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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

NASCAR heads to Vegas on Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 3/9/2014  at  4:54:00 AM
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Kobalt 400

Sunday, March 9 3:00 p.m. EDT
Las Vegas Motor Speedway - Las Vegas, NV

The NASCAR circuit stays on the West Coast as the teams travel north from Phoenix to Sin City for Sunday's Kobalt 400. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile, D-shaped oval track completed in 1996. It was built with bankings measuring a hefty 20 on turns, and 9 banking on the frontstretch and backstretch, which are both exactly 3,330 feet (0.63 miles). The speedway is always rocking with a seating capacity exceeding 250,000 fans, and Matt Kenseth is the defending champion of this race.

Odds to Win Race

(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)

DriverOdds
Jimmie Johnson5-to-1
Kyle Busch7-to-1
Matt Kenseth7-to-1
Kevin Harvick8-to-1
Brad Keselowski10-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.10-to-1
Joey Logano12-to-1
Clint Bowyer12-to-1
Kasey Kahne12-to-1
Denny Hamlin15-to-1
Jeff Gordon15-to-1
Brian Vickers20-to-1
Carl Edwards20-to-1
Ryan Newman20-to-1
Tony Stewart25-to-1
Kurt Busch25-to-1
Greg Biffle40-to-1
Jamie McMurray40-to-1
Kyle Larson50-to-1
Austin Dillon60-to-1
Martin Truex Jr.60-to-1
Paul Menard75-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.100-to-1
Trevor Bayne300-to-1
Aric Almirola300-to-1
Jeff Burton300-to-1
Marcos Ambrose300-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver)500-to-1
Justin Allgaier500-to-1
David Ragan500-to-1
David Gilliland500-to-1
Casey Mears500-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger500-to-1
Danica Patrick500-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Tony Stewart (25/1) - Two poor starts to the 2014 season have certainly affected Stewart's odds in this race from last year when he went off at a much more chalky 8-to-1 price. However, this is a driver that has a pair of top-2 finishes at this track over the past three years, placing second in 2011 before winning the race in 2013. He actually has eight top-7 finishes in 15 starts in Las Vegas, and with odds that aren't likely to be this favorable again, now is the time to put your largest wager on Stewart, who is our pick to win Sunday's race.

Carl Edwards (20/1) - Edwards' odds for Sunday's race are doubled from his 10-to-1 price last year, which makes him an even more intriguing play. Edwards has led both races this season, and finished a strong 8th in Phoenix last week. Speaking of strong, Edwards has an average finish of 6.7 in his past seven starts in Las Vegas, a run that includes two wins (2008 and 2011) and two other top-5's, which have both occurred in the past two Sin City starts. This great track record makes the No. 99 car worth dropping a small wager on.

Matt Kenseth (7/1) - Of the four chalkiest racers on the board with single-digit odds, Kenseth provides better value than the other three (Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick). Not only is Kenseth the defending champion of this race, but he has won two other times at this track in 2003 and 2004. In addition to the three victories, Kenseth has three other top-5's, which have all occurred since 2006. Kenseth always races well on intermediate tracks and has gotten off to a strong start to the 2014 season with an average finish of 9.0 in the two races.

Martin Truex, Jr. (60/1) - As darkhorse picks go, don't forget about Truex, who will provide a much heftier payout than he would have last year at this race when he was tabbed with a 30-to-1 price. Truex started the season in the front row at Daytona, but a blown engine sealed his fate after just 30 laps, and he has also been strong in Las Vegas with a pair of top-8 finishes in two of his past three starts, placing 6th in 2011 and 8th last year.

Jeff Burton (300/1) - Burton represents the best longshot value on the board at 300-to-1, which is up considerably from his 200-to-1 price in last year's Las Vegas race. He has placed 15th or better in 12 of his 16 starts in Las Vegas, tallying top-10s in eight of these races and an average finish of 11.9. This includes a runner-up in 1998 and back-to-back victories in 1999 and 2000. And in more recent history, Burton finished fifth in 2008 and third in 2009 at this track. With such ridiculously long odds, consider a one-unit wager with a quite a payoff.

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