yards per attempt. The offense isn’t a juggernaut, but has been efficient with junior QB Connor Cook under center. He has completed 59.1% of his passes for 1,490 yards, throwing 13 TD and only 3 INT. His top targets have been WRs Bennie Fowler (26 catches, 353 yards, 5 TD) and Macgarrett Kings Jr. (28 catches, 317 yards, 3 TD). On the ground, junior RB Jeremy Langford is averaging 4.6 YPC with 775 yards and 10 TD. He has only gotten better as the season has wore on, now amid a stretch of four consecutive 100-yard games.

Tommy Armstrong Jr. has struggled to generate an offensive flow, completing only 55.3% of his passes for 659 yards in five games, tossing 5 TD and 6 INT. In his past three contests, he is a dismal 32-for-66 (48.5%) for 355 yards (5.4 YPA), 2 TD and 6 INT. The key in the passing attack is finding senior WR Quincy Enunwa, a dangerous weapon at 6-foot-2 with eight touchdowns and 536 receiving yards this season. Armstrong can also use his legs, rushing for two touchdowns and 166 yards on 51 carries. The strength of the offense though, is with the rushing attack (247 YPG, 15th in nation), as RB Ameer Abdullah has been fantastic, rumbling for 1,213 yards on 6.6 YPC and seven touchdowns. In the red zone, Imani Cross has also been quite effective, with nine touchdowns on 70 carries for 357 yards (5.1 YPC). The Cornhuskers average 35.9 PPG (30th in FBS), but will face their toughest test of the year against this Spartans defense. Nebraska’s defense has been solid, yielding only 22.8 PPG this season (35th in nation), but have allowed an uncharacteristic 426 total YPG in six home games. The Cornhuskers give up just 160 rushing YPG on 4.0 yards per carry, but completely stifled Michigan last week with allowing minus-21 rushing yards on 36 carries. The Nebraska pass defense has limited opposing QBs to a mere 55.8% completion rate and a pedestrian 7.2 yards per pass attempt.