Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -12.5

Saturday's marquee matchup takes place in Tallahassee when No. 5 Notre Dame visits defending national champion No. 2 Florida State.

The Irish have started their 2014 campaign with six straight SU wins by an average of 17.3 PPG while going 4-2 ATS. In that time they have done well on defense, forcing teams to turn the ball over multiple times in 5-of-6 contests while having their worst performance to date last week against North Carolina. They went into the weekend as large 16.5-point favorites over the Tar Heels at home and actually trailed by a point (36-35) heading into the final quarter before eventually prevailing in a 50-43 victory. The two teams combined for 1,029 yards of total offense while Notre Dame looked sloppy and turned the ball over on three occasions. Florida State also brings a perfect record into this one but has not been as dominant as most would have thought, going 1-5 ATS. The 'Noles have not really faced a team of top caliber yet, with Clemson being the only spread near single digits (-10), and they did not overwhelm Syracuse last week as expected. As 23.5-point favorites on the road, the Seminoles captured a 38-20 victory from the Orange as they totaled 482 yards of offense while forcing three turnovers. Their defense did not do its job though, allowing 412 yards of offense to their opponent with 256 of those yards coming through the air from a team that ranks in the bottom half of FBS in that category. These programs have faced each other just once in the past decade when they met in the 2011 Citrus Bowl when FSU came away with an 18-14 win despite rushing for a meager 41 yards on 1.4 YPC. Trends show us that the Fighting Irish are a solid 25-7 ATS (78%) in October road games since 1992 while the Seminoles are 21-8 ATS (75%) after failing to cover the spread in four of their past five games over this same timeframe. As far as injuries go, Notre Dame has no significant ones to speak of, while WR Rashad Greene (foot) and HB Karlos Williams (ankle) have both been upgraded to probable for Florida State.

Can Florida State cover the hefty spread versus an undefeated Notre Dame squad? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (6-3) in Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Notre Dame has been able to conquer opposing defense with a balanced offense that has posted 34.5 PPG while gaining 280.5 YPG through the air (34th in FBS) and 163.8 YPG on the ground (69th in nation). QB Everett Golson (1,683 pass yards, 16 TD, 4 INT) started out the season without a turnover in the first three contests, but since has thrown four picks while seeing his completion percentage drop to 51% in the past two games. Still, his overall season has been impressive, as Golson has thrown for 295+ yards in 3-of-6 games while having multiple passing touchdowns in each contest and contributing to the run game with 209 yards (3.6 YPC) and four scores. HB Tarean Folston (263 rush yards, 2 TD) leads the backfield with 60 attempts (4.4 YPC) while being the workhorse last week with 98 yards on 18 attempts (5.4 YPC) with 2 TD. HBs Greg Bryant (201 rush yards, 2 TD) and Cam McDaniel (181 rush yards, 2 TD) also contribute plenty to the rushing attack with 43+ attempts each. WR William Fuller (504 rec yards, 7 TD) has 16 more receptions (35) than the next closest receiver while grabbing at least six balls in 4-of-6 games and reaching the century mark in two of the past three contests. Through the first five games of the year, the defense for the program allowed a miniscule 12.0 PPG to its opponents, and despite last week's poor performance, still ranks eighth in the nation in scoring defense (17.2 PPG). The duo of LBs Jaylon Smith (49 tackles, 2 sacks) and Joe Schmidt (48 tackles) hope they can get the Irish back on track this week.

Florida State is once again among the elite in passing this season, whipping the pigskin around for 324 YPG (13th in nation) while scoring 39.0 PPG (20th in FBS). QB Jameis Winston (1,605 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has not looked quite as composed this season amongst a one-game suspension and now allegations that he accepted money for his autograph, but was able to put all of that aside last week against Syracuse as he had his best performance of the year. He was an efficient 30-for-36 (83.3%) with 317 yards (8.8 YPA) and three touchdowns (0 INTs) in the road victory. HB Karlos Williams (353 rush yards, 5 TD) missed last week due to an ankle injury after having double-digit carries in four of the first five games, but is expected to suit up for this tough battle. If he is not able to play, or is still less than 100 percent, expect freshman HB Dalvin Cook (250 rush yards, 3 TD) to take on the starter’s role after an impressive performance (23 attempts, 122 yards, 1 TD) as the lead back last week when he gained 122 yards on 23 carries (5.3 YPC) with a touchdown. WR Rashad Greene (683 rec yards, 3 TD) is the team’s leader in receptions (44) while getting six or more catches in four of the six games on the year. He has not been the team’s biggest red-zone threat though, as WR Jesus Wilson (262 rec yards, 4 TD) has the most scores through the air while playing in the slot. The Seminoles defense ranks among the nation's top-50 in yards allowed (358.5 YPG) while giving up 20.7 PPG (30th in FBS) behind the leadership of LBs Reggie Northrup (50 tackles, 1 sack), Terrance Smith (49 tackles, 2 TFL) and DB Jalen Ramsey (45 tackles, 1 INT, 5 TFL).