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No. 1 Michigan State takes on Virginia Tech Friday
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 11/22/2013  at  4:00:00 AM
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VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (3-1)

vs. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (4-0)

Coaches vs. Cancer Classic
Barclays Center – Brooklyn, NY
Tip-off: Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan State -15.5

Michigan State will put its No. 1 ranking and undefeated record on the line Friday night in Brooklyn against a Virginia Tech squad that was pegged to struggle this year, but is off to a 3-1 start.

The Spartans are 4-0 SU but only 1-2 ATS to start the year, failing to cover spreads in excess of 20 points in their past two wins against Columbia and Portland. Their one cover was their big win in the Champions Classic against then-No. 1 Kentucky, making them 1-0 ATS in neutral site games this season. The Hokies are 2-0 ATS, covering in their wins against Western Carolina and West Virginia, their only other major-conference opponent thus far. And Virginia Tech is not the team the Spartans want to see now that they have the top ranking in the country. The Hokies are an impressive 4-7 all-time against the No. 1 team in the land, including three wins in their past five attempts. Furthermore, Michigan State is 2-11 ATS after two consecutive non-conference wins over the past two seasons. They are, however, 17-6 ATS over the last three seasons after playing three consecutive games as a favorite. Spartans leading scorer C Adreian Payne has been slowed by a foot injury, but he is expected to play on Friday.

Can Michigan State cover the hefty spread against a surging Virginia Tech squad? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. StatFox Forecaster has been profitable so far this season with a 55% ATS record (22-18-2) in featured games. StatFox Scott has also started strong with a 64% ATS (9-5) mark in college basketball Best Bets.

Virginia Tech has quickly had to adjust to a new-look offense this year that isn’t built around Erick Green, the nation’s leading scorer from a year ago. But the Hokies have posted a respectable 83.5 PPG in the early going, notably ranking 19th nationally with 45.0 RPG. They are shooting 46% FG (45% threes), while allowing only 37% FG on 29% threes. Senior wing Jarell Eddie (16.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG) has been their leading scorer, and at 6-foot-7, he has the size of a forward, but the skillset of a guard with his shooting range that is netting him 2.5 threes per game on a 50.0% clip in the early going. Joining him down low is junior F C.J. Barksdale, who has had a strong season debut in Monday's 105-92 win over VMI with 16 points (7-of-12 FG), six rebounds and three assists. Barksdale was suspended for the season's first three contests. Michigan State also has to watch out for 6-foot-11 PF Trevor Thompson down low, because in just 17.7 MPG this year he’s tallying 8.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 3.0 BPG. The backcourt has three strong weapons with freshman SG Ben Emelogu (15.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG) beginning the year scorching hot from distance, hitting 2.8 threes per game on a 52.4% clip. Sophomore SG Adam Smith (10.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.5 APG) has also been effective, while freshman PG Devin Wilson (10.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.8 APG) has been the team’s top distributor. Still, passing the ball is one area in which this team needs to improve, averaging only 11.8 APG, which ranks 242nd nationally.

The Spartans, by contrast, are the nation’s second-best ball distributors to start the season, averaging 21.5 APG. Senior PG Keith Appling (15.3 PPG, 6.3 APG, 4.0 RPG) leads that effort and is one of the most savvy point guards in the nation, though three other players have at least 3.0 APG, showing the strong ball movement all around. This has led to the team scoring 80.0 PPG on 48% FG (37% threes), while it has allowed a paltry 62.5 PPG on 38% FG and 29% threes. C Adreian Payne (17.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG) has been the team’s top scorer to begin the season, and he and SF Branden Dawson (9.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 3.0 APG) combine to make a physical duo on the glass. Dawson, who can also defend the perimeter, leads the team in rebounding and averages 1.8 SPG. The team’s most dynamic threat, however, may be SG Gary Harris (16.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG), a future NBA Draft lottery pick who can often score at will. The sophomore has been cold from three-point range to start the year at 30%, but expect him to finish closer to where he did last season at 41%. Other key assets for Tom Izzo include SG Denzel Valentine (7.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.0 APG) and PG Travis Trice (6.0 PPG, 3.3 APG) who can both pass well and stretch defenses with their 3-point shooting abilities.


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