Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Monday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: East Carolina -14, Total: 62.5

East Carolina enters Monday's Beef 'O' Brady’s Bowl as a double-digit favorite against an Ohio team that has lost three of its past four games.

The Pirates went 9-3 SU this season despite getting crushed in their final contest of the season against slight favorite Marshall, 59-28. That snapped a five-game winning streak for them in which they were 4-1 ATS. Overall, they went 6-5-1 ATS, but were just 2-4 ATS in non-home games. Ohio’s 51-23 win against Massachusetts to end its season was its first ATS win in five contests, with the Bobcats going 6-6 ATS over the entire year and 2-3 ATS on the road. Both schools provide big reasons to bet against them, as over the past three years, East Carolina is 0-8 ATS against teams with a winning record. But in this same timeframe, Ohio is 0-8 ATS after scoring 42+ points in its previous game. These teams have met just twice in the past 20 years, both in the late 1990's, with ECU winning both games. But the Pirates are just 1-6 SU in their past seven bowl games (dating back to 2001), while the Bobcats have won bowl games in each of the past two seasons, including a 45-14 blowout of Louisiana-Monroe in last year's Independence Bowl.

Can East Carolina win and cover the huge spread here? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 regular season and bowl season. The four experts finished the regular season a collective 51.1% ATS (120-115-7) on college football Best Bets, led by StatFox Dave's stellar 57% ATS (35-25-2) mark. This included a 64% ATS (23-13-2) record in his final 11 weeks. StatFox Gary was 2-1 ATS in the final week to finish 53% ATS (21-19-1) in the regular season. Gary was 56% ATS (20-16-1) in college football Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Brian also finished strong with a 3-1 ATS mark on Best Bets in Championship Week, giving him his fourth straight winning season of college football Best Bets at 52% ATS (33-30-1). StatFox Scott is looking to repeat a huge 2012-13 bowl season, when he posted a 71% ATS mark in Best Bets (5-2-1).

The Pirates have a prolific offense that ranked 10th nationally in passing yards (331.5 YPG) and 11th in points with 40.4 per game. Junior QB Shane Carden (3,866 pass yards, 32 TD, 10 INT) leads the attack, completing an extremely impressive 71% of his passes this season for 7.7 YPA. He isn’t really a threat with his legs, averaging 0.8 YPC, but it’s worth noting he has also rushed for 10 TD. Before a horrible game at Marshall to end the season (0 pass TD, 3 INT), Carden had thrown at least three touchdowns in five straight contests. On the ground, senior RB Vintavious Cooper (995 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 11 TD) does most of the work, and he’s come on strong late with 122.3 rushing YPG on 6.4 YPC and 5 TD over the past three contests. Carden’s No. 1 receiving option is junior WR Justin Hardy, who has caught 105 passes for 1,218 yards and eight touchdowns. Ten different Pirates have hauled in touchdown passes this season. ECU’s defense isn’t bad either, giving up 25.2 PPG, and holding six of the 12 opponents to 17 points or less. The Pirates stop the run pretty effectively (117 YPG on 3.3 YPC) while opposing quarterbacks are completing 60% of their passes for 246 YPG. ECU has forced at least one turnover in 11 of 12 games this year, totaling 21 takeaways for the season.

Ohio's offense is pretty lackluster with only 28.0 PPG (72nd in nation) with 136.3 rushing YPG (96th in FBS) and 238.5 passing YPG (58th in nation). Senior QB Tyler Tettleton has had a strong career for the Bobcats, completing 63% of his passes for 2,623 yards (7.9 YPA), 20 TD and 9 INT in his final season. But since the start of November, he has thrown for just 148.5 YPG, 3 TD and 3 INT over four games. Tettleton has two top targets in senior WR Donte Foster (63 catches, 858 yards, 6 TD), and junior WR Chase Cochran, who has a ridiculous 20.5 yards per catch for 656 yards and four touchdowns. In last year's Independence Bowl, Cochran gained 162 yards on just three catches (54.0 avg.) including a 68-yard touchdown. RB Beau Blankenship (844 rush yards, 4.6 YPC, 5 TD) also had a monster bowl game last year with four touchdowns and 104 rushing yards on 5.5 YPC. The senior is coming off one of his best games of the year as well, rushing for 124 yards on only 13 carries (9.5 YPC), including a 50-yard TD scamper in the first minute of the game against UMass. He defers many red-zone carries to fellow senior RB Ryan Boykin, who has only 399 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC, but seven touchdowns. The Bobcats defense has been average this season, allowing 26.7 PPG (66th in nation), while giving up 180 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC and 212 passing YPG on a 58% completion rate.