Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Louisville -3.5, Total: 51

Familiar foes try to earn a potential share of the inaugural American Athletic Conference crown on Thursday night when No. 19 Louisville visits Cincinnati.

The Cardinals have just one loss this season, falling to conference leader Central Florida (7-0 in AAC), who the Bearcats do not have on this year’s schedule. If UCF loses Saturday at SMU, then the winner of this game earns a share of the American title. Louisville has won four in a row SU, but is just 1-3 ATS during this stretch and 4-7 ATS overall this year (1-6 ATS in conference play). However, Charlie Strong is 10-1 ATS in road games after an ATS loss as the head coach of the team. Cincinnati rides a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) into this one after early-season road losses at Illinois and South Florida. The Bearcats are 6-5 ATS by contrast, including 3-2 ATS at home and 4-3 ATS against conference foes. They are also 34-13 ATS (72%) versus good teams (10+ PPG margin) since 1992. These two teams pushed last season when Louisville won the Keg of Nails (a trophy rewarded since 1929 to the winner of this matchup) 34-31 as three-point favorites in OT, while the Bearcats won the trophy a year before despite failing to cover a 13-point spread in the 25-16 victory. But the Cardinals have enjoyed most of their visits to Cincinnati, where they are 6-3 SU (7-2 ATS) since 1992.

Who will win this long-time rivalry on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 regular season and bowl season. The four experts have been led by StatFox Dave who is 58% ATS (35-25-2) in college football Best Bets this season, including 67% ATS (22-11-2) during a run of 10 straight weeks of .500 or better. StatFox Gary is 55% ATS (18-15-1) in college football Best Bets since Week 3, and StatFox Brian is in the midst of his fourth straight winning season at 51% ATS (30-29-1).

Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater completed 24-of-41 passes for 416 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT in last year’s narrow win against Cincinnati, but struggled in 2011 at Cincinnati when he completed 17-of-28 passes for 195 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT in the loss. The junior is amid another strong season though, completing 71.0% of his passes for 3,268 yards (9.5 YPA), 25 TD and just 3 INT. His top two targets have been Damian Copeland (655 rec. yards, 4 TD) and DeVante Parker (639 rec. yards, 9 TD), while three other receivers have at least three TD receptions each. On the ground, Dominique Brown (704 rush yards, 5.5 YPC, 7 TD) and Senorise Perry (550 rush yards, 4.6 YPC, 6 TD) lead the way. Perhaps most impressive about the Cardinals this year has been their defense, which gives up a mere 11.4 PPG, the third fewest in the nation. The rush defense allows a phenomenal 2.7 YPC while opposing passers are completing only 50.8% of their passes

The Bearcats also have a stingy defense, giving up 18.5 PPG (10th fewest nationally) and are also tough against the run with 3.0 YPC allowed. Also like the Cardinals, the offense is led by a strong passing attack. QB Munchie Legaux struggled in last season’s contest against Louisville, throwing three picks, but Brendon Kay (2,817 pass yards, 22 TD, 9 INT) is back taking the snaps this year and has thrown for 811 yards and 6 TD in the past two games. He also has four rushing scores on the season despite his 2.4 YPC average. Chris Moore (507 rec. yards, 9 TD) and Mekale McKay (405 rec. yards, 7 TD) have caught the most touchdown passes this season, while Anthony McClung (811 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Shaq Washington (736 rec. yards, 1 TD) have racked up the most yards. On the ground, Hosey Williams (575 rush yards, 5.9 YPC, 4 TD) and Ralph Abernathy (433 rush yards, 3.8 YPC, 3 TD) are the two main threats, even though Tion Green (371 rush yards, 4.6 YPC, 7 TD) picks up a lot of red zone scores.