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No. 8 South Carolina, No. 19 Wisconsin meet on Jan. 1
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 1/1/2014  at  5:05:00 AM
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WISCONSIN BADGERS (9-3)
vs. SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (10-2)

Capital One Bowl
Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: Wednesday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Wisconsin -2, Total: 51

No. 19 Wisconsin enters Wednesday's Capital One Bowl as the slight favorite against No. 8 South Carolina, with both teams featuring a top-notch defense.

Led by star DE Jadeveon Clowney, the Gamecocks defense gave up 20.0 PPG this year (13th in FBS), while the stingy Badgers defense yielded 14.8 PPG, good for fifth-fewest in the nation. Wisconsin’s offensive attack is based heavily on the ground where it tallied 283 rushing YPG, eighth-most in the country, but the Gamecocks also ran for more than 200 YPG with 205 rushing YPG (27th in FBS). Though South Carolina finished the season just 6-6 ATS, it ended the season on a five-game SU winning streak, going 4-1 ATS during that streak. Wisconsin went 9-2-1 ATS, but both of those ATS losses came in its final two contests of the year. This will be the first time these programs have met on the gridiron, and both schools have plenty of positive betting trends. The Gamecocks are 22-8 ATS (73%) on the road versus good rushing defenses (3.25 or less YPC) since 1992, while the Badgers benefit from Gary Andersen going 19-4 ATS (83%) in non-conference games as a college head coach.

Which highly-ranked school will emerge victorious on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 regular season and bowl season. The four experts finished the regular season a collective 51.1% ATS (120-115-7) on college football Best Bets, led by StatFox Dave's stellar 57% ATS (35-25-2) mark. This included a 64% ATS (23-13-2) record in his final 11 weeks. StatFox Gary was 2-1 ATS in the final week to finish 53% ATS (21-19-1) in the regular season. Gary was 56% ATS (20-16-1) in college football Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Brian also finished strong with a 3-1 ATS mark on Best Bets in Championship Week, giving him his fourth straight winning season of college football Best Bets at 52% ATS (33-30-1). StatFox Scott is looking to repeat a huge 2012-13 bowl season, when he posted a 71% ATS mark in Best Bets (5-2-1).

On the ground for Wisconsin, sophomore RB Melvin Gordon and senior RB James White split the carries and combined for 25 rushing touchdowns, with the offense racking up a whopping 35 rushing TD. Gordon led the team with 1,466 rushing yards on 8.1 YPC with 12 TD, while White gained 1,337 yards on 6.4 YPC with 13 TD. White also ranked third on the team with 292 receiving yards. Sophomore QB Joel Stave runs the offense effectively, completing 62% of his passes for 2,414 yards (7.5 YPA), 20 TD and 12 INT. Senior WR Jared Abbrederis (73 catches, 1,051 yards, 7 TD) was Stave’s top option, though eight different Wisconsin players reeled in touchdown passes. The Badgers defense was tenacious both against the run (102 YPG on 3.2 YPC) and pass (193 YPG, 51.1% completions) this year, with opponents averaging only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The Badgers also generated multiple turnovers seven times this season, including four of the past six games.

The South Carolina offense was more balanced between the run (205 YPG) and pass (248 YPG) with senior QB Connor Shaw leading the efficient unit. He completed 61% of his passes for 2,135 yards (8.2 YPA) and 21 TD, but most importantly threw only one interception in 259 attempts all season. Junior WR Bruce Ellington (43 catches, 635 yards, 6 TD) leads the receiving corps while junior WR Damiere Byrd (33 catches, 575 yards, 4 TD) is also a threat with all four touchdowns coming versus SEC foes. On the ground, sophomore RB Mike Davis led the team with 1,134 yards on 5.8 YPC, and found the end zone 11 times. However, after starting the season with a seven-game touchdown streak, he has just one score in his team's past five games. Shaw also helps out the ground game, rushing for 511 yards (3.7 YPC) and five touchdowns, giving opposing defenses a lot to worry about every time he drops back. Despite its pithy amount of points allowed, South Carolina’s defense wasn’t as stingy on paper as Wisconsin’s, giving up 142 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC, and 203 passing YPG on 7.1 yards per pass attempt. But the Gamecocks have kept scoring low with an opportunistic defense that has forced 26 turnovers this season, including 15 takeaways over the past four games.


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