Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: Wednesday, 5:00 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -6, Total: 42.5

After upsetting then-No. 2 Ohio State and ruining its title hopes, No. 4 Michigan State earned a spot in Wednesday's Rose Bowl for a meeting with No. 5 Stanford in Pasadena.

The Spartans won their final nine games of the season including that Big Ten Championship victory against the Buckeyes, losing only once all year in a 17-13 defeat to Notre Dame. Giving up 12.7 PPG (4th-fewest in FBS), they feature one of the nation’s top defenses and held six BCS conference opponents to single-digit point totals. Stanford also features an elite defense with 18.6 PPG allowed (10th-fewest in FBS), and lost twice this season (at Utah and at USC), but played a tougher schedule, finishing with back-to-back wins against ranked teams in Notre Dame and Arizona State. The Cardinal finished 7-6 ATS while covering in five of their past seven games, while Michigan State went 8-4-1 ATS with covers in five of its final six contests. The Spartans went 7-0 ATS against teams that completed at least 58% of their passes this year and are 7-0 ATS on the road versus winning teams in the past two seasons. But Stanford is 9-1 ATS on the road versus good teams (10+ PPG margin) since 2011, and 17-6 ATS (74%) after 2+ straight SU wins under head coach David Shaw. While both schools have no major injuries to deal with, Michigan State will not have the services of suspended star LB Max Bullough.

Which elite defense will stand tallest in the Rose Bowl? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 regular season and bowl season. The four experts finished the regular season a collective 51.1% ATS (120-115-7) on college football Best Bets, led by StatFox Dave's stellar 57% ATS (35-25-2) mark. This included a 64% ATS (23-13-2) record in his final 11 weeks. StatFox Gary was 2-1 ATS in the final week to finish 53% ATS (21-19-1) in the regular season. Gary was 56% ATS (20-16-1) in college football Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Brian also finished strong with a 3-1 ATS mark on Best Bets in Championship Week, giving him his fourth straight winning season of college football Best Bets at 52% ATS (33-30-1). StatFox Scott is looking to repeat a huge 2012-13 bowl season, when he posted a 71% ATS mark in Best Bets (5-2-1).

The Spartans defense was nasty against the run all year, giving up only 80 YPG on 2.7 YPC. They were possibly even better against the pass, with opposing signal callers completing only 47% of their attempts for 167 YPG and 5.1 YPA. On the offensive end, sophomore QB Connor Cook took excellent care of the ball with only five interceptions in 344 pass attempts, completing 58.4% of his throws for 2,423 yards (7.0 YPA) and 20 touchdowns. He distributed the ball across a number of targets, as three different receivers had at least 450 receiving yards, led by senior WR Bennie Fowler who had a team-high 525 receiving yards and six touchdowns. On the ground, junior RB Jeremy Langford was a workhorse with 269 carries for 1,338 yards (5.0 YPC) and 17 TD. He has at least 100 rushing yards in eight consecutive games, finding the end zone 13 times on the ground during this streak.

Like Langford, Stanford senior RB Tyler Gaffney is an absolute machine, taking the ball a whopping 306 times for 1,618 yards (5.3 YPC) and 20 TD. He had nine 100-yard rushing games for the season and averaged 161 rushing YPG with 4 TD over the team’s final two contests. Junior QB Kevin Hogan (2,487 pass yards, 9.0 YPA, 20 TD, 9 INT) was effective under center, completing 61.4% of his passes, including a 66.1% completion rate during the current three-game win streak. He found dynamic junior WR Ty Montgomery for 10 touchdowns through the air, while Montgomery racked up a team-high 937 receiving yards on 16.2 yards per catch. WR Devon Cajuste is also a big-play threat, totaling 591 yards and five touchdowns, while averaging 21.9 yards per reception. Defensively, the Cardinal was fantastic against the run, yielding just 92 YPG on 3.0 YPC, while the pass defense was inconsistent, allowing opponents to complete 62% of their passes for 248 YPG and 6.2 YPA. Stanford had zero games of 3+ takeaways though, compared to four by Michigan State, including three of the past four games.