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No. 7 Auburn hosts No. 25 Georgia on Saturday
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 11/16/2013  at  4:36:00 AM
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GEORGIA BULLDOGS (6-3)
at AUBURN TIGERS (9-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn -3.5, Total: 62.5

No. 7 Auburn, the surprise of the SEC, will look to improve to 6-1 in the conference on Saturday hosting No. 25 Georgia, which already has three losses after beginning the season ranked in the top 10.

Last year when these two teams played at Auburn, Georgia rolled to a 38-0 victory, part of a season in which the Tigers didn’t win a conference game. But this is a different season and Auburn is now on a six-game SU winning streak and seven-game ATS win streak ATS to improve to 9-1 SU and 7-2 ATS overall. Its only loss this season came on the road at LSU. Georgia has won two in a row SU after dropping consecutive games to Missouri and Vanderbilt, but they have only one ATS win all year (1-7-1 ATS), losing five in a row ATS. Still, the Bulldogs have dominated this series since 2006, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. They have also had success at Jordan-Hare Stadium with a 6-3 SU record (5-4 ATS) since 1996. And Georgia’s offense could help propel them to victory, as road underdogs averaging 450+ yards per game, after gaining at least 7.25 yards per play in their previous game, are 37-9 ATS (80%) over the past five seasons. But Auburn's Gus Malzahn is 11-1 ATS after following a conference game and 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season in his coaching career

Can Auburn keep its win streak intact on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 regular season and bowl season. The four experts are a combined 53% ATS (98-87-7) in college football Best Bets for the season, led by StatFox Dave who is 59% ATS (31-22-2) in Best Bets this season, including 69% ATS (18-8-1) during a run of seven straight weeks of .500 or better. StatFox Brian is also 59% ATS (27-19-1) in college football Best Bets this year, including a 64% ATS (16-9) surge over the past five weeks. Last week he picked Virginia Tech to win straight up at Miami, and Florida State to win 52-3 over Wake Forest in a game the 'Noles won 59-3.

Despite a slew of injuries to the Georgia offense, QB Aaron Murray has been outstanding this season, completing 63.3% of his passes for 2,477 yards (10.1 YPA), 20 TD and 7 INT. He was tremendous in last year’s meeting against the Tigers too, completing 18-of-24 passes for 208 yards and three touchdowns. He distributes the ball well among the Bulldogs receivers, as 10 different players have caught TD passes. Junior WR Chris Conley has been his main target, reeling in 30 catches for 418 yards and four touchdowns, but he has missed the past two games with an ankle injury and will be a game-time decision for Saturday. RB Todd Gurley also had a big game against Auburn last year, taking the pigskin 11 times for 116 yards and one touchdown. Despite missing three games with an injury, he still has 625 yards this season on 101 carries (6.2 YPC), running for six scores. In the last SEC game versus Florida, Gurley ran for 100 yards and also caught three passes for 87 more yards, including a 73-yard touchdown. The Bulldogs defense has held opposing rushers to 3.4 YPC, though through the air foes are averaging 7.3 yards per passing attempt, which is a big reason why the team has allowed 28.8 PPG (78th in FBS).

Auburn’s offense is difficult to stop with a rushing attack that averages 320.0 YPG, third most in the nation. That’s a big contrast from the last two seasons when they carried the ball 52 times for only 108 yards (2.1 YPC) and scored a total of seven points in two losses to Georgia. Tigers QB Nick Marshall is under center this season, and while he’s not a great passer with a 58.5% completion rate, 8 TD and 5 INT, he is a tremendous ball carrier. Marshall has rushed for 734 yards on 104 carries (7.1 YPC) with seven touchdowns, and he’s coming off a career game against Tennessee in which he took the ball 14 times for 214 yards (15.3 YPC) on the ground and two touchdowns. Junior RB Tre Mason is the team’s leading rusher with 181 carries for 1,038 yards (5.7 YPC) and 16 TD. In the past five SEC games, Mason has rumbled for 672 yards (5.3 YPC) and 11 scores. Backing him up are junior RBs Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant, who each have more than 500 yards on the ground, combining for 1,072 yards and 9 TD. Auburn is 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) at home this season where it has outscored opponents 38 to 9 and outgained them by a 506 to 364 margin. The Tigers defense is holding opposing quarterbacks to a 56.6% completion rate while opposing ball carriers are averaging 4.2 YPC. Auburn has forced at least one turnover in nine of 10 games, including five games with multiple takeaways.


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