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Wolves look to stay hot Thursday in Houston
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 3/20/2014  at  5:57:00 AM
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MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (34-32)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (45-22)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -7.5, Total: 214.5

The Timberwolves attempt to finish their two-game Texas road trip with wins in consecutive nights when they visit the Rockets on Thursday.

Minnesota has been a tough team to watch all season long as it has a wealth of talent and one of the top offenses in the league, but seems to just coast on defense and play below expectations. They Wolves have won their past two games SU (1-1 ATS) though, including taking down the Mavericks as six-point underdogs on Wednesday. They won 123-122 in overtime of a game in which both teams had nearly identical stats. Minnesota is now two games over .500 for the first time since Nov. 23 with the victory. Houston looked tremendous from Jan. 28 to March 9 winning 15-of-17 games SU (11-6 ATS), but all three of a brutal three-game road trip (Oklahoma City, Chicago and Miami). The Rockets regained their footing on Monday when they took the Jazz to the woodshed in a 124-86 win as 12.5-point favorites while shooting 58.2% from the field. The Rockets should be happy to be in the confines of their own arena as not only are the Timberwolves not the best road team, going 15-19 SU (19-15 ATS), but Houston is one of the best home teams in the NBA, putting together a 27-7 SU record while going 17-14-3 ATS. The season series has gone to the Rockets so far as they have won each of the two games SU and ATS; one at home and one on the road. They traveled to Minnesota on Feb. 10 and embarrassed their opponent with a 107-89 rout. Houston easily covered the four-point spread in that game while holding the Wolves to just 35.6% FG. This series has been close going back three seasons with the Rockets holding a slight 5-4 SU edge (4-5 ATS). Both teams have positive betting trends for Thursday as Minnesota is 14-3 ATS (82%) when revenging a home loss versus an opponent this season, while Kevin McHale is 17-3 ATS (85%) at home after his team failed to cover 4 or 5 of its previous six games since taking over as the team's head coach. Injuries could play a role in deciding this game, as both teams will likely be without important big men. For the Timberwolves, C Nikola Pekovic (ankle) is expected to miss the game while C Dwight Howard (ankle) is also expected to not play for Houston.

Can the Timberwolves stay hot in a tough environment on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. StatFox Dave has a strong 56% ATS (43-34-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1, while StatFox Brian remains red-hot, going 60% ATS (24-16-1) since Jan. 25 and 57% ATS (39-30-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12. StatFox Gary is also heating up with a 59% ATS mark (13-9) since Feb. 13, while StatFox Zach is on a 6-1 ATS run since March 9.

On Wednesday, the Timberwolves proved once again what type of offensive firepower they can bring on any night, and are averaging 106.3 PPG (4th in NBA) this season. Their 123 points against Dallas marked the 11th time this season that they have scored 120+ points. They’ve struggled on defense though, allowing their opponents to score 102.8 PPG (9th-worst in league) for the season, and 108.2 PPG over their past five games. PF Kevin Love (26.5 PPG, 12.8 RPG) has been the second-best rebounder in the league this season and leads all players in double-doubles with 54 in his 63 games played, but could not record one Wednesday night (35 points, 8 rebounds.) He has averaged 19.4 PPG (47% FG) with 11.7 RPG over 16 career games when facing Houston and has been absolutely unstoppable (29.0 PPG, 12.5 RPG) against them in two meetings this season. SG Kevin Martin (19.5 PPG, 39% threes) has put up 23.0 PPG (42% FG) over his past five games and scored 19 points in Wednesday night’s victory. He played in only one game this season against the Rockets, scoring 19 points on 7-of-19 shooting, which included going 3-for-6 from behind the arc. PG Ricky Rubio (9.1 PPG, 8.6 APG, 4.5 RPG, 2.5 SPG) came away with a huge triple-double (22 points, 15 assists, 10 rebounds) while adding four steals on Wednesday, but has averaged just 7.0 PPG (26% FG) to go along with 8.5 APG, 6.0 RPG and 2.5 SPG against Houston this season in two games.

While the Timberwolves’ offense has been stellar, the Rockets actually boast a better one, scoring the third-most points in the league (106.4 PPG). They bump that average up slightly when playing at home, getting 107.9 PPG (48% FG) over 34 games. Their defense has not been great lately though, allowing the opposition to net 105.8 PPG on 45% FG over the past five games, a much worse number than the 101.7 PPG (17th in NBA) they are giving up on the season. SG James Harden (24.6 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.7 RPG, 1.5 SPG) has scored 28+ points in 5-of-9 March contests but scored just 15 points with five assists in the blowout win over the Jazz on Monday. He did not have his best game the one time he faced the Timberwolves this season either, scoring 19 points on just 4-of-14 shooting while adding five rebounds and five assists. SF Chandler Parsons (16.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG) is in the midst of a rough stretch over his past three games, hitting only 8-of-25 shots (32%) while averaging 5.7 PPG and 1.7 RPG. He’s done well against Minnesota this season though, compiling 17.0 PPG (54% FG), 5.0 APG and 4.5 RPG in the two games. PF Terrance Jones (11.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.3 BPG) broke out on Monday night, scoring 30 points with five rebounds and four blocks and will need another big game if Dwight Howard does in fact miss Thursday's action. Jones' 16.0 PPG (67% FG) and 5.0 RPG have been a big help in the two wins over Minnesota this season.


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