StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 11 Kentucky visits No. 18 UNC on Saturday
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 12/14/2013  at  4:52:00 AM
  Print This Article    

KENTUCKY WILDCATS (8-2)

at NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (6-2)

Dean E. Smith Center – Chapel Hill, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 5:15 p.m. ET
Line: TBD

No. 18 North Carolina will look to take down another highly regarded team when it hosts No. 11 Kentucky on Saturday.

The Tar Heels have had a strange start to the season. They have two perplexing losses to low-level teams in Belmont and UAB, but they have beaten two top-five teams in then-No. 3 Louisville and then-No. 1 Michigan State. The Wildcats, which began the season at No. 1, have lost to both of their ranked opponents this season: Michigan State and Baylor. One of the most athletic teams in the country, Kentucky ranks seventh nationally with 44.3 RPG. They have won the battle of the boards in every game except the loss to the Bears. The Tar Heels were outrebounded by 15 in each of their losses. These two teams last met in December 2011, when the Wildcats eked out a 73-72 win at home, but failed to cover the 6.5-point spread. They also beat UNC in the 2011 NCAA Tournament. That win was their only cover against the Tar Heels in the past 10 meetings, with North Carolina racking up an 8-1-1 ATS record in that span.

Which perennial powerhouse will prevail on Saturday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a 61% ATS (80-51-5) mark, including an eye-popping 74% ATS (45-16) record since Nov. 26. StatFox Zach is leading the way at 68% ATS (17-8-1) on Best Bets, while StatFox Scott is 63% ATS (17-10), StatFox Brian is 60% ATS (15-10-1) StatFox Gary is 59% ATS (16-11-2) and StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (15-12-1).

Kentucky stud PF Julius Randle (17.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG) leads John Calipari’s talented crop of freshmen this year, earning a double-double in eight of the team’s 10 contests. Though he’s turning it over 3.5 times per game, he’s making 53.8% of his FG attempts and making 73.6% of his free throws, getting to the line 8.7 times per game. The perimeter has also been led by freshmen with SG James Young (13.9 PPG), SG Aaron Harrison (13.8 PPG) and PG Andrew Harrison (10.3 PPG, 3.5 APG) rounding out the team’s double-digit scorers. The X-factor, though, may be sophomore C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG) who at 7-feet tall can be a nasty defender and rebounder. He’s averaging a whopping 4.3 BPG and has nine blocks in two of the team’s past three contests.

The Tar Heels are led on offense by sophomore PG Marcus Paige (18.8 PPG, 4.5 APG) who has had to develop into more of a scorer on this year’s team, though some argue he is a more natural passer. He’s averaging just 12.7 PPG over the team’s past three games, though his assist production is up to 6.0 APG in those contests. In the frontcourt, sophomore PF Brice Johnson (13.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG) is making 62.2% FG and also blocking 1.4 shots per game. They need fellow PF James Michael McAdoo (13.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) to produce more, as his scoring and rebounding numbers are both down from a season ago, and he was supposed to be the leader on this roster as a junior. But they do have frontcourt depth, which should be important against Randle and Cauley-Stein. Sophomore J.P Tokoto (9.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG) has been an effective swingman despite standing at just 6-foot-5 while freshman PF Kennedy Meeks (8.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) has the frame at 6-foot-9 and 290 pounds to give anybody trouble down low.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: