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No. 8 Missouri heads to No. 24 Ole Miss Saturday night
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 11/23/2013  at  4:24:00 AM
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MISSOURI TIGERS (9-1)
at OLE MISS REBELS (7-3)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Line: Missouri -2.5, Total: 57

No. 8 Missouri faces a tough road test in its quest to reach the SEC title game as it visits No. 24 Ole Miss on Saturday night.

The Tigers get a welcome addition to their offense this week as QB James Franklin looks like he’ll return after missing the past four games with a shoulder injury. Officially listed as questionable, he’s expected to start. Missouri’s only loss came without him to South Carolina, though they rebounded with dominant SU and ATS wins against Tennessee and Kentucky. Overall, the Tigers are 8-2 ATS this season and a perfect 4-0 (SU and ATS) on the road. Since a three-point loss to Texas A&M, the Rebels have reeled off four straight wins (3-1 ATS). They are 6-4 ATS this season with a 4-2 ATS mark at home. Last weekend, they covered a 28-point spread with a 51-21 win against Troy. These two teams have met only twice in recent memory, in 2006 and 2007. Missouri won both games SU and ATS. The Tigers are 19-9 ATS (68%) on the road coming off a double-digit conference win under head coach Gary Pinkel, but Ole Miss is 14-4 ATS (78%) in games played on turf in the past two seasons.

Which ranked team will win this SEC clash? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 regular season and bowl season. The four experts are a combined 54% ATS (105-91-7) in college football Best Bets for the season, led by StatFox Dave who is 59% ATS (32-22-2) in Best Bets this season, including 70% ATS (19-8-1) during a run of eight straight weeks of .500 or better. StatFox Brian is also 59% ATS (30-21-1) in college football Best Bets this year, including a 63% ATS (19-11) surge over the past five weeks. StatFox Gary is 53% ATS (17-15-1) in college football Best Bets for the season, and is coming off a perfect 2-0 ATS week.

Missouri QB James Franklin was amid a tremendous season before he got hurt, completing 67.7% of his passes for 14 TD and only 3 INT. In three games before getting hurt, he threw eight touchdowns and no picks. Franklin also brings a great deal of athleticism to the table, running for 290 yards (4.5 YPC) and 3 TD. The Tigers receiving corps is deep as three players—L’Damian Washington, Dorial Green-Beckham and Marcus Lucas—all have more than 500 receiving yards. Washington and Green-Beckham are the most dangerous of the three, each corralling nine touchdowns through the air. RB Henry Josey is Missouri’s main weapon on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPC for 760 yards and a whopping 10 TD. But don’t forget about RBs Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy, who have 544 and 485 rushing yards, respectively. Murphy has seven rushing touchdowns as part of this high-power offense that averages 41.3 PPG thanks to scoring 26 touchdowns on the ground thus far. The defense isn’t too shabby either, yielding 20.2 PPG, led by a fierce front seven that gives up a pithy 3.3 YPC.

Rebels QB Bo Wallace has been among the most productive throwers in the nation this year, completing 64.7% of his passes for 2,664 yards and 17 TD while only tossing five picks. He’s completed more than 70% of his passes over his past three games, throwing for 8 TD and 2 INT. Wallace is less of a threat on the ground, averaging only 2.3 YPC, but he does have four rushing scores. RB Jeff Scott (488 rush yards, 7.6 YPC, 2 TD), I’Tavius Mathers (429 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 2 TD) and Jaylen Walton (391 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 6 TD) take care of most of the work on the ground. Wallace’s favorite target has been WR Donte Montcrief, who has 44 catches for 686 yards and five touchdowns this year. He’s talented, but inconsistent. In his past six games, he has gained more than 100 yards three times, but fewer than 40 yards three times. The Ole Miss defense is giving up only 25.0 PPG this season, with opponents rushing for 4.1 YPC and completing 64.2% of their passes, which could mean an easy transition back to action for Franklin.


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