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Patriots look to stay hot Sunday vs. Bears
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/26/2014  at  5:57:00 AM
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CHICAGO BEARS (3-4)
at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: New England -6, Total: 50.5

The struggling Bears hit the road on Sunday to take on the red-hot Patriots seeking a fourth straight victory.

Chicago QB Jay Cutler was a disaster in his team's 27-14 loss to the Dolphins, throwing a pick while also losing a fumble in a game where he couldn’t get his offense going. Meanwhile, New England QB Tom Brady threw for 261 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-25 win over the Jets. He will now get to tee off against a Bears defense that was burned by Ryan Tannehill last week for 277 passing yards on 8.7 YPA. The last two games played between these teams in New England have gone Under the total, and the last time these teams met was Dec. 12, 2010, when the Patriots won 36-7 in Chicago as three-point road favorites. Cutler threw two picks in that game and the Bears had just 185 yards of total offense. New England is 11-2 ATS off a division game over the past three seasons, and also benefits from the Bears being 1-9 ATS off a non-conference game in that time. Chicago is 6-4 ATS versus AFC teams over the past three seasons though. Both teams will be short-handed on defense for this matchup, as the Bears list four defenders as questionable -- LB Lance Briggs (ribs), CB Kyle Fuller (hip), S Chris Conte (shoulder) and LB Jon Bostic (back). The Patriots will be without top DE Chandler Jones (hip) for the next month, and have two offensive linemen questionable with head injuries with G Dan Connolly and C Bryan Stork.

Can the Bears keep the score close versus the surging Patriots? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past five weeks, combining for a 58% ATS mark (45-33). StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (14-6) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 61% ATS (17-11) on the season. StatFox Dave is 64% ATS (14-8) in Best Bets during these five weeks to improve to 56% ATS (18-14) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 59% ATS (10-7) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 71% record (15-6) for the season.

Chicago will come into this game hungry for a victory, as it can’t afford to fall to 3-5 in a tough division. QB Jay Cutler (1,866 pass yards, 14 TD, 7 INT) looked horrible against the Dolphins, but he can redeem himself with a victory over the Pats. That won’t be easy though, as New England is allowing an NFL-low 208.0 yards per game through the air. This means the gameplan should feature a heavy dose of star RB Matt Forte (448 rush yards, 3 TD), who should be in for a big afternoon against a defense that is allowing 126.3 rushing yards per game (24th in NFL). Forte also has 52 receptions for 436 yards and two touchdowns through the air. Designed passes to Forte should be prevalent in this game as the Patriots should have trouble defending short passes without LB Jerod Mayo (knee, IR). WRs Alshon Jeffery (33 rec, 504 yards, 2 TD) and Brandon Marshall (31 rec, 349 yards, 5 TD) will be Cutler’s top receivers in this one. Marshall was heated after the Bears lost to the Dolphins, so expect him to come into this game with tons of emotion. Chicago’s defense is allowing 247.6 passing yards per game (20th in NFL) and 108.4 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL). The unit has looked solid at times, but it’s hard to trust them coming off of their performance last week.

New England is rolling right now and QB Tom Brady (1,705 pass yards, 13 TD, 2 INT) has been one of the league’s hottest quarterbacks. Since throwing two interceptions against the Chiefs in Week 5, Brady has nine touchdowns and zero picks. He should have no trouble throwing against this extremely beatable Chicago secondary. One player who has benefited from Brady’s superb play is RB Shane Vereen (259 rush yards, 1 TD). Vereen is another running back, like Forte, who excels when used as a pass-catcher. He had five receptions for 71 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over the Jets. The Pats will move him all around the field against the Bears. TE Rob Gronkowski (31 rec, 409 yards, 4 TD) has continued to improve on a week-to-week basis. Every single game he looks better than the one before, and is starting to look like the elite tight end he was prior to his ACL injury. Gronkowski's improvement will only make Brady and the Patriots better. New England’s pass defense should be ready to go up against the erratic Cutler in this one. Chicago might try to throw the ball away from New England's shut-down CB Darrelle Revis (1 INT).


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