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James set to return Thursday to face Knicks
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 2/27/2014  at  6:04:00 AM
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NEW YORK KNICKS (21-36)

at MIAMI HEAT (40-14)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -10, Total: 201

The Knicks look to snap a three-game losing streak Thursday when they visit a sizzling Heat team that has not only won five straight games, but will likely have LeBron James back on the court.

New York is really struggling this month with a putrid 2-9 SU record (4-7 ATS), and its defense has been horrific over the past three games, allowing 115.3 PPG on 47.1% FG. Miami, on the other hand, has now won five straight games (4-0-1 ATS) and is 8-1 SU (6-2-1 ATS) in the month of February, holding six of those opponents to 97 points or less. Superstar SF LeBron James (broken nose) is expected to play in this game after sitting out on Sunday. Despite their horrible 9-17 SU road record, the Knicks are an even 13-13 ATS away from home, while the Heat are 21-4 SU at home, but just 9-16 ATS (36%, 5th-worst in NBA). The teams have met twice this season, with both games occurring at Madison Square Garden and ending with double-digit margins -- a 102-92 New York win on Jan. 9 and a 106-91 Miami victory on Feb. 1. The Knicks hold the surprising 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS advantage in this series in the past eight meetings, including two blowout road wins last season (112-92 and 102-90). New York is 7-0 ATS after a game where it made at least 85% of its free throws this season, and 24-12 ATS revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100+ points over the past two seasons. However, the Heat are 34-18 ATS in the second half of the season since the start of the 2012-13 campaign. The Knicks will be without SF Iman Shumpert (knee) for this contest, but PG Raymond Felton is expected to play despite being arrested on gun charges earlier this week.

Can the Heat pick up a double-digit win over the reeling Knicks? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The five StatFox experts have been heating up in NBA Best Bets recently with a 61% ATS record (39-25-1) since Feb. 10. StatFox Dave has a stellar 60% ATS (38-25-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1 and is 55% ATS (48-39-1) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Zach has a strong 59% ATS mark (35-24-3) on Best Bets since Dec. 1 and is 55% ATS (46-38-3) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Brian is really catching fire, going 72% ATS (18-7-1) since Jan. 25 and 61% ATS (33-21-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12.

The Knicks have been a decent defensive team this season with 99.8 PPG allowed (12th in the NBA), but rank among the bottom-10 clubs in the league in scoring (97.9 PPG, 21st), assists (20.5 PPG, 25th) and rebounding (40.7 RPG, 26th). They are currently in 10th place in the Eastern Conference standings, sitting five games behind the eighth and final playoff spot. SF Carmelo Anthony (28.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG) has been doing everything he can to keep his teams in games, averaging an incredible 41.3 PPG (53% FG, 53% threes), 7.0 RPG and 3.3 APG over the past four contests. His efforts have not translated to wins, but he has been a big part of his team's recent success against the Heat, averaging a robust 34.8 PPG (50% FG, 45% threes), 6.5 RPG and 3.5 APG in the past six meetings in this series. SG J.R. Smith (12.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.1 APG) had a solid game in Monday's loss to the Mavericks, finishing with 15 points and seven assists, and shot extremely well in the most recent meeting with Miami, netting 20 points on 6-of-11 FG (4-of-7 threes). He will need to have a similarly big game against the Heat as he is one of the only other Knicks players capable of getting his shot off easily. C Tyson Chandler (8.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.4 BPG) was also solid in his lone meeting with the Heat this season on Feb. 1, finishing with eight points, 11 rebounds and two blocks. Chandler will need to be on his game defensively, as he will be guarding a red-hot Chris Bosh. PF Earl Clark (5.2 PPG) and SG Shannon Brown (2.3 PPG) should be set to make their Knicks debuts as both were signed to 10-day contracts earlier this week.

The Heat have been getting the job on both ends of the court, scoring 104.1 PPG (8th in NBA) on a league-high 50.8% FG with 23.5 APG (6th in NBA). Defensively, they allow just 98.4 PPG (8th in league), which is a pretty remarkable number considering how poorly they hit the glass (NBA-worst 36.7 RPG). Miami's win streak has put the club just two games behind the top-seeded Pacers in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James (26.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 6.5 APG) expects to play with a protective mask, which is bad news for New York considering his gaudy career numbers against them (27.9 PPG, 49% FG, 7.2 RPG, 6.9 APG, 2.2 SPG), including 31.0 PPG (64% FG), 6.5 RPG, 6.5 APG and 3.5 SPG this season. He will need to be on his game defensively again as he will likely see plenty of time guarding the red-hot Carmelo Anthony. SG Dwyane Wade (18.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.9 APG) shouldered the load in Sunday's win over Chicago with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, and he hasn't missed many shots versus New York this season with 22.5 PPG on 21-of-30 FG (70%), 4.0 RPG and 3.0 APG in the two meetings. He could look for his offense more this game if James is bothered by his protective mask. PF Chris Bosh (17.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG) is averaging 22.8 PPG and 7.2 RPG during his team's five-game win streak, and he too might need to take more shots due to James' status. But Bosh has been horrible in this series this season, averaging a paltry 5.0 PPG on 5-of-21 FG (24%), which is a far cry from his 19.5 PPG (48% FG) and 8.8 RPG in 38 career games versus the Knicks.


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