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Pacers visit Wolves on Wednesday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 2/19/2014  at  5:43:00 AM
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INDIANA PACERS (41-12)

at MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (25-28)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Indiana -3.5, Total: 197.5

The Pacers visit the Timberwolves on Wednesday night with both teams looking to pick up a second straight victory.

Indiana played the Hawks in its first game back from the All-Star break and came away with a 108-98 home victory, pushing the 10-point spread. The Pacers had lost two of three going into All-Star weekend, including scoring a pathetic 73 points on 32% FG in a home loss to Dallas last Wednesday, so Tuesday was a much-needed victory for this team. Minnesota has not played since last Wednesday, but did win that game handily, 117-90, at home over the Nuggets to snap a four-game losing skid. That makes the Timberwolves 15-11 SU (12-14 ATS) at Target Center this season, while Indiana is a strong 15-9 SU (14-10 ATS) on the road. These teams last met on Nov. 25 in a game the Pacers rolled to a 98-84 victory, outshooting their opponent 50% FG to 33% FG. That gives Indiana an 8-4 advantage (SU and ATS) in this series since 2008, including 4-1 (SU and ATS) in the past five meetings. But the club is just 2-6 SU (4-4 ATS) in its past eight visits to Minnesota, including a 96-94 loss in the most recent road meeting on Nov. 9, 2012. Both clubs have positive betting trends for Wednesday, as the Pacers are 9-1 ATS this season when playing four or less games in 10 days, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS against Central division opponents this season. But while Indiana's roster is virtually injury-free, the Timberwolves are still missing two of their top three scorers in SG Kevin Martin (thumb) and C Nikola Pekovic (ankle) who have combined for 37.0 PPG this season.

Can the short-handed Wolves overcome a strong Pacers team on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The five StatFox experts have been sizzling with a 61% ATS record (19-12-1) since Feb. 10, making them 53% ATS (144-129-7) since Dec. 1. StatFox Zach has a stellar 59% ATS mark (31-22-3) on Best Bets since Dec. 1 and is 54% ATS (42-36-3) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave has a strong 59% ATS (33-23-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1 and is 54% ATS (43-37-1) on Best Bets for the season, while StatFox Brian is catching fire, going 74% ATS (14-5-1) since Jan. 25 and 60% ATS (29-19-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12.

Indiana's offense remains the one weak point for this team with legitimate championship hopes. The club averages only 98.7 PPG (20th in NBA) and 20.5 APG (22nd in league) despite decent shooting percentages of 45.4% FG (12th in NBA) and 35.2% threes (19th in league). But not only is this an excellent rebounding squad with a +4.5 RPG margin (2nd in NBA), it is also the league's best defensive team, allowing an NBA-best 90.5 PPG on a league-best 41.2% FG and strong 33.3% threes (2nd in NBA). The Pacers came back from the break and handled Atlanta rather easily in a 108-98 victory. SF Paul George (22.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.8 SPG) was excellent on Tuesday with 26 points (8-of-18 FG, 4-of-8 threes) in just 28 minutes, keeping him fresh enough to log his typical 36.0 MPG on Wednesday. George also had 26 points (10-of-16 FG) with eight rebounds, four assists and four steals in the first meeting with Minnesota this season. Also excellent in that game was PG George Hill (11.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.6 APG), who had 26 points (9-of-13 FG) and seven assists to go along with five steals. Hill has played well for the Pacers recently too, averaging 16.4 PPG, 6.4 APG and 4.6 RPG over the past five games where he has a stellar 4.0 Ast/TO ratio (32 Ast, 8 TO). PF David West (13.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG) has also been on a tear lately, averaging 19.6 PPG (64% FG) and 5.6 RPG over the past five contests. SG Lance Stephenson (14.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 5.2 APG) had 13 points, seven assists and five rebounds in Tuesday's win over Atlanta. Stephenson should have an even bigger game than he did versus Minnesota on Nov. 25 (11 points, 8 boards) with the Timberwolves thin at the shooting guard position. C Roy Hibbert (11.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.5 BPG) benefits from the absence of Nikola Pekovic who was a big reason why Hibbert scored a paltry four points on 2-of-7 FG in 27 minutes in the first meeting between these teams this season.

Minnesota's offense is much more explosive than Indiana's offense, as the team averages 105.5 PPG (4th in NBA), but it shoots a paltry 43.6% FG and 34.3% threes, with both rates ranking fifth-worst in the league. Although this club shares the basketball well with 23.3 APG (6th in NBA) and grabs a hefty 45.7 RPG (3rd in league), it does not thrive on the defensive end of the court. The Wolves rank 21st in the NBA in scoring defense (101.8 PPG allowed) and have the league's worst shooting defense that allows 46.8% FG, including 36.3% threes. Minnesota continues to lean on All-Star PF Kevin Love (25.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 4.0 APG) who averaged 31.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG and 4.5 APG in the two games before the All-Star break. He scored 20 points on 6-of-20 FG with 17 rebounds in the first meeting this season with Indiana, and will need to shoot much better that that if the Timberwolves are going to have any chance to beat the Pacers. PG Ricky Rubio (8.9 PPG, 8.3 APG, 4.5 RPG, 2.5 SPG) has played well as of late, averaging 14.6 PPG, 8.2 APG, 4.6 RPG and 2.0 SPG over the past five games. In the team's last game against Denver, Rubio had seven steals in 33 minutes. He will need to harass George Hill defensively and not allow any open threes, something he did adequately in the Nov. 25 meeting when he tallied five steals to go along with a near triple-double of seven points, nine rebounds and seven assists. PG J.J. Barea (8.7 PPG, 3.5 APG) has been coming up in trade talks recently, but he must perform for the Timberwolves while he is still in uniform. He had 18 points in 18 minutes against the Nuggets in a perfect shooting night (8-of-8 FG, 2-of-2 threes), but scored just six points on 3-of-11 FG in the Nov. 25 meeting with Indiana. With SG Kevin Martin out indefinitely, the Timberwolves need scoring from anywhere they can get it.


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