Kickoff: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Line: Missouri -4.5, Total: 66.5

In order to advance to the SEC title game, No. 5 Missouri must beat No. 19 Texas A&M and stop Johnny Manziel in both teams’ regular-season finale on Saturday.

The Tigers have won three in a row (SU and ATS) and are coming off a victory against then-No. 24 Ole Miss in QB James Franklin’s return to action. They have yet to lose with Franklin under center this season, only falling while he was injured to South Carolina, which would take the SEC East crown if the Tigers lose. Overall, Missouri is an extremely impressive 9-2 ATS this season, though both of its ATS defeats came at home. The Aggies are coming off a rough 34-10 loss to LSU in which Manziel had an extremely poor outing (16-of-41, 224 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT). That was A&M's second consecutive ATS loss, dropping the club to 4-7 ATS on the season and 0-3 ATS on the road. The Aggies are also 0-8 ATS over the past three seasons in road games where the total is at least 63 points. However, Missouri's Gary Pinkel is just 4-14 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival as the head coach of the Tigers. And facing Missouri may be the perfect way for this offense to find its mojo again, as A&M dropped 59 points last year on the Tigers in a 59-29 win.

Can Missouri cap off its season with an SEC East crown? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 regular season and bowl season. The four experts are a combined 52% ATS (109-101-7) in college football Best Bets for the season, led by StatFox Dave who is 59% ATS (33-23-2) in Best Bets this season, including 69% ATS (20-9-1) during a run of eight straight weeks of .500 or better. StatFox Brian is 54% ATS (30-26-1) in college football Best Bets this year.

Manziel is coming off his worst game of the season, but last year against Missouri he was absolutely phenomenal, completing 32-of-44 passes for 372 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. He also rushed for 67 yards and two more scores. Overall this season he is completing 69.1% of his passes for 3,537 yards, 32 TD and 13 INT. He has also rumbled for a team-high 665 rushing yards, adding eight scores on the ground. Complementing his ability to run is RB Ben Malena, who averages 4.8 YPC and paces the team with nine rushing touchdowns. Manziel’s top receiving threat is stud WR Mike Evans, who has hauled in 12 TD passes this year with 1,314 receiving yards. The Aggies defense has regularly struggled, however, giving up 31.2 PPG. The front seven yields a subpar 5.3 YPC while opposing quarterbacks average 7.3 yards per pass attempt against the secondary.

The Missouri defense, by contrast, has been quite stingy this year, allowing only 19.3 PPG (15th in FBS). The rushing defense gives up 3.4 YPC while opposing quarterbacks average 6.4 yards per pass attempt. QB James Franklin didn’t look quite like his usual self in his return to action last week against Ole Miss, throwing for a season-low 142 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT, but he still completed 12-of-19 passes (63%) and ran for 42 yards on 5.3 YPC. Overall he’s completing 67.3% of his passes this year and has 14 TD and only 4 INT. Two receivers—L’Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham—have nine touchdowns apiece, giving the Aggies secondary plenty to focus on. Both caught touchdown passes in last year’s loss to Texas A&M despite being without Franklin, who missed the game after suffering a concussion in the prior week. RB Henry Josey (855 rush yards, 6.1 YPC, 12 TD) leads the Missouri rushing attack this year, while RB Russell Hansbrough (576 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 4 TD) and Marcus Murphy (552 rush yards, 7.0 YPC, 8 TD) aren’t bad options either.