Maui Invitational - Semifinals
Lahaina Civic Center – Maui, HI
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor -3.5

After just barely getting by a Division II Chaminade squad in the quarterfinals, No. 18 Baylor will look to step up its game against an upset-minded Dayton squad Tuesday night in the Maui Invitational semifinals.

The Bears led by just three points after the first half against Chaminade, yielding 47 points in the first 20 minutes of play, but rallied for a 93-77 victory to improve to 5-0 SU on the season. Dayton, meanwhile, trailed by nine at the half to No. 11 Gonzaga in the quarterfinals, but outscored the Bulldogs by 14 in the second half to advance to this round. With the win, the Flyers improved to 5-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with both ATS wins coming as underdogs. Baylor is also 2-1 ATS. These two schools have never met, but the big matchup will be down low where the Bears average a hefty 43.0 RPG. While Dayton grabs only 35.4 RPG, they have outrebounded its opponent in all five contests this season, including the Bulldogs in the quarterfinals.

Which team will advance to the championship of the Maui Invitational? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. StatFox Scott has started strong with a 60% ATS (9-6) mark in college basketball Best Bets.

Baylor has two stars in the post. One is 7-foot C Isaiah Austin (10.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG), who is a future NBA Draft first-round pick. Though his offensive game still needs work, he’s averaging a monstrous 4.4 BPG and can stop opponents at will near the hoop. The other is senior PF Cory Jefferson (13.4 PPG, 9.6 RPG) who doesn’t have the same upside, but is far more polished. Over his past three games, he’s averaging 15.7 PPG and 10.0 RPG. He also adds 1.6 BPG, helping Austin’s block party. Senior SG Brady Heslip (14.8 PPG) leads the team in scoring thus far, but he doesn’t do much else, averaging less than one rebound and one assist per game. He can shoot the ball tremendously though, hitting 3.4 threes per game so far on a 50% clip. Junior PG Kenny Chery (11.8 PPG, 4.8 APG) also comes in at double figures for this offense while also leading the team in assists. SGs Gary Franklin (8.6 PPG, 3.0 APG) and Royce O’Neale (6.8 PPG, 3.4 APG) are also important weapons in the backcourt. Franklin dropped 22 to help the Bears avoid their upset Monday night, while Rico Gathers (4.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) was also big off the bench with 14 rebounds.

Outrebounding the Bears could be Dayton’s key to another upset, but also so could the team’s three-point shooting. The Flyers hit 9-of-21 treys against Gonzaga and is shooting above 40% from distance on the season, and 14 Chaminade three-pointers almost gave them the upset over Baylor. Six-foot-4 SG Jordan Sibert (15.6 PPG) led that effort against Gonzaga, hitting 5-of-8 from long range and making 2.6 threes per game this year on a 50% clip. He could have to go shot-for-shot against Heslip in this one. Three other players average double figures for the Flyers, including forwards Devin Oliver (12.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG). They are the team’s two top rebounders but they stand at just 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-6, respectively, giving them potential size trouble against Austin and Jefferson. That could force 6-foot-9 C Devon Scott (5.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) into a bigger role. Also watch out for 5-foot-11 G Khari Price (12.2 PPG), who is hitting 50% of his three-pointers this season at 10-for-20.